Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[Skullzrulerz]

​

 

Wxmaps suggesting near to below temperature's for most of the uk with maybe the south east fairing better with the normal temperature's for the time of year. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro pleases the summer lovers from days 2-7 before things head downhill.

 

 

GFS is more or less a variation of the same theme until a lowers powers through on day 9 and 10..

 

 

Moral of the story, summer survives until at least the 13th even if turns out to be the last hurrah (one imagines we'll get more warm spells though).

[Milhouse]

With the GFS looking like this, i would be very suprised if we didnt get another warm spell lateer on this month. The set up is ideal for further areas of high pressure to push up from the SW.

 

 

Both the GFS and UKMO looking very warm at t+144

 

 

[Milhouse]

And closer to the present day, Saturday is looking a peach of a day for much of the UK. Plenty of scope for warmth in the near, middle, and longer term.

 

[mushymanrob]

With the GFS looking like this, i would be very suprised if we didnt get another warm spell lateer on this month. The set up is ideal for further areas of high pressure to push up from the SW.

 

 

Both the GFS and UKMO looking very warm at t+144

 

 

Yes indeed, we look very much like getting the best august for twelve years. Ok, its no 95 style classic but its looking like what we think of as a typiical british august....

[Man With Beard]

I don't think we're any further on tonight. The UKMO persists in keeping higher pressure through most of the country, and still looking hit at times. The GFS, to some extent, moves back towards the UKMO, making less of the trough midweek, resulting in a week alternating between warm and very warm, and mostly dry for all. ECM paints a more up and down picture tonight - warm spurts, occasionally hot in the south-east, but no consistent build of decent weather and looking like the trough may get a bit nearer by next weekend.

On the whole, its still above average, but not as much as was being shown 48 hours ago.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight looking good to go for virtually all of the run. Let's hope it's not off on one and gets support from the ECM which I think it might as it's not hugely different the 00z except in the later stages.

 

Starting Weds. with the LP Greenland and NW Spain and ridge Scandinavia should bring fine weather to all for a few days. The trough then does swing east towards Scotland, and there is a possibility of LP moving north from France, but this only a short period before the trough beats a hasty retreat allowing a zonal flow around the Azores HP to become influential bringing pretty good weather to all of the UK with perhaps the odd blip in the NW. Temps around average. The GEFS has been over enthusiastic before so some caution required.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[knocker]

Well NOAA 6-10 is similar to the Friday GEFs which is the iffy period with the NW being affected by the trough and although okay further south some question marks vis a French low.  The 8-14 is not on board at all so one can't put too much faith in the latter part of the GEFS at the moment.

Edited August 6, 2015 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Ladies and Gentlemen! This weird Summer continues, with the southeast of the uk once again gasping for rain whilst the other end has had enough! The outlook is not inspiring with the Atlantic having the main say with brief rises in pressure in the coming few days. Pointless going into too much detail. 72 hrs on model output is probably is far as can stretch it!!!      

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12z makes it 3 peachy runs in a row supporting an increasingly very warm and settled spell next week. How nice it is to see summery charts again.

[knocker]

I don't know about the Greenland high pj but the Iceland low is pain in the rectum. Certainly more unsettled and cooler than the GEFs. although It eventually greatly reduces it's influence in the ext but the way things are I don't think NOAA is going to be a million miles out but there must be some srious doubt post day ten.

Edited August 6, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

 Pointless going into too much detail. 72 hrs on model output is probably is far as can stretch it!!!      

Detail maybe not, but the anomalies are remakably accurate out to two weeks or more. They suggest much of the same, mean upper trough over the northern atlantic, azores high, euro high, with the uk stuck in between with varying degrees of warmth/unsettled. A typical british summer.

Just a thought old bean, but instead of pulling apart and 'dissing' the outputs, why not post what you think might happen with supporting evidence? It just seems that all you want to do is post negative comments.

[Bristawl Si]

Well, i'm confused.

One post says "Summer!" and the next screams "No it's not!"

Hey-ho.....i'll just wait for each day at a time.

[summer blizzard]

Largely the same as this morning. A summery spell lasting until day 8 and then reasonable confidence on a low pushing in.

[Nouska]

Well, i'm confused.

One post says "Summer!" and the next screams "No it's not!"

Hey-ho.....i'll just wait for each day at a time.

 

That might be because the models seem to want to canter through the text book of weather types in the one run. The short term chopping and changing is more than I've ever seen in years of summer model output.

 

There's plenty to fit any preference and agenda - it just depends which days you pick - earlier run had a winter type low, rapidly followed by the holy grail of summer/winter synoptics, a huge UK encompassing Scandinavian high.

