Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[Man With Beard]

hmmmm, gonna be another day until we can call next week I think. The exact workings of this minor Atlantic trough are a little tricky on the ECM tonight. Like the UKMO, it is calling a hot week throughout for the south with doubt over the northern extent - but it looks a tiny bit uncertain at T144:

 

before becoming much more UKMO like by T168:

with hot continental air in tow:

Interestingly, the ECM T168 chart looks a lot like the GEFS at that time:

But it's all about the mid-Atlantic trough. Traditionally, I'd expect the ECM to latch on to the correct solution for split energy going into an Azores High first - at around T120/T144 - so tomorrow might be the day where we find out what we will get next week.

 

Options for me are: Nationwide heatwave (low chance), England heatwave (moderate chance), south only heatwave (moderate but slightly lower chance) and a temporary warm tease (low chance)

[knocker]

Keeping in mind the exact position of the trough being important the GEFs this evening has relaxed it's position north of us a little by Tuesday allowing HP to build for two or three days before swinging it back into the proximity of NW Scotland by Saturday. This should bring some fine weather to all but quite brief in the NW.

 

The Tuesday analysis also shows the LP near Spain that the 00z ECM had so a beady needs to be kept for any developments on this front.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Man With Beard]

Long way off but is this the third time the ECM has gone for "Frying Pan Friday" on the 14th? Would probably get to 90F on this, maybe even 92/93F:

 

[knocker]

Yes this is to do with the upper low near Spain dragging the warm European air up from the south.

 

[Winter Cold]

Well if there's one picture which graphically represents this entire summer so far then this is it lol:

 

 

[Frosty.]

Fantastic Ecm 12z this evening which builds on what the ukmo 12z shows at T+144 hours, even Scotland warms up into the mid 20's celsius on this run with increasingly hot and sultry conditions further south and east, it's a very continental looking spell with hot sunshine and a growing chance of T-Storms later next week with temperatures soaring into the 90's F, the heat is still there by T+240 hours across the s/e..this run is even better than yesterday's 12z...Fingers crossed for a hot summery spell to develop next week.

Edited August 5, 2015 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening. Just up to 96hrs which of course is FI ,the cold front moving southeast across southern parts of the uk  during Sunday may bring some welcome rain for some,

[knocker]

Looking at this evenings NOAA output.  On the 6-10 alhough the upper trough is there it's in a more favourable position  Is there a sign on the contour chart of a little development off NW Spain? The 8-14 weakens it and veers the airstream a little perhaps allowing the Azores ridge to build. I think tonight's NOAA more hopeful than any previous.

Edited August 5, 2015 by knocker

[William of Walworth]

Models now flirting with the last Summer lovers. Nothing inspiring to be honest

I'm reasonably and cautiously inspired as it goes!

 

... but mostly by the lack of rain and cold shown for South of  ... erm ... the far (far-ish?) N/NW?

 

And with that ultra cautious question, I'm reacting only to the most very recent output.

 

As the last few days swerves have shown already though, it's all about how relatively minor alterations in detail/positioning day to day, can affect surface conditions massively, UK wide.

 

Combine that with the usual FI rules and there's a LOT of room over the next two or three days (or more) for move-arounds in the op runs especially, but also with other signals, to suit both improvement (for warm-weather summer lovers) and deterioration (for select-a-bad-chart doom-mongers),

 

And a lot, if the doom-mongers (realists?) get to gloat, to frustrate those desparate for a bit of light warmth (20C?) and moderately warm sunshine (4 hours?), without much rain and wind

 

For now, hopecasting suits me for next week! (Away in the Shropshire hills).

 

As does relying on the more objective and well-informed interpreters here.

 

Note bold.

[Frosty.]

Nothing inspiring to be honest

I'm inspired by the Ecm / Ukmo 12z runs this evening, anyone who likes summer heat will agree with me about that. Even though it's FI range, the met office update today again mentioned very warm and hot spells for at least the south of the uk from the second half of next week and beyond...I hope the inspiring output continues.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues this morning to show some warm settled weather over the UK at times inter-spread with the odd unsettled day especially for the N/W,  But certainly more settled than of recent weeks with the South holding on to the warmer temps.  

