Scotland - Weather Chat

[SW Saltire]

I'm obviously the only person who thought today wasn't that cold... Around 12c but it was v sunny until midday, intermittently thereafter. Chilly by 6pm admittedly...

[Hairy Celt]

Excellent pictures again CMD - textures and colours....  Ms HC was on the beach by Bettyhill earlier, sadly without camera but it would have been similar but possibly rather blacker at times.

[lorenzo]

ENSO is here all winter and very significant. For U.S lots, for us not so much, lots of other 'prevailing' conditions.

 

The North Atlantic SST anomaly is one of note that is already threatening to modify our expected winter and perhaps beyond...

[Northernlights]

ENSO is here all winter and very significant. For U.S lots, for us not so much, lots of other 'prevailing' conditions.

 

The North Atlantic SST anomaly is one of note that is already threatening to modify our expected winter and perhaps beyond...

And that Atlantic SST as a farmer concerns me if we get another unusual growing season with lots of grain quality problems up here in the north though yields did not suffer too much. Grass grew much better in the last 6 weeks than all summer once we got some warmth and local gardeners say summer flowering plants only thrived in the last 6 weeks.

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! Yesterday turned out to be another stonker of a day, warm in the sunshine. Rather cold here this morning, temp at 7am was 1.9 and guess what.....the central heating has still not been fixed! I feel my foot is itching to boot someone's backside soon. But off course, he'll fix it and then it'll go mild again! Best get a few more logs on the stove then.

Edited October 14, 2015 by mistyqueen

[Guest]

ENSO is here all winter and very significant. For U.S lots, for us not so much, lots of other 'prevailing' conditions.

 

The North Atlantic SST anomaly is one of note that is already threatening to modify our expected winter and perhaps beyond...

 

I know the SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is more pronounced than last year, will this have such a noticeable effect on our weather though? It's not massively different, is it? (genuine question )

 

October 2014 is 1st:

 

[tempestwatch]

I know the SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is more pronounced than last year, will this have such a noticeable effect on our weather though? It's not massively different, is it? (genuine question )

 

October 2014 is 1st:

 

SST Anomaly 13th Oct 2014.gifSST Anomaly 12th Oct 2015.gif

A number of small temporary snow events last year were because of a large plume of cold over the Atlantic. If the water is cooler then would there be less moderation of cold temperatures if the same were to happen again and so a greater chance of snow from the northwest? Is that too simple?

[Guest]

A number of small temporary snow events last year were because of a large plume of cold over the Atlantic. If the water is cooler then would there be less moderation of cold temperatures if the same were to happen again and so a greater chance of snow from the northwest? Is that too simple?

 

That makes sense to me too, I wanted Lorenzo to give a more technical insight

[skifreak]

A number of small temporary snow events last year were because of a large plume of cold over the Atlantic. If the water is cooler then would there be less moderation of cold temperatures if the same were to happen again and so a greater chance of snow from the northwest? Is that too simple?

Which is why there was so much snow fall on Western mountains in particular last winter and why it fell to lower levels than in 2014. That was the very noticeable difference between 2014 and 2015, the low level Access Runs at Glencoe were only skied a handful of days in 2014 despite record breaking snow depths burying the lifts up the mountain, but in 2015 many weeks of skiing to the base at 1200ft on Rannoch Moor was possible, indeed even mid April it was still possible to ski to around 1600ft and within 5mins walk of the carpark (main ski area at Glencoe starts at 2200ft). 

 

Of course those looking for low land snow would have been less impressed, but I'd happily take 14 or 15 again - but with less stormy weekends for the Ski Areas! 

[mistyqueen]

Well, what a difference a day makes! It's 11c this morning, calm with light cloud. But at least we don't have howling winds and horizontal rain. Time enough for that yet though.

[Guest]

Well, what a difference a day makes! It's 11c this morning, calm with light cloud. But at least we don't have howling winds and horizontal rain. Time enough for that yet though.

 

I think it's coming MQ. This morning's charts show an end in sight for the high, it looks as if it will sink far enough by about ten days from now to allow westerly winds off the Atlantic which will only mean one thing, rain.

 

Plenty of reasonable weather between now and then though, it's a cracking sunny start here in the Borders if a little chilly.

[Ravelin]

Which is why there was so much snow fall on Western mountains in particular last winter and why it fell to lower levels than in 2014. That was the very noticeable difference between 2014 and 2015, the low level Access Runs at Glencoe were only skied a handful of days in 2014 despite record breaking snow depths burying the lifts up the mountain, but in 2015 many weeks of skiing to the base at 1200ft on Rannoch Moor was possible, indeed even mid April it was still possible to ski to around 1600ft and within 5mins walk of the carpark (main ski area at Glencoe starts at 2200ft). 