[knocker]

Very brief update of the EC32

 

The upper trough returns next weekend bringing unsettled weather for three days until Tuesday 18th

 

After that a mainly light westerly airstream around the Azores HP to the SW ridging into the UK bringing settled weather to all. Temps around average.I'm not sure I trust that damn trough but hopefully better news for Scotland.

 

I still think there could be a brief hiatus around next Friday with a shallow system bringing quite warm air up from the south unless it just misses us to the east. That's the theory anyway.

Edited August 7, 2015 by knocker

[Snowyowl9]

ECM much different to UKM and GFS at this timeframe it doesn`t look right.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.html

Otherwise its looking pretty settled besides this rogue front late weekened.

But ECM in the shorterm shows more HP coming in.

Take your pick.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm481.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

[Man With Beard]

ECM much different to UKM and GFS at this timeframe it doesn`t look right.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.htmlOtherwise its looking pretty settled besides this rogue front late weekened.But ECM in the shorterm shows more HP coming in.Take your pick.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm481.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

Yes astonishing differences at just T72/T96. You wouldn't think the ECM would be wrong at this timeframe, but then again, you would not expect the others to be to far out either. Surely a middle ground scenario will follow tonight. Incidentally, the GFS continues to get hotter for next week (especially in the south but not exclusively), while the UKMO has not lost much if any if its heat from its previous 4 runs.

[Frosty.]

Make that 4 stonking Ukmo runs in a row, the 00z shows increasingly settled and very warm / hot conditions becoming established during next week. My take on next week is it will hot up, especially further s/e.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY AUG 7TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An area of slack pressure covers the UK with a weak Low pressure to the SW filling up. A ridge of High pressure then builds across the UK tonight and tomorrow from the SW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with a little rain at times. Some dry and at times warm conditions are likely for all areas as well.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow realigning near the NW of Scotland over the next day or so before slipping SE and weakening through next week. A weak or ill defined flow around the UK then develops for some while before signs of a West to East strengthening of the flow over the Atlantic and perhaps the British Isles develops by the end of the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the ridge across the far South of the UK at the weekend and the fresher SW flow over the North with some rain. through next week pressure becomes slack with some showers midweek before a further short-lived build of pressure NE across the UK develops. By next weekend thundery low pressure edges up into southern Britain coupled with falling pressure from the west or NW and some rain is likely for all for a time before a North/South split in the weather is hinted at in the far reaches of the run with the best of changeable conditions then likely over the South and SE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in the sequence of events through the first week as the early weeks SW flow decays with fronts in situ breaking the rain down in the NW into a scattering of showers everywhere midweek. Pressure builds across the UK wth several fine days before a thundery low edges up from the South. Through week 2 this lifts away North and the second week looks rather better than the operational run with High pressure building across the UK with fine and warm weather for most likely with another breakdown shown to the SW right at the runs end. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days show a lot of High pressure embracing the UK in the shape of a ridge at least and supporting a lot of fine and warm weather likely across the UK at that time. Just a 15% group of members show more changeable Atlantic driven weather at the same time point.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure ridging across the UK towards the middle of next week as the fresh SW flow with troughs over the North and West early in the week decay away. After some rain then a few showers towards Tuesday a lot of fine and dry weather should develop for many areas with the hint of a thundery shower in the South towards a weeks time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a series of slow moving fronts across Southern and Eastern Britain early next week with occasional rain slowly dying out as the fronts are shown to be weakening as pressure builds across them.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today is very similar to the rest of the output in regard to the weakening fronts lying across the UK early in the week with any rain breaking up into scattered showers midweek. Pressure then rises from the SW across the UK with quite widespread dry and fine weather likely and this pattern then gradually changes back to the point we are at this weekend with Northern and Western areas becoming cooler and more changeable with rain at times while the South stays drier and brighter.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the SW flow with accompanying troughs lying across Northern and Western Britain at the weekend gradually weakening into a more showery interlude towards midweek as the winds fall light. Then after a dry and warm couple of days across the UK from a ridge a thundery low pulls up from France towards Southern Britain with the best weather reverting to the North while the South, though warm and humid become at risk of thundery showers by next weekend.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning is a very messy run which shows a mix of conditions across the UK through the period. The innitial fresh SW flow with cloud and rain at times early next week weakens as winds fall light and breaks any rain left into scattered showers. Then through Wednesday and Thursday dry and fine weather looks likely as a High pressure ridge builds across the South at least. The end of the run looks very indecisive this morning with no pressure system high or low having overall control with as a result benign and often dry weather with some sunshine and the occasional sharp shower likely as a result along with moderately warm conditions in any sunshine.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last evening shows the same pattern as previously for the position we're likely to lie under in 10 days time. Low pressure is shown up to the NW with a trough close to Western Britain with slack winds across the UK. With pressure between it's members ranging from 1005mbs in the far NW to 1015 in the far SW no doubt some showery rain and temperatures close to average and at best only slightly above seem the likely result of such a pattern

