Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Beeb pointing to swly setup with high level of uncertainty for Early May. Interesting times. What is almost certain that we are getting a northerly airflow by Sat/Sun that will bring snow to upland Scotland.Quite a change.

[conor123]

Wow that is one horrific chart for Bank Hol weekend, revolting stuff, thank goodness I didn't move my days off back a week and managed to get gorgeous weather yesterday and Wednesday.

[Milhouse]

It seems its payback for such a nice April. But theres been quite a lot change over the past couple of days so the BH weekend could still improve. Signs of height rises over the UK during the first week of May so positive signs there at least.

[summer blizzard]

It seems its payback for such a nice April. But theres been quite a lot change over the past couple of days so the BH weekend could still improve. Signs of height rises over the UK during the first week of May so positive signs there at least.

 

These height rises don't look like being before May 5th.. so probably second week at the earliest.

[Blessed Weather]

Oh dear! Back to horror charts on this evenings ECM & GFS runs for the start of the forthcoming Bank Holiday weekend:

 

ECM    GFS 

[Daniel*]

Oh dear! Back to horror charts on this evenings ECM & GFS runs for the start of the forthcoming Bank Holiday weekend:

 

ECM  ECM Fri 01May15.png  GFS  GFS Fri 01May15.png

Quite extraordinary -10C 850s clipping the far north at this time of year, real shock to the system.

[Mokidugway]

Even so any clear sunny spells will still be pleasant ..

[Costa Del Fal]

Glad this awful spell is happening now to be honest. Even if it sticks around it would be exceptional if it was still as bad come the end of May. Much better this now than at the start of June. The good thing is that it can only get better from this spell really.

[Evening thunder]

I guess it's what you'd expect in spring really, warm spells and cold spells. I have heard many say they like spring because of its ability to bring both summer and winter like conditions and the switches that can happen. Now it seems it's all rubbish and awful that it's not consistently above average.

 

I think 1995 was a good example of a spring with episodic warm spells and colder northerlies. Reading a post in the April/May cold spell thread 1935 and 1955 had notable cold outbreaks with snow. I believe 1955 was a good summer, as was 1975 and in particular 1995 was hot.. I hope this apparent theme of things repeating every 20 years continues this summer 

 

The GFS version looks pretty notable indeed this evening, though the ECM shows a less severe version.

 

I'm kind of interested to see any notable minima we have (though they may not be so notable down here), but at the same time I don't really want damaging frosts.

May is basically my exam season though so personally I'm no so bothered what happens this month.

Edited April 24, 2015 by Evening thunder

[knocker]

I see the GFS is looking at some nifty temps next Sat.

Chart weatherbell

 

[cheese]

 

Not again..

 

At least it's 10 days away.

[Eugene]

lol talk about cherry picking, also that's 15 days away 

[cheese]

Oh you're right, I read it as the 5th of May. It's a familiar theme though - you're an idiot if you deny that (this is Eugene I'm talking to.. doh).

Edited April 25, 2015 by cheese

[Frank Trough]

lol talk about cherry picking, also that's 15 days away 

it's good job you're further north:

 

if you lived down here you'd be reaching for the aircon and drawing the curtains again by friday.

[cheese]

it's good job you're further north:

 

if you lived down here you'd be reaching for the aircon and drawing the curtains again by friday.

He thinks that summer nights in England are unbearable so you're more than likely right..

Edited April 25, 2015 by cheese

[cheese]

Seems some people are concerned that this dry spell that has been ongoing since the start of the year will result in a wetter period - which is entirely possible, but looking through local weather records I can see 1991 was a very dry year  (Leeds had under 400mm), with only June and November being wetter than average - and in both cases it was only by a few mm, so nothing significant. Summer 1991 was warmer than average. 1990 was much the same - very dry year, with a warm (even hot) summer, with little in the way of rain.

 

2011 is also a year that was dry throughout but that summer was cool and cloudy.

 

1992 was dry as well but that summer was indeed disappointingly cool and August was wet.

 

I guess we'll wait and see.

Edited April 28, 2015 by cheese

[Richard2901]

This week hasn't been great but at least there has been sunshine as well as showers and cool winds. A lot better than the disgusting dross coming up at the weekend that's for sure:

 

Saturday - Cold and dull

Sunday - Cold, dull and wet

Monday - Cloudy with average temperatures

 

That seems to be what the models are suggesting. 3 days of totally useless write-off rubbish for the May holiday weekend as the wind sets in from the vilest possible direction of SE

 

Saturday and Sunday look as awful as Good Friday with a near nationwide grey-out.