 

Of course those looking for low land snow would have been less impressed, but I'd happily take 14 or 15 again - but with less stormy weekends for the Ski Areas! 

 

Less stormy I'd agree with! A combination of the best aspects of 14 & 15 for the ski areas would be nice i.e. the extensiveness and volume of the snow of 14 (15 wasn't great for snow in the east i.e. Glenshee) and the lower level of the snowline from 15 (snow line in 14 was quite high at times). I suspect that may be too much to ask though.

 

As for IMBY, 14 was just horrendously wet, cool and virtuously snow-less. 15 was better in that it was dry and cold, but still virtually snow-less.

 

Back to the present, a low of exactly 0C overnight. Bright sunny morning with a hint of frost on the grass and an icy windscreen on the car.

[Hairy Celt]

Less stormy I'd agree with! A combination of the best aspects of 14 & 15 for the ski areas would be nice i.e. the extensiveness and volume of the snow of 14 (15 wasn't great for snow in the east i.e. Glenshee) and the lower level of the snowline from 15 (snow line in 14 was quite high at times). I suspect that may be too much to ask though.

 

As for IMBY, 14 was just horrendously wet, cool and virtuously snow-less. 15 was better in that it was dry and cold, but still virtually snow-less.

 

Back to the present, a low of exactly 0C overnight. Bright sunny morning with a hint of frost on the grass and an icy windscreen on the car.

 

Personally I thought the last 2 winters were crap due to the lack of low level snow - I had barely any opportunity to get up into the hills.  I'm hoping this summer's surgery has sorted that out but it would still be good to see some snow around the towns and villages again - snow-starved kidults need it!

 

I think we must have just escaped a ground frost here due to thin cloud cover all night, and that looks set to persist - a very milky sky just now.

[Hawesy]

Evening all,

Pleasant day in NE Fife after the fog cleared. Overnight low of 0.0c at Leuchars but 6c here in Crail. We don't get usually get an air frost until the second half of November.

[Ravelin]

Another low around freezing last night with a touch of grass frost and a frozen car windscreen. A bit cloudier today so far, but far from unpleasant as its dry and windless.

[A Winter's Tale]

Another fine day of autumnal sunshine after a low of -1C. It's been a very dry autumn so far although I think it's only a matter of time before we get some proper autumnal wet and windy weather.

[Northernlights]

Started making a road through the neeps.Usually the leaves are soaking at this time of year but today they are almost dry. Hazy sun all day calm and a maximum of 12c after 4c early am. Very pleasant to be outside. Digging a bit in the garden and soil dry and not to heavy as a result.

[grifter]

Apologies if this sounds doommongerish but I hope this "cold" spell we are having now, at night at least, is not lulling us into a false sense of security for the rest of winter. Hope my concerned premonitions of a doom fest from Nov - Jan aren't correct

Edited October 15, 2015 by grifter

[mistyqueen]

Michty Me! Anither cauld yin this mornin', currently 1.3c, clear and sunny. I'm away to get the stove lit as the central heating is still not working! Gggggrrrrr!

[Polar Gael]

An absolutely cracking morning here. First air frost of the season with an overnight low of -0.6C.

This most benign autumn continues with a lovely sunny morning and fog in the glens. Makes Crieff look like the the enchanted town in the clouds.

A brief venture to the MOD indicates that a pattern change is on the way, but a good few days of settled and calm conditions yet before it arrives. Enjoy.

[Guest]

Apologies if this sounds doommongerish but I hope this "cold" spell we are having now, at night at least, is not lulling us into a false sense of security for the rest of winter. Hope my concerned premonitions of a doom fest from Nov - Jan aren't correct

 

I know where you're coming from but I don't think a few frosts in October will lull anyone into a false sense of security, it'd more of a worry to have high pressure in October and not have frost.

 

I can't see this winter being as bad as last year, other than that I've got no idea how it will pan out. All this chat about this indicator or that indicator or El Nino or anything else is all fine and well but there's too many factors to be certain of anything. We were all led up the garden path with the OPI last year, so we'll see what happens when it happens.

[NorthernRab]

-2'C this morning - autumn coming in apace!

[Northernlights]

Skies cleared last night and it was 1c with a ground frost  at 6.30am this morning.Fabulous blue skies today but  calm and cool with a maximum of  9c . This has been the first day that you felt it was frosty in the shade all day and so I took a thermometer to such an area where it was just 5c four feet above the ground at midday, and  very dewy underfoot .A  couple of degrees lower and the grass would  have been frozen.

[over_the_rainbow]

Touch of frost here too this morning. but been gloriously sunny. Have succumbed and popped the heating on though! 

[Northernlights]

Currently 1c so  it looks as though we will get our first proper  air frost . The runner beans may confirm it in the morning.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Northernlights