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show some improvements across the UK again today though there is very little cross model support for any one evolution.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.8 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.9 pts followed by GFS at 83.6 and UKMO at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.5 pts over GFS's 53.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.6 pts to 33.3 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS The models today have served up another cocktail of long term projections that show a variety of evolutions likely over the second week none of which can be categorized into cross model support. In Week 1 there is a lot of common ground with a fresh SW flow across the North and West over the weekend with fronts becoming hung up near Southern Britain with occasional rain at times. As the parent Low moves away north all output shows a slackening of pressure across the UK midweek with a scattering of showers for a time. Pressure at the same time builds across the UK so that the latter days of next week look largely fine and dry with some warm sunshine. From that point on disagreements come into effect with some output suggesting a thundery Low moving up from the South while other draw in more Atlantic driven weather from the West or NW. We then have to look towards the longer term projections from GEM, GFS and ECM to gain a clue from what happens thereafter and to be quite frank I don't know from this morning's crop of charts. GFS Clusters indicate a lot of High pressure near the UK with resultant fine and warm weather for many no doubt while GEM shows the likelihood of a more North/South split in the weather under Westerly winds while ECM at 10 days is very indecisive showing slack pressure and a mix of sunshine and scattered showers the most likely events. It's 10 day mean chart maintains the theme of slack pressure too with something of a trough South from Iceland and light winds likely across the UK which has been consistent for days now. So putting all this together and arriving at an outcome remains difficult but can be summarised by saying that though changeable with a little rain at times is likely over the next few weeks there will be a lot of pleasantly warm and dry weather too, even in the North with nothing particularly unpleasant to report upon for anyone over the period. As a footnote I think it is fair to highlight this represents a vast improvement for Northerners than they have seen so far this summer. 

 

Next update from 09:00 Saturday Aug 8th 2015

[Northern Sky]

Very brief update of the EC32

 

The upper trough returns next weekend bringing unsettled weather for three days until Tuesday 18th

 

After that a mainly light westerly airstream around the Azores HP to the SW ridging into the UK bringing settled weather to all. Temps around average.I'm not sure I trust that damn trough but hopefully better news for Scotland.

 

I still think there could be a brief hiatus around next Friday with a shallow system bringing quite warm air up from the south unless it just misses us to the east. That's the theory anyway.

Thanks Knocker I've been following your updates and the EC32 seems to have been fairly consistent in it's outlook for the week beginning the 17th? I've been keeping a close eye on the output as I'll be up in the North West Highlands and the weather up there has been pretty dreadful all summer. Still all up in the air of course but if we can get away without a week of total washout that will be something.

[knocker]

Thanks Knocker I've been following your updates and the EC32 seems to have been fairly consistent in it's outlook for the week beginning the 17th? I've been keeping a close eye on the output as I'll be up in the North West Highlands and the weather up there has been pretty dreadful all summer. Still all up in the air of course but if we can get away without a week of total washout that will be something.

 

Looking very touch and go at the moment NS. The 00z ext ECM putting the upper trough a bit close for comfort on the 17th but improving as the week progresses much in line with the EC32 This wouldn't be a bad case scenario considering how things have been so here's hoping.

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 4m4 minutes ago

Previous strong El Nino late summer composite versus the 11-15 day ECMWF EPS pattern. Pretty close match!

 

[Singularity]

Afternoon everyone,

 

I've spent a little time lurking behind the curtains of this forum, and my science-obsessed mind has been drawn to mentions of teleconnections and analogue year composites which have recently become a subject of fascination on my part.

 

Indeed we see a nice example above, representing a classic 'enhanced Euro Ridge' response to a strong El Nino configuration in the latter stages of the summer season. I suspect this relates (at least partially) to increased atmospheric warmth piling up into a greater 'bulge' in the troposphere (I prefer to describe it that way to avoid detailing complicated dynamics!). In this way we get a glimpse of the rationale behind warmer, drier UK summers as a result of global warming... though it's unlikely to be that straight forward I'm afraid.

 

 

ECM seems to want to add more amplification to the pattern than suggested by the composite, digging low pressure southeast from the mid-Atlantic rather than firing it northeast.

 

At a glance (been busy this morning as usual), GFS seems more in line with the composite out to 7-8 days ahead, though the Polar/Arctic pattern does still allow for more of a Scandi High with lower heights S. of the UK than would otherwise be expected:

 

 

A case of 'heat from the east' on that run, touching 30*C in CS England 

[Skullzrulerz]

Today's Wxmaps Temperature is showing a mainly N/S spit of above normal temperature in the south and below normal for the north,

The hottest however is still in the South east.