Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

[Man With Beard]

Indeed the focus of the next few days will be the extraordinarily warm temperatures for early November, with many date records in the balance and maybe even the all time record of 21.7C with a little luck. Totally unprecedented for November - in my 40 years on this earth, I can only ever remember the seasonal warmth switch being turned off completely at this time of year - last year excepted - I cannot imagine a first week of November in the mid to high 60sF on a daily basis. A bit like what 2011 was to October, which was another unimaginable warm spell for the time of year, surely never to be related in our lifetime.

BUT!... there is a potential fly in the ointment. If those wind speeds drop too low, the whole warm spell could be scuppered by fog after the weekend. Winds will need to remain on the brisk side of light, at least at nighttime. A couple of days next week look contenders for being too calm. It might need monitoring day to day, even. So regardless of what the GFS 0.25 says, a record spell is far from in the bag.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Man With Beard

[carinthian]

Well, the models are consistently progging a mild first week and perhaps first half to November, thanks to a stagnant/slow-moving longwave pattern across the Atlantic and Europe consisting of a persistent ridge over Europe and slow moving upper trough close to the west. So above average temps continuing into early November, though unsettled at times, as we are never too far away from the influence of the Atlantic trough, though I suspect the N and W seeing the lion's share of rainfall for now.

 

Have done a blog on early November's prospects, certainly no signal to dig out those winter woolies out yet: 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6966;sess=

Thanks for that Nick, just what I do not want ! At least we have nice sunshine over here. Today in England must be depressing with low cloud base, drizzle and light rain all with double digit temps. I am sure now the start of our ski season will have to be put back into December. No snow forecast for at least 10 days or more maybe. Maybe a bit more progression will give some relief by Mid Novemeber and help lift the gloom from this present bore fest of the stagnant pattern you highlight.

 C

[Mucka]

My post was removed last night apparently.

Not a big deal as it was just a general post but seems a bit random and unnecessary since there was nothing in it that warranted removal and it was the only post in a 4 hour period.

I would expect the courtesy of being notified at least otherwise it comes across as agenda driven or cowardly.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Mucka

[Paul]

My post was removed last night apparently.

Not a big deal as it was just a general post but seems a bit random and unnecessary since there was nothing in it that warranted removal and it was the only post in a 4 hour period.

I would expect the courtesy of being notified at least otherwise it comes across as agenda driven or cowardly.

 

You mean the post below? Not sure if it was moved or you posted it there, but I don't see any posts you've made in the trash can (in fact fwiw, no posts were removed yesterday at all.)

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83902-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201516/page-20#entry3275859

 

If it was moved, then someone ought to have contacted you, so apologies for that, but to be fair it's a pretty obvious model banter rather than model discussion type post

 

If you'd like to discuss further, please feel free to pm me, rather than us clogging up the model thread with off topic stuff. 

[phil nw.]

Some minor difference between the UK and GFS 12z run as early as day 3 as to where they split the jet out west as it comes against the blocking ridge.

Day 4 images show this better

 

 

Uk model shows a more resiliant block across the UK early doors as the GFS is more progressive with the jet lying across the nw of the uk by this time.

The UKMO solution repelling any rain bearing fronts keeping things pretty calm and quiet,whereas the GFS is  likely to give more windy and unsettled conditions to the nw quarter.

Overall though the 500 hPa pattern remains pretty much locked in with Euro heights and the waxing and waning of low pressure attempts to push against it from the Atlantic.

This pattern continuing to bring pulses of mild air from further south.

Edited October 29, 2015 by phil nw.

[damianslaw]

A predominantly mild outlook for the foreseeable, a classic locked in euro high / icelandic low scenario, something however, we have seen little of this year..

 

Nothing too unusual for the time of year though.. temps will depend on how much cloud we see, and more importantly any stubborn fog, which could be very reluctant to clear keeping temps down, the strength of the wind will be key.

 

No frost to speak of neither.. I suspect a very dreary drab spell of gloomy weather generally, something again to tend to associate with November.

 

I'll not be looking at the models now for at least a week, and would hope we see something different in the outlook by then. The strength and position of the jetstream will determine things, my hunch is for more of a westerly pattern by mid November, bringing generally unsettled and windier conditions for all, with temps closer to the November norm, and perhaps the first proper coatings of snow for higher ground in the north. We shall see..

[Cheshire Freeze]

A predominantly mild outlook for the foreseeable, a classic locked in euro high / icelandic low scenario, something however, we have seen little of this year..

 

Nothing too unusual for the time of year though.. temps will depend on how much cloud we see, and more importantly any stubborn fog, which could be very reluctant to clear keeping temps down, the strength of the wind will be key.

 

No frost to speak of neither.. I suspect a very dreary drab spell of gloomy weather generally, something again to tend to associate with November.

 

I'll not be looking at the models now for at least a week, and would hope we see something different in the outlook by then. The strength and position of the jetstream will determine things, my hunch is for more of a westerly pattern by mid November, bringing generally unsettled and windier conditions for all, with temps closer to the November norm, and perhaps the first proper coatings of snow for higher ground in the north. We shall see..

 

Yes the outlook is drab but you also pick up on an interesting point. Patterns that we're seeing now very rarely play out unabated as we progress through November and into December so you'd think that there would be a good chance of a pattern change just as we head into winter proper.

Edited October 29, 2015 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

Some differences between the big 3 at T144hrs with the UKMO the most amplified. The ECM picks up that shortwave and phases it with the low in the Atlantic which flattens the pattern out somewhat. The UKMO makes less of that shortwave and has it further east. The GFS is the flattest solution at T144hrs.