 

This year has been exceptionally sunny and dry so far but only during the working week. Worst of the weather has always been at the weekend. 42% of this year’s rain has fallen at the weekends and 3 of the 4 wettest days this year been Saturdays or Sundays

 

Even worse it looks like Tuesday will be a glorious day and Wednesday too. No doubt Thursday as well before four days of grey gloom/rain set in on Friday as I have a long weekend up in Aviemore.

 

If there is any warm settled spell you can guarantee it will begin when I get back on the 12th and any cooler/cloudier blips will occur at the weekends. It's just incredulous.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Richard2901

[johnholmes]

 

This week hasn't been great but at least there has been sunshine as well as showers and cool winds. A lot better than the disgusting dross coming up at the weekend that's for sure:

 

Saturday - Cold and dull

Sunday - Cold, dull and wet

Monday - Cloudy with average temperatures

 

That seems to be what the models are suggesting. 3 days of totally useless write-off rubbish for the May holiday weekend as the wind sets in from the vilest possible direction of SE

 

Saturday and Sunday look as awful as Good Friday with a near nationwide grey-out.

 

This year has been exceptionally sunny and dry so far but only during the working week. Worst of the weather has always been at the weekend. 42% of this year’s rain has fallen at the weekends and 3 of the 4 wettest days this year been Saturdays or Sundays

 

Even worse it looks like Tuesday will be a glorious day and Wednesday too. No doubt Thursday as well before four days of grey gloom/rain set in on Friday as I have a long weekend up in Aviemore.

 

If there is any warm settled spell you can guarantee it will begin when I get back on the 12th and any cooler/cloudier blips will occur at the weekends. It's just incredulous.

 

 

never mind Richard things are bound to improve, try and, do what Morecambe and Wise sang, 'Always look on the bright side...'

 

this seems at odds with your comments Richard

from UK Met

 East Scotland has had its sunniest April on record, beating 1942’s 200 hours of sunshine by 2 hours and it was the second sunniest for England East and NE with 212.4 – just behind 2011 with 216.9 5 hours.

Edited May 1, 2015 by johnholmes

[Costa Del Fal]

Not too fussed if the unsettled conditions continue throughout May. The rain train cant stay on the tracks forever and will soon be derailed in the summer.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9°C and rain. I honestly can't wait until of this miserable polar maritime rubbish does one... an awful air mass.

Come on Azores High! I miss you!

 

PM air sucks all times of the year, for me anyway at low level

[stevofunnelcl]

Beginning to get a 'pet peeve'

 

It's the new forecast from NWS Storm Prediction Centre

 

old scale was:

see text, slight, moderate, high risk

 

new scale is:

marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high risk

 

When a slight risk day is upgraded to enhanced, i think that triggers a lot more chasers to make the decision to chase.

The word 'enhanced' makes it sound like another version of high risk. But it's actually below moderate risk on the scale

 

Was watching David Drummond's video feed last night, where he got a couple nado's, i also watched him drive up behind other chasers, who were

parked up on the road (rather than off to the side) - cue Drummond going into a rant, on his stream, and i don't blame him (chaser do's and don'ts)

[mushymanrob]

Seems some people are concerned that this dry spell that has been ongoing since the start of the year will result in a wetter period - which is entirely possible, but looking through local weather records I can see 1991 was a very dry year  (Leeds had under 400mm), with only June and November being wetter than average - and in both cases it was only by a few mm, so nothing significant. Summer 1991 was warmer than average. 1990 was much the same - very dry year, with a warm (even hot) summer, with little in the way of rain.

 

2011 is also a year that was dry throughout but that summer was cool and cloudy.

 

1992 was dry as well but that summer was indeed disappointingly cool and August was wet.

 

I guess we'll wait and see.

 

.... yyyyesssss ... and with good cause as yet another lengthy dry spell has ended with alot of heavy rain, and the outlook is unsettled too.

seems a pretty common occurance , long time dry breaking down into alot of heavy rain, like the scales have tipped in the complete opposite direction.

i suppose that if we get the may monsoon now, it might break by summer...

[Bradowl]

Not looking good for any long lasting summer heat, apart from a short spell early this coming week in far south east BBC news 24 long term forecast last night saying jet stream setting up to south of uk giving us a cool unsettled north westerly. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This is fast becoming a very mediocre year indeed for exciting weather. I've only heard one rumble of thunder so far, which in this location is beyond unbelievable. 

Those dreaded Greenland heights are also beginning to appear again. Lets hope that they do not come off just in time for the start of summer! That will just about finish me off I think! 

[mushymanrob]

bloody hell guys... its EARLY MAY!

what do you expect?...

 

(to the two posts above)

Edited May 9, 2015 by mushymanrob