Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[A.J]

ESTOFEX LEVEL 2 SERIOUS?

no we're hacking the estofex page and making it up....lol

 

(it's real btw)

[Chris K]

ESTOFEX LEVEL 2 SERIOUS?

 

 

Its more for the rainfall then storms i think Ben, h owever, rainfall with amounts forecast are serious enough to cause significant flooding..

 

 

Over S-UK, an unseasonably moist air mass becomes entrenched in a broad low pressure channel, which runs from S-UK to Belgium/the Netherlands. Widespread CI occurs and slow moving storms will be rather effective rainfall producers. Corfidi vectors indicate training/back-building being a distinct possibility with storm motions of less than 5 kt. Excessive rain is forecast on a more widespread scale especially over far SW-UK and a level 2 was issued for the region with highest BL convergence and persistent signals of slow moving DMC activity. An isolated tornado event is also possible, given LCLs well below 1000 m and locally enhanced LL shear.

 

Sounds pretty stormy to me!

Edited June 11, 2015 by Chris K

[Ben Sainsbury]

Over S-UK, an unseasonably moist air mass becomes entrenched in a broad low pressure channel, which runs from S-UK to Belgium/the Netherlands. Widespread CI occurs and slow moving storms will be rather effective rainfall producers. Corfidi vectors indicate training/back-building being a distinct possibility with storm motions of less than 5 kt. Excessive rain is forecast on a more widespread scale especially over far SW-UK and a level 2 was issued for the region with highest BL convergence and persistent signals of slow moving DMC activity. An isolated tornado event is also possible, given LCLs well below 1000 m and locally enhanced LL shear.

 

Sounds pretty stormy to me!

It was just first glance! Sounds slightly terrifying!

[Cyclonic]

Im thinking of heading up Culver Cliffs when/if things start to kick off now have a new set of wheels

[Gordon Webb]

It was just first glance! Sounds slightly terrifying!

 

yep Wales and more western areas seem to be in for a soaking it does tie in with the met office warning

 

here's part of it

Indications are that a more organised band of heavy rain and thunderstorms will follow by Friday evening and overnight into Saturday, bringing 25 to 50 mm of rain more widely, mainly over the western half of the area. 

Edited June 11, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Chris K]

It was just first glance! Sounds slightly terrifying!

 

Generally the main issue would be the potential for localised flash flooding, for example in some water catchment areas, due to the slow movement of rainfall.

[Costa Del Fal]

Just a question how will my location ( central Cornwall ) are we supposed to get any storms tonight?

Sadly I think we will just get heavy rain now. Storms for Devon eastwards I would say. Maybe some distant night lightning possible imo.

[Gordon Webb]

Generally the main issue would be the potential for localised flash flooding, for example in some water catchment areas, due to the slow movement of rainfall.

 

good news for me if there is any that storms that form tomorrow may be south of me the heaviest rain in the evening and overnight may be west of me even though I don't expect to stay dry

 

will there be a residual cloud left over from these storms tonight that might affect those in the south tomorrow before the deluge that is expected to arrive later ?

Edited June 11, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Spikecollie]

Room for more and still flashing and rumbling, but staying in the distance. Torrential rain though. Got some great cloud photos and TOH got to hear the rain as I wa on my phone in the garden but had to go into the out building! More to come,,,

[UKSupercell]

Just a question how will my location ( central Cornwall ) are we supposed to get any storms tonight?

Looking pretty good for Devon and Cornwall, mate. 

[Chris K]

good news for me if there is any that storms that form tomorrow may be south of me the heaviest rain in the evening and overnight may be west of me even though I don't expect to stay dry

 

will there be a residual cloud left over from these storms tonight that might affect those in the south tomorrow before the deluge that is expected to arrive later ?

I mean there is always the possibility of cloud hindering storm development...but its a wait and see now game now really.

[richep]

Think I may be in a prime position for once. Would rather a dry walk to work in the morning , don't care about the way home. though. Local ITV weather gave out possible storms for somerset  tonight aswell as Devon. Quick glance at the radar before bed tonight I think, just incase.

[Spikecollie]

Good evening to all

Ok and this sounds really grose but I have a bet on with a friend that nothing will happen in Bristol.

So here's the terms of the bet.

If we get a proper thunderstorm (NOT) thundery rain I will eat a fork of dog food and have to post a video as proof that I did it.

If we don't then all beers are on him tomorrow at the pub.

I really do want storms but I can see the usual thing happening and we will get absolutely nothing.

I'm aloud ketchup on the dog food lol so that's a good thing but I'm more than happy to loose the bet have a good storm and enjoy it.

So yeah a very weird post i know but get storms very happy accept I have to eat dog food no storms and a cheap day out.

I wish everyone in the west good luck no offence little usa but you've had your turn now it's ours hopefully.

 

Good evening to all

Ok and this sounds really grose but I have a bet on with a friend that nothing will happen in Bristol.

So here's the terms of the bet.

If we get a proper thunderstorm (NOT) thundery rain I will eat a fork of dog food and have to post a video as proof that I did it.

If we don't then all beers are on him tomorrow at the pub.

I really do want storms but I can see the usual thing happening and we will get absolutely nothing.

I'm aloud ketchup on the dog food lol so that's a good thing but I'm more than happy to loose the bet have a good storm and enjoy it.

So yeah a very weird post i know but get storms very happy accept I have to eat dog food no storms and a cheap day out.

I wish everyone in the west good luck no offence little usa but you've had your turn now it's ours hopefully.

Dog food can be very gritty..don't ask now, ask me when I'm drunk. More beers in line at the neighbours! Eaten during a big thunderstorm, so on topic!

Edited June 11, 2015 by Spikecollie

[Cyclonic]

Years ago (in my toddler years) i used to be called the human barometer lol.

When ever a storm was coming i used to have pretty bad asthma attacks.

Today is no exception, so i will be disappointed if i end up in the NSC having a rant lol

 

On that note if guys are out chasing/watching the storms stay safe but enjoying the show

[Skullzrulerz]

Looking pretty good for Devon and Cornwall, mate. 

thanks

[Spikecollie]

All making it across the channel just fine at the mo. Please stay safe - Estofex may just have it right. Nice to have some rain cooled air coming in! CG just over the hill just now...So.dark for 2100, but better to see any lightning...

Edited June 11, 2015 by Spikecollie

[Mark -W-s-M]

Storm clouds brewing on the dawlish beach webcam maybe one to one for those who have membership or have the free trial for it. 

[Daniel*]

Estofex rarely I mean rarely issue a level 2 for somewhere in the British Isles thus take it seriously.

[daveywoo1977]

Looks as though it will be heavy rain for the West with a few flashes. The more potent stuff seems to be developing east of the Isle of Wight so the original progged thunderstorm risk from most models seems to be correct. I would wait for tomorrow for the main show as the low moves in more

[poseidon]

Another forecast out...

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-06-12

[TropicThunder]

It's been a perfect summer's day here. Sunny and warm/hot with temps into the mid 20's, and now into the evening hours the high level cloud is starting to roll in ahead of hopefully a nice overnight light show, the best kind of weather imo! 

 

That's some serious ramping on the Estofex warning as well for most of Europe.

[pinball wizard]

Looks like IOW, Hants, Sussex will be interesting viewing places tonight, Culver Cliff or Portsdown Hill would be my places of choice!

 

Hoping it might make it to East Anglia later

[Spikecollie]

It's been a perfect summer's day here. Sunny and warm/hot with temps into the mid 20's, and now into the evening hours the high level cloud is starting to roll in ahead of hopefully a nice overnight light show, the best kind of weather imo! 

 

That's some serious ramping on the Estofex warning as well for most of Europe.

They're not "serious ramping" they are serious about keeping folks safe - this is an event!

[Wolfgang Drill]

Hi everyone. Look sorry to bother you guys but last week I asked if we are likely to have any thunder in High Wycombe as I have a son with down syndrome and need to prepare for any adverse weather.

I am asking the same question again if anyone could help. Thank you in advance for any help. Stay safe everyone.

[Cyclonic]

Got a few webcams to look at if interested

 

 

http://www.mycampage.com/sandownisleofwightcam

 

 

http://driftwoodbeachbar.com/webcam/   (You have to put it on full screen to get rid of the steak and chips lol, also the preset viewing appears to not be working, so again the viewing is not great)

Edited June 11, 2015 by Cyclonic