Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

[Cloud 10]

Absolutely pouring here roads are like rivers beautiful night time lightning - love it!

 

Yes,its really perked up in the last 20 mins or so.

[TwisterGirl81]

Radar looks full of red approaching exter way lots of heavy rain hope too see more lighting later

It's not been great here so far, light rain and two rumbles of thunder earlier, looks like rain will get heavier but nothing in the way of lightening I can see coming towards Exeter/Devon so far.....

[Chris K]

It's not been great here so far, light rain and two rumbles of thunder earlier, looks like rain will get heavier but nothing in the way of lightening I can see coming towards Exeter/Devon so far.....

Looks pretty mediocre in the SW again. Looked encouraging earlier...

[Supacell]

I have seen no less than 4 cells today.

Storm number 1 moved just the west of Derby with lots of rumbles but not very much lightning visible. Winds were gusty with the rain though.

Storm 2 tracked through almost the same area although a few miles west. I got a few bolts on camera from this one but it appeared to die overhead as a frequent rumbling one headed northwards to my west.

This evening I drove under a storm near Newcastle under lyme. It didn't seem very active and so I didn't stop as I had a different cell in my sights.

Storm 4 was near to the village of Woore in Cheshire. This made it like night time as it approached around 7:30pm. This was the most active of all the cells with some very bright pink lightning, bolts, thunder, torrential rain and gusty winds.

I am hoping everything recorded ok, have not got home yet so can't check. It has been a fun day though, and there may be more over the next couple of days :-)

[gazzac69]

nice storm over Westmoor Newcastle 

nice storm over Westmoor Newcastle 

[Raidan]

I'm going to watch MOTD then after check the situation and if it looks good then i will stay up but more than likely it won't can only hope.

[Chris K]

Anyone have any analysis for instability tonight? I can't be bothered to keep checking if there's no chance haha

MLCAPE looked good for tonight so what's holding it back?

Edited August 22, 2015 by Chris K

[Costa Del Fal]

Anyone have any analysis for instability tonight? I can't be bothered to keep checking if there's no chance haha

MLCAPE looked good for tonight so what's holding it back?

Yes I would like someone to give an update but it seems no one is really about for this sadly. However it doesn't look promising. Very weak storm in the usual Southampton hotspot this anything else is likely to be very isolated. Doesn't express destabilisation at all I'm afraid though. Even the storms in northern France look very weak. End of show I think now.

[NUT]

The east of scotland getting quite wet currently. Maybe the thunder starting to ease out of it a little. Could still be a wet night though

[William Grimsley]

Absoloutely nothing remotely thundery here this evening, just heavy rain at the moment lashing on southern facing windows, it feels more like winter than a humid thundery setup!

[Convective]

Yes I would like someone to give an update but it seems no one is really about for this sadly. However it doesn't look promising. Very weak storm in the usual Southampton hotspot this anything else is likely to be very isolated. Doesn't express destabilisation at all I'm afraid though. Even the storms in northern France look very weak. End of show I think now.

 

Don't give up yet! Many models were forecasting the heaviest of the storms and rain to break out from midnight onwards

[A.J]

Anyone have any analysis for instability tonight? I can't be bothered to keep checking if there's no chance haha

MLCAPE looked good for tonight so what's holding it back?

it actually looks better later on tonight Chris...diddly squat here currently apart from a sharp shower a few mins ago....there were sferics detected not too far away nr Devizes but I didn't catch them....better luck overnight I hope

[Stormyking]

Waheeyy got our very own localised storm! Was a pretty decent thing! Some awesome multi strike CGs,  and a micro burst passed right through!

[A.J]

for those in southern counties and the west country, modelling infers capping currently in the mid-levels eroding during the overnight period, it's this capping that is suppressing strong convection from developing in the elevated theta plume.  12z NMM models erosion of said cap, and steeping lapse rates in conjunction with the northwards movement of the plume will encourage more elevated convection/storms during the overnight period.....A quick check of the v6 radar shows the beginning of this in developments over northern France into the English Channel.............keep the faith, parameters for elevated thunderstorms will be considerably more favourable later than they are now 

[Costa Del Fal]

for those in southern counties and the west country, modelling infers capping currently in the mid-levels eroding during the overnight period, it's this capping that is suppressing strong convection from developing in the elevated theta plume.  12z NMM models erosion of said cap, and steeping lapse rates in conjunction with the northwards movement of the plume will encourage more elevated convection/storms during the overnight period.....A quick check of the v6 radar shows the beginning of this in developments over northern France into the English Channel.............keep the faith, parameters for elevated thunderstorms will be considerably more favourable later than they are now 

Much chance for the West Midlands?

[A.J]

Much chance for the West Midlands?

for some, maybe....but not for you, you moan far too much      (just kidding)

[Chris K]

Thanks AJ...I'll get some jagerbombs on the go then

[Costa Del Fal]

for some, maybe....but not for you, you moan far too much      (just kidding)

Woah see the shropshirians lol

[William Grimsley]

We all need AJ with us, especially when a thunderstorm we've been waiting for actually hits but aren't in the right place at the right time. Maybe, another thunderstorm will hit and this time I will see one. We shall have to wait and see people!

[Winter Cold]

haha just when I thought I might get to go to sleep tonight, its now looking like round 2 might rumble north then????   

[Tempest]

A little lightning seen to the east and south west of me. Looked like sheet but quite difficult to tell as in the distance. Not much in the way of thunder tho' and didn't last long. Raining heavily and turned quite clammy. Keeping a watch whilst relaxing in bed...great

[James 'Jamie C' Croucher]

the bordeux storm looks pretty intense and if it keeps the momentum up then surely that may hit the south/south west head on? looking at the pressure chart on the met office (dunno if im reading it right) puts the line on the pressure battle right over the south uk from devon to isle of wight way at approx 1am.... and its angled more heading further north west as it heads up.... although im happy to be corrected, i hate trying to understand charts, i just like the lightning (on the rare occasions that we get it).... and that divergence line i said about also ties into the storm risk map on the netweather site at around the same time.

 

i hope to get something, dying to get some decent shots on my eos 70d......

[lassie23]

I have a booze/heat/barbie/relative/ headache,  so if any storms do arrive, It would be appreciated if they do so quietly!     

Edited August 22, 2015 by lassie23

[TwisterGirl81]

Thankyou AJ â˜ºï¸ I think I'll stay up and watch a scarey film then, get all in the mood ha

[Snowshine]

This day wont be missed! I actually thought something would pop up and impress Warwickshire, but no.