Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Harsh Climate]

Notorious for being a 'cool' weather station as well

 

Yes it certainly is, I live a few miles away and am always about 1C higher

Does all look to be dying off if I'm brutally honest

I'm dated now I finished work and found a pub. The heat is actually quite nice now :-)

 

To be fair it never really got going did it? lol

[Lauren]

Beeb still going for isolated storms around the middle of the day tomorrow just now on TV. No mention of anything happening on Friday night.

[Convective]

[Stuart]

just seen weather on bbc there a risk of storms tomorrow up here

[SnowBear]

I think those of us who've been following the weather for 20/30 years are probably a bit more relaxed. We know how random storms can be on days like this...

I'll second that! I got quite involved in hurricane tracking on here some years ago, what I learnt was that every weather event has a learning potential too, if you predict correctly or incorrectly, or if models and weather sites have a hit or a miss with a forecast, there is always learning to be had. Why didn't it go to plan, what was different, what landmass altered the track, or what changed the behaviour, what did we miss.

Sometimes failure can bring more understanding than success.

So if things don't pan out as you expect today, try to understand why and that knowledge may be useful in the future ;-)

[richep]

Beeb still going for isolated storms around the middle of the day tomorrow just now on TV. No mention of anything happening on Friday night.

Heat builds from the south again Friday ahead of thunder storms moving north friday night. Just mentioned on bbc

[Havaturkali]

Mammatus

[Harry]

Met office/BBC have French imports affecting Some of Southern England during Thursday ( although latest fax update suggests quite a delay in tomorrows eastward movement of the cold front.

Talk of 35c in the East again unlikely but i expect 30c or so ahead of it.

Friday sees the threat of further storms feading off the near continent into parts of Southern England later in the day.

Can't see another 35C myself - plus the CF is not merely a dividing line between 35C and 20C air - there are gradients within that.

Re the rants and moans, I've been following storms, clouds and charts for around 15 years so am much more relaxed. As I for one banged on about several times different models, all computated by experts in meteorology and which carry out billions of calculations a second, all said different things. When that happens it means there is much uncertainty. We said it, MetO said it, Estofex said it...serious doubt and uncertainty. As I posted last night, the weather is never wrong, merely models and interpretations are that are (IMO) about as good as they realistically can get - bear in mind every cubic foot of the of the 40-50,000ft high atmosphere cannot be monitored 24/7. They are always best guesstimates! I for one think the forecasts have been fairly accurate considering (SO FAR!!!!). I'm sat here in currently 30C heat with high humidity under clear skies, melting away....a deluge about now would be marvellous - that said I'm putting the new garden furniture to good use on another note, I have many a time has to suffer hot and humid busts (ie where storms were promised) to no avail - staying up sometimes to 2-3am. Other nights I've not bothered waiting as no real prospects to be woken by massive storms...plumes are like that...years living in Kent has taught me that (which by the way regularly rates poorly on GFS Storm charts chiefly I guess as we are surrounded by water...local knowledge/experience).

Alas, on a different note, can I propose a new separate thread for Friday night's potential??

Edited July 1, 2015 by Harry

[kev f]

AcCas firing up to the north east and in the distance beyond them bigger cumulus's.

[Harry]

Beeb still going for isolated storms around the middle of the day tomorrow just now on TV. No mention of anything happening on Friday night.

Look at Nick Miller's forecast online from about an hour ago

I suspect with the CF apparently dragging its heels there may be some model changes...his online forecast though looks awesome and not just for the South!!

[weatherobsuk]

Seen 11 lightning strikes today so it hasn't been a complete waste, just a shame the 'mega storms' forecast by all the agencies never came to fruition. Reminds me of a few years ago sitting in Lincs under 2000kg of CAPE with a LLC nearby, yet still nothing happened either.

[Harsh Climate]

Alas, on a different note, can I propose a new separate thread for Friday night's potential??

 

We haven't even got through today or tomorows potential yet.... 

 

Just because your locations best chance of storms is friday night, doesn't mean it warrants a whole new thread.... 

[dave48]

Couple of models (Hirlam, Euro4, UKMO)  going for a fair bit of precip coming into southern parts and then further north very early tomorrow morning, what do we think about that in terms of thunderstorms vs just heavy rain, especially if cold front is revised further west?

 

WRF NMM goes for initiation over western UK later on thursday as opposed to earlier advection from south...

 

Edit: Thunderstorms initiated in southern Biscay, same or different impulse?

Edited July 1, 2015 by dave48

[Shane Wheeldon]

Wow an absolutely monster storm here.... on the tv ... into the storm... LOL!!! Thats about the closest im going to get seeing a storm in this neck of the woods still got the rest of the week to go before i reach for the rope tho!

[alexisj9]

What the FCUK do you know about storms? all those made up numbers in your signature, i can also cut and paste from the SPC!

lol he streams live every year from the US, Happen to have seen vids of a few of those storms in his sig.

[johnholmes]

This thread is a bit like the snow one in winter. Forecasts are wrong; in fact they were quite close in my view, not in my back garden, one day wonder etc etc.

I missed the storm that passed close by here, so what, I did get the highest ever in 18 years max T though.

[P-M]

Look at Nick Miller's forecast online from about an hour ago

I suspect with the CF apparently dragging its heels there may be some model changes...his online forecast though looks awesome and not just for the South!!

Harry have you got a link for his forecast mate I can't find it?

[Harry]

We haven't even got through today or tomorows potential yet....

Just because your locations best chance of storms is friday night, doesn't mean it warrants a whole new thread....

That'll be a no then...thanks for that!

FYI Friday night's potential could affect well over 60% of the population...not just my little corner of the world.

Plus.......it would get me away from the moaning and bickering on here!!!

Edited July 1, 2015 by Harry

[mhielte]

This thread is a bit like the snow one in winter. Forecasts are wrong; in fact they were quite close in my view, not in my back garden, one day wonder etc etc.

I missed the storm that passed close by here, so what, I did get the highest ever in 18 years max T though.

Out of interest John what max did you reach today?

[Harry]

Harry have you got a link for his forecast mate I can't find it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

You should see the video on the main page.

[sn0wman]

What is preventing that area of rain just coming into Southwestern Scotland from intensifying?? There's a huge amount of CAPE, a decent trigger, a large(ish) amount of wind shear and very high dewpoints. Don't understand it at all!?

[pip22]

first lightning strike just off the coast of Lancashire

[Jonathan Lang]

Just noticed somesome low level scud like cloud is developing for the first time here today well below the altocumulus sheet

[Staffordshire]

I need help quick guys, Friday's potential, does it stand any realistic chance of getting here (South staffs) before 10pm??? A quick reply would be greatly appreciated as I'm trying to sort work shifts out

[johnholmes]

Out of interest John what max did you reach today?

 

my highest ever at 34.8C, only one day at RAF FInningley between 1943 and 1997 had one hotter. That was 35.5C on 3 August 1990, I experienced that as well, both not my cup of tea for sure. Not sure what Doncaster A/P had, I think 34C today.