 

The UKMO looks the driest option  as high pressure is likely to be pulled a bit further north. The PV isn't really gearing up yet and is mostly towards the ne rather than nw however the pattern is too flat upstream and its a very static picture with troughing generally stuck to the west of the UK.

 

Overall temps look mild to warm at times, perhaps exceptionally so early next week with a southerly flow. If you like frosty seasonal weather then theres no sign of that for quite a while, realistically with the troughing stuck to the west then the only way to get that is for that to dig much further south and amplify which would help force high pressure further north near the UK.

 

If you extrapolate the ECM for example in terms of overall pattern and that instead went the UKMO route at T144hrs then you'd have a small chance of the revolving trough cutting some energy se at T168hrs as that shortwave phases upstream at that point.

 

Apart from that smallest of chances its looking like a rather protracted spell of milder weather.

Edited October 29, 2015 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

Some differences between the big 3 at T144hrs with the UKMO the most amplified. The ECM picks up that shortwave and phases it with the low in the Atlantic which flattens the pattern out somewhat. The UKMO makes less of that shortwave and has it further east. The GFS is the flattest solution at T144hrs.

 

The UKMO looks the driest option  as high pressure is likely to be pulled a bit further north. The PV isn't really gearing up yet and is mostly towards the ne rather than nw however the pattern is too flat upstream and its a very static picture with troughing generally stuck to the west of the UK.

 

Overall temps look mild to warm at times, perhaps exceptionally so early next week with a southerly flow. If you like frosty seasonal weather then theres no sign of that for quite a while, realistically with the troughing stuck to the west then the only way to get that is for that to dig much further south and amplify which would help force high pressure further north near the UK.

 

If you extrapolate the ECM for example in terms of overall pattern and that instead went the UKMO route at T144hrs then you'd have a small chance of the revolving trough cutting some energy se at T168hrs as that shortwave phases upstream at that point.

 

Apart from that smallest of chances its looking like a rather protracted spell of milder weather.

Indeed Nick but I would rather be seeing this now instead of the 29th Nov. Lets just hope I am not repeating myself in a month's time!

[mb018538]

Absolutely - I'd much rather have this now than chilly rank days! In another 4-5 weeks we will have some cooler air to tap into and hopefully have a winterspell with some bite. I for one will certainly enjoy these days of 16-19c down here!

[Geordiesnow]

I think those who are worrying about fog perhaps hampering any chance of warmth then imo, its not too much of a concern as it appears only Sunday is the risk of this occuring, The southerly flow, in my eyes looks like it will be too strong for fog to form as we head into next week although sea fog could be an issue in some Southern and perhaps western coastal areas at times. 

 

The upper air temps do look like easing down a touch from the weekend, so I would say the chances of reaching 20C into next week looks less likely imo. 

 

Does look like this pattern will stick around for quite a while though which is a shame because its that time of year I would like too see the Atlantic kicking into gear and seeing some polar maritime air mixed in for good measure. 

[Man With Beard]

Can't post link as my browser keeps crashing, but latest NOAA 8-14 day anomalies confirms - total deadlock with strong block over central Europe and troughing in western Atlantic. A long way from seeing anything truly unsettled, so far that you'd get good odds on us still being under a block by mid-november. But when has the weather ever listened to odds?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Edited October 29, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
Attached chart and link for you! :)

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All   The European High is really a nuisance , Its certainly being eroded  on tonights model output!  Ecm gives it the boot!!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

The NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly chart also showing blocking to the East of the UK with Atlantic troughing failing to terminate the Europe ridge. As such, certainly not much change apparent between the 6 to 14 day period, and one of those patterns that can prove tricky to shift. 

 

 

Toughing in the Atlantic, though, likely to be close enough to throw weather systems towards Western and North-Western UK areas at times.

 

Did something similar last time, but thought since there isn't much happening regarding cold weather prospects, have been fishing through the GEFS 12Z ensembles and found these two to be deserving of the cold dreamland Oscar chart awards; first chart for the amusing little cold plunge it shows from the North and the second chart for being synoptically interesting to look at.

 

 

Probably the best the cold weather enthusiasts could hope for at the moment considering the setup that's happening currently. Personally, though, wouldn't be surprised if the Europe blocks gets flattened and/or pushed further East and that and more general, Westerly, Atlantic, pattern takes over. Just feel there's too much in the way of cyclonic activity to the West and North-West of the UK and that there would need to be more in the way of negatively titled troughing in the Atlantic to pull the Europe High Pressure back further North and West. But not really much support for that type of scenario (even though things could still change with the next one to two weeks, although the general pattern still seems to be there of blocking to our East, troughing to our West). Also, unless the anomaly charts such as the NOAA start showing this type of evolution, then I feel it's very unlikely any proper Northern blocking and/or cold shot  will occur for now.

 

Warning: The above GEFS charts are in deep Fantasy Island and are not to be taken seriously. Do so at your own risk.

[Captain Shortwave]

Not much else to add, there could be a risk of something more unsettled developing briefly during the middle of next week perhaps as the ridge currently building in gets pushed eastwards.

Shown nicely on the ECM ens (GFS in agreement)

 

That said it looks very very brief as the next ridge pushes north east from the Azores.

The GFS even more bullish about this second push of heights during the later part of next week.

 

To be honest I would take any flattening out of the pattern in general with a pinch of salt as the extended range will smooth out the pattern somewhat and the end result could be something more amplified. How the condition for this coming weekend is a prime example of this. No sign of anything cold developing in the near future.

All I can say is lets hope we can get some good sunny spells from this upcoming spell to maximise the warmth and of course the feel of the conditions as no one really likes dull and cloudy conