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Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Thunder and torrential rain!

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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted

Rain has eased now after 2 hours of continuous very heavy rain, missed the thunderstorms again!!

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Dale Hay Aficionado

Dale Hay

Posted
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and a cracking thunderstorm
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
Posted

I'm guessing there might be some thunder and a bit of rain near you Rain123? ;)

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

More thunder heard in New Milton. Looks like that storm in the channel could come here! :)

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Yep, even more thunder and heavy rain now here in New Milton.

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

yes looks like some action now  Brewing in the channel and hopefully pivoting like  Surrey as just mentioned , but will it keep intact .

plenty of action to come over coming days if you like hvy rain and hopefully something stormy mixed in, the summers going out with a bang or two and rain to top up our water tables .

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Oh no, it's posted loads of times. How do you delete posts.

Sorted it  :good:

 

So, what does today have in store. I shall go and check some charts and then come back!

Edited by Supacell
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

What's going on today lads?

I'm on a mobile and charts are barely loading:(

Nothing from estofex either so far.

My guess is that there is a good chance like yesterday. But location wise.. unno..

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Heavy rain here but of course, no thunder. ;)

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Sorted it  :good:

 

So, what does today have in store. I shall go and check some charts and then come back!

Thanks very much, Supacell. Absolutely biblical rain now.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Cold front moving NE is already reinvigorating in response to surface heating ahead of the front developing some weak CAPE and wind convergence along it. Having said that the dewpoints and temperatures are lower to the NE of the front than they were yesterday. It still feels warm and humid here but not the stifling heat of yesterday.

 

Of more interest is the deep layer shear and helicity which looks to be highest earlier in the day before weakening a little as the front heads east (1st chart). The presence of these parameters also brings a low risk of a tornado (2nd chart). You can already see on the radar the front moving NE whilst the pulses of rain move SE to NW along it.

 

post-2719-0-39225200-1440313128_thumb.pn post-2719-0-12389200-1440313210_thumb.pn

 

Most parts though in the path of the front have a chance of seeing some flashes and hearing some rumbles. This is likely to develop squall line conditions with a brief period of gusty winds and torrential rain. It will not hang around though and so it is a short, sharp burst of action.

 

Tonight's storms now look likely to only affect the south coast overnight and far south-east tomorrow on GFS and NMM as the area of low pressure producing it has moved southwards on recent runs. It is worth keeping an eye on for anywhere Midlands south though as things can still change and the Met Office still show quite widespread thundery showers breaking out from the North Midlands south. They have a weather warning out for the rain amounts too, but do not mention thunderstorms.

 

Tuesday has some interest on GFS charts too, but this is a long way off yet.

 

Elsewhere for today we have nothing from Estofex as yet but Convective Weather have a slight chance of thunderstorms

 

post-2719-0-11368100-1440313809_thumb.pn

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

 

Nick F also has a forecast out which was released last night with a slight risk of severe storms across the NW and a more general marginal risk.

 

post-2719-0-94391200-1440313927_thumb.pn

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83828-uk-storm-and-severe-convective-forecast/

Edited by Supacell
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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Sudden torrential bursts of rain pulsing along the leading edge of the slow moving front, lacking frequent thundery activity although distant thunder earlier and another rumble a few minutes ago.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Lets see what happens later. Guaranteed the heat clear skies and sunny here.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Couple of sferics SE of Brizzle

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

Strange Morning, had a hit from more storms in west wight, from the ramains of that MCS too, then jut literally got back and just had 2 overhead strikes and loud thunder again!

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Rain123 Apprentice

Rain123

Posted
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Spells or thunderstorms.
  • Location: Ash Vale, Surrey/Hampshire border
Posted

Strange Morning, had a hit from more storms in west wight, from the ramains of that MCS too, then jut literally got back and just had 2 overhead strikes and loud thunder again!

I can hear that in the distance from New Milton.

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Couple of sferics SE of Brizzle

 

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand it resulted in nothing but rain again

 

Now watch as lightning sparks up North of here :laugh:

 

Edit: I was right!!!! Lightning in SE Wales after it had passed over here. Mother Nature couldn't take the mickey more if she tried!!!

Edited by Chris K
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Definitely (quite considerably in fact) more humid today than yesterday. The thick haze testifies to this, just a shame the thickness of the haze will suppress temperatures, although already it's very warm feeling.

Fingers crossed for the odd spark and a peel of thunder later

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

A whopping 26.2 mm of rain has fallen so far today here, which is way more than I expected! Unfortunately, none of the rain has been electrified so I will have to wait again to see my next thunderstorm. Oh well! lol

Edited by William Grimsley
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

nothing here either William....dry currently, never thought I'd say it but this part of wiltshire has developed a bit of a storm shield....still, I'll keep the faith and will them here :)

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Typical, lots of strikes to my SW now.. I swear these storms are attentively trying to miss me. 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

nothing here either William....dry currently, never thought I'd say it but this part of wiltshire has developed a bit of a storm shield....still, I'll keep the faith and will them here :)

Yeah, I think I've got my own storm shield to be honest, not my own village! Whenever I travel away from my village, there's always a thunderstorm there and vice versa! lol

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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted

Almost 40mm of rain overnight, just beginning to fade away very slowly.

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