 

Some very 'Hot' nation wide weather showing out into the run once again..

Edited August 6, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[The PIT]

I think GFS has taken some booze at lost it's marbles. 36C at midnight record heat and probably result in deaths. Thankfully deep FI can be safely ignored.

[terrier]

Still looks like a n/w s/e split next week on this mornings gfs 00z warm with some good spells of fine weather in the south. Whilst those in the n/w continue with the dire summer so far yes they are some decent looking days but remains unsettled at times. And looking at fi on the gfs I think it's gone off on one I would totally ignore that 35c at night. #dontthinkso#

[Polar Maritime]

Yes never noticed the time-frame re GFS, I've swapped it for a 12 noon one.. Certainly by all means, I would ignore the detail.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Man With Beard]

The small trough in the Atlantic for next Tuesday continues to cause trouble this morning. The ECM joins the GFS in developing it closer to the UK (and therefore less heat drawn up from the continent), while the UKMO persists in building high pressure over the top of it and therefore remains "hot". Which will be right? Odds now favouring the less hot options seeing as they have ens support. However, the UKMO did best when calling the high pressure build for this coming weekend. Small differences in the trough formation will have large consequences for next week, so I'll dry the powder a bit longer. Godd news though is that there will be at least some improvement for northern areas at times.

[knocker]

The GEFs anomaly this morning for 00z Weds has LP Greenland, Iceland and NW Spain. Ridge Scandinavia. This could well ensure fine weather for all for around three days but detail is best left for now in case there is any nonsense from any slack low pressure areas to the south.

 

I say around three days because the anomalies once again develop the upper trough from the Iceland low and swing it east to be sitting just to the west of the UK by.Sunday. Not good as it marks the return of cooler unsettled weather. Last night ECM was along these lines as well.

 

After that........well this situation lasts only a couple of days as well before a much better scenario sets sail but given the recent history I think that's best left for now.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 6, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

If, like me you are looking for longer lasting increasingly fine and warm weather next week, the GEM 00z shows a strong ridge of high pressure building across the uk during next week with temperatures rising into the mid 20's celsius. If you want something hotter, the Ukmo 00z builds on the increasingly very warm / hot 12z yesterday evening.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Frosty.

[Evening thunder]

I think GFS has taken some booze at lost it's marbles. 36C at midnight record heat and probably result in deaths. Thankfully deep FI can be safely ignored.

 

 

Still looks like a n/w s/e split next week on this mornings gfs 00z warm with some good spells of fine weather in the south. Whilst those in the n/w continue with the dire summer so far yes they are some decent looking days but remains unsettled at times. And looking at fi on the gfs I think it's gone off on one I would totally ignore that 35c at night. #dontthinkso#

 

 

Yes never noticed the time-frame re GFS, I've swapped it for a 12 noon one.. Certainly by all means, I would ignore the detail.

 

Always seems to cause some confusion but the GFS charts in the lower-res show the max temps for the preceding 12 hours, so on this run that is midnight to 12 noon, and 12 noon to midnight, which is why the 'midnight' chart shows slightly higher temps with maxima occurring in the afternoon.

If you look at the North Atlantic view or min temps it shows the actual temps at midnight (around 24-25C in the warm areas).

[mb018538]

Fairly disappointing runs today barring UKMO, with bth GFS and ECM especially pulling away from the idea of anything overly warm and settled. Darren Bett also said on last nights BBC update that today he will explain why there won't be anything too special to write home about in the longer term forecast. From mid to high twenties yesterday it now appears the trough will have more influence and we will see a few brief mid twenties incursions in the SE, with mucky atlantic influenced weather again dominating the NW. Same as the entire wretched summer really.

[Nouska]

Always seems to cause some confusion but the GFS charts in the lower-res show the max temps for the preceding 12 hours, so on this run that is midnight to 12 noon, and 12 noon to midnight, which is why the 'midnight' chart shows slightly higher temps with maxima occurring in the afternoon.

