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Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

first lightning strike just off the coast of Lancashire

Nice spot. Maybe that area of rain is finally intensifying? Not all hope is lost :laugh:

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

Just noticed somesome low level scud like cloud is developing for the first time here today well below the altocumulus sheet

 

Me two, a few little showers forming south of us now, can they grow

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

What is preventing that area of rain just coming into Southwestern Scotland from intensifying?? There's a huge amount of CAPE, a decent trigger, a large(ish) amount of wind shear and very high dewpoints. Don't understand it at all!?

Its detritus from earlier pop-fart storms across the SW...if it's stratified mess then it may just be dampening the energy. Shear only aids nice tall columns of air (i.e thunderheads)...it doesn't really do anything to thin layers of rain bearing clouds.

The NMM model yesterday suggested it may develop into something...wouldn't rule intensification out.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

That'll be a no then...thanks for that!

FYI Friday night's potential could affect well over 60% of the population...not just my little corner of the world.

Plus.......it would get me away from the moaning and bickering on here!!!

 

I will start a new thread tomorrow morning after we have seen the rest of today's potential (if nobody else beats me to it)....so it's a yes :)

 

And yes, Friday's potential could still be quite widespread.

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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

Its detritus from earlier pop-fart storms across the SW...if it's stratified mess then it may just be dampening the energy. Shear only aids nice tall columns of air (i.e thunderheads)...it doesn't really do anything to thin layers of rain bearing clouds.

The NMM model yesterday suggested it may develop into something...wouldn't rule intensification out.

Ah thanks for the explanation! :)

Is it actually possible for stratus clouds to transition into Cbs? Would be very interesting if that happened.

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Bolt from the Blue Enthusiast

Bolt from the Blue

Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
Posted (edited)

Today still has potential, a quote from ESTOFEX forecast:

"There are two factor that may limit the overall severity of the situation:
A/ Degree of initiation. With no strong synoptic-scale upward motion and in the capped airmass, it may be difficult to initiate storms. Initiation will be more likely in the evening hours as 850 and 700 hPa temperatures begin to drop from the west and cold front affects the area. 
B/ Stable boundary layer. Due to the very hot airmass around 850 hPa, it will require a lot of heating to destabilise the boundary layer and allow storms to root in it. Thus, especially in the early period, most storms will stay elevated (with primarily hail threat), as they move from France towards England. Surface based development will be most likely in the late afternoon and early evening hours."

Edited by jpro747
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mhielte Enthusiast

mhielte

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted

Paul Hudson's forecast for Look North just now played down the storms for tonight, describing them as isolated with most places staying dry. He mentioned the prospect of severe thunderstorms for Friday night though and Pennine areas seeing thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

I need help quick guys, Friday's potential, does it stand any realistic chance of getting here (South staffs) before 10pm??? A quick reply would be greatly appreciated as I'm trying to sort work shifts out

 

I think it will be a Friday night event this far north, although we both know how unpredictable storms can be. Current models have it arriving with us early hours of Saturday though.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

Paul Hudson's forecast for Look North just now played down the storms for tonight, describing them as isolated with most places staying dry. He mentioned the prospect of severe thunderstorms for Friday night though and Pennine areas seeing thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

 

 

Paul Hudson has been wrong many a time, hopefully this is another one ; )

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

A shockingly bad forecast...........

....by me.....I got the sun and beach correct but a total bust on the warnings for excessive quantities of Pimms, although it must be said that the Bavarian lager is rapidly destabilizing me....the good news is that outbreaks of Pimms still look likely soon...

29c here in Eastbourne, sunny with plenty of Ac Cas

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Paul Hudson has been wrong many a time, hopefully this is another one ; )

Indeed. He's the same in winter - always downplaying snow potential only for 10 inches to end up falling.. lol.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Hmm...huge curve ball from NMM WRF - wants no precip for the SE tomorrow, but instead breaking out showers and possible storms across Midlands, tracking NNE....interesting! Just how slow is this CF lol

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Hmm...huge curve ball from NMM WRF - wants no precip for the SE tomorrow, but instead breaking out showers and possible storms across Midlands, tracking NNE....interesting! Just how slow is this CF lol

 

Activity on GFS

 

ukprec.png

 

 

and Euro4 too

 

15070215_0112.gif

 

15070218_0112.gif

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Finally the altostratus layer is thinning, allowing altocumulus to form

F1FCB7FF-DF1A-47FB-AEAF-9410FA88E853_zps

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

The stuff in the Irish see may be interesting for Scotland, but for nowhere else. I can see the clouds to my west. n England need home grown showers tonight.

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)

A shockingly bad forecast...........

....by me.....I got the sun and beach correct but a total bust on the warnings for excessive quantities of Pimms, although it must be said that the Bavarian lager is rapidly destabilizing me....the good news is that outbreaks of Pimms still look likely soon...

29c here in Eastbourne, sunny with plenty of Ac Cas

Haha lol, some ac Cas around here too. Also seen some mammatus on the bottom of some underwhelming clouds including this one about 45 mins ago from Cromer. Certainly turbulence up there by the looks of things.

post-7331-0-99253800-1435774126_thumb.jp

Edited by Greenday
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Activity on GFS

 

ukprec.png

 

 

and Euro4 too

 

15070215_0112.gif

 

15070218_0112.gif

Not a lot of Cape and associated energy though. Think it will be more rain than anything.
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

The NMM 3 and 4KM look a beaut for southern areas tomorrow morning!

Edited by Mapantz
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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

Hmm that area of rain in the Irish Sea is really starting to intensify. Not electrified yet, apart from a few trailing showers off the Lancashire coast.

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Tempest Contributor

Tempest

Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
Posted

What a plonk that man of mine is! Came rushing in house to tell me he heard thunder. So i stood about for 10 mins, hearing nothing. Then a rumble and he cocked his head to the side. "Listen!" He said. Right enough, a rumble....from the folk moving their wheelie bin across the friggin road. Aaarrggghhh

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

Interesting from NAE

 

Where does this come from over northern england lol

 

15070200_0112.gif

Is this for midnight tonight, if I'm reading it right?

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