If you look at the North Atlantic view or min temps it shows the actual temps at midnight (around 24-25C in the warm areas).

 

If you ever get to the dizzy heights of needing to check overnight heat, the ARPEGE has hourly time stamps out to 96 hours. Sylvain has now added the UK view but remember the hour is still local French time.

 

Temp     http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=41&map=330

 

Precip    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=41&map=330

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY AUG 6TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression lies close to Southern Iceland with a WSW flow across the UK weakening slowly. A new but weakening depression will drifts towards SW England later tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining rather changeable with rain at times especially over the North and West. Some dry and at times warmer conditions as well especially over the South and East.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow still blowing NE across Southern Britain over the next day or so. It then relocates further NW near Scotland at the weekend slipping back slowly SE early next week. This portion of the flow also weakens through next week with a new arm well to the NW which later dips sharply South over the Atlantic and returning North close to western Britain late in week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a ridge developing close to Southern Britain at the weekend. At the same time troughs n a strong WSW flow over the North work their way SE over the UK weakening as they do. By midweek pressure is building NE across the UK with a High forming to the East of the UK by next weekend. pressure then falls to the West and SW with a more unsettled and cooler phase for most parts. Pressure then recovers well in the second week, again to the East and sending very warm or hot air across the UK before a thundery low moves North into Southern areas at the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run shows a ridge too developing close to Southern Britain with things warming up down here and becoming quite humid and sometimes rather cloudy over the weekend and next week. The North remains more changeable with rain at times up to midweek. The Control Run diverges somewhat from the Operational from then on keeping pressure very slack across the UK and with weak Low pressure floating about some showers, thundery in places are likely most days before a deep Low over the Atlantic through the second week freshens things up somewhat in a SW breeze and rain at times chiefly in the North and West.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning for 14 days still show a lot of High pressure dominance across the UK in the shape of a ridge of High pressure with the greatest chance of any divergence from this pattern likely from Low pressure to the North of the UK affecting the North.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure ridging across the far South at the weekend with a fresh WSW flow across the North with rain at times. As the troughs bringing this rain weakens by midweek next week the WSW flow decays and is replaced by a High pressure ridge across the Central swathe of the UK. Thundery Low pressure may creep up from Europe to affect the South while the best weather for once may be over Scotland later next week with warm conditions for most of the UK by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show weakening fronts moving SE across the UK at the weekend and becoming slow moving over Southern England by Monday.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today offers a similar pattern to the rest giving the South a fine and warm weekend and start to next week. The WSW flow in the North will decay by midweek as pressure patterns become slack across the UK. Apart from the risk of the odd thundery shower breaking out in the South at times the rest of the run seems set fair with High pressure ridging across the UK ensuring fine and warm weather for many with just the far North at risk of some rain by the end of the run as troughs to the North skirt by.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the build of pressure too from the SW across the far South of Britain at the weekend with the unsettled WSW flow further North weakening through the early days of next week leading to a spell of benign conditions across the UK as a tenuous ridge of High pressure develops across the UK giving light winds and sunny spells and generally reasonably warm conditions.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning offers up a two pronged attack from a ridge of High pressure from the SW today. In the first instance at the weekend only the far South sees the benefits as the warm conditions here will not be replicated elsewhere. Instead troughs will bring rain at times in a SW breeze to all areas away from the far South and SE. This pattern then subsides by midweek as pressure becomes slack everywhere with the risk of a few showers for a time. The second ridge from the SW is then shown better aligned to bring all of the UK into fine and warm weather before it too declines to a much more unsettled period late next week and over the weekend as rain or thundery showers become much more prolific as Low pressure crosses and lies to the West of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  this morning shows the same pattern as previously for the position we're likely to lie under in 10 days time. Low pressure is shown up to the NW with a trough close to Western Britain with slack winds across the UK. With pressure between it's members ranging from 1005mbs in the far NW to 1015 in the far SW no doubt some showery rain and temperatures close to average and at best only slightly above seem the likely result of such a pattern

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to show some improvements across the UK today though there is varying degrees of extent and duration of this theme.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.6 pts followed by GFS at 83.4 and UKMO at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.7 pts to 33.3 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS I find the long term projections of the models very hard to quantify this morning as they offer a more than usual degree of uncertainty with regard to specific details as we move from the second weekend and through into the following week. There is a degree of certainty on the fact that pressure is going to build strongly close to Southern Britain at the weekend with increasingly warm and humid weather as a result down here. There is also agreement on troughs moving down into this High pressure from the NW giving rise to a lot of cloud and some rain across the North and West. From that point on models start to diverge somewhat on specifics but in general do indicate a period of slack pressure and the risk of showers for a time before a second build of pressure from the SW looks likely towards the end of next week. Being better aligned on a trajectory that includes all of the UK sharing in some fine and warm conditions one would think that it might hang around in situ for a while but the output which extends beyond that point quickly show it breaking down into lower pressure again, be it from the NW, West or South with rain at times, some thundery returning quite widely across the UK. It seems an almost impossible task for the models to hold enough High pressure across the UK for any length of time this Summer to give the UK a decent and extended period of Summer weather. Nevertheless, for Northern locations there is at least some prospect of some better days than of late with temperatures eventually entering the warm category here too though patience until the end of next week will have to be adhered. For the South things remain acceptable with just some occasional perhaps thundery rain and some occasional if short bursts of very warm or hot weather possible at times. Looking on a broad scale judgement however you dress this Summer up and it has been OK down here in the South for much of the time there has certainly been a drought in the amount of dominant High Pressure lying across the UK this year with the best weather always lying just the other side of the channel on mainland Europe and while for many Northerners it has been one to forget it certainly won't go down as being noteworthy down here either especially in terms of long term average temperatures despite below average rainfall. While this morning's output will deliver improvements for the North in the coming weeks the South will probably notice the difference rather less as to me there still doesn't look like any sustained and guaranteed hot conditions other than the odd day between much more average sort of conditions for August. 

 

Next update from 09:00 Friday Aug 7th 2015

[knocker]

The ECM this morning has more or less the same upper air analysis as the GEFS for Weds. so a similar period of fine weather with the added interest wondering whether anything will develop to the south and drift north. The ops did suggest this with the low passing to the east of the UK.

 

Thereafter again similar to GEFS but although by Sunday the trough does have a different orientation and depth it still means a return to unsettled weather for a short period.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 6, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is pretty good this morning with the Azores high ridging in not once but twice, the first ridge brings a largely fine and warm saturday to most of the UK but to the south only on Sunday, cooler and more unsettled further northwest but the second ridge is stronger and better aligned and is therefore much more successful in bringing dry, warm and sunny weather to most of the UK during the 2nd half of next week, possibly very warm in the southeast but then the fine spell breaks down, possibly with thundery outbreaks at the end of next week. I think there is a chance of hot weather later next week across the s/e.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Frosty.

[Winter Cold]

GFS 0z is such an outlier it goes off the scale hehe  

 

     â€‹

 

Made me laugh anyway!

 

Talking more seriously then the outlook is pretty decent I feel, looks like temps up into 20s on most days going forward round here, and no doubt warmer than that further south. Looks pretty dry aswell so if we get some nice, pleasant sunny days then it will feel very warm and very much like summer

[Frosty.]

Not a bad 6z at all, becoming largely fine and warm next week then a brief cool unsettled blip followed by a marked change to warm anticyclonic conditions. Saturday looks fine and warm nationwide under a ridge of high pressure, Sunday looks fine and warm further southeast, very warm in the SE corner but for many, a mix of sunshine and a few showers. Next week starts a bit changeable but pleasantly warm with sunny spells although some residual rain to clear the southeast and then a lot of fine and warm weather next week with pressure rising but a chance of thundery rain clipping the southeast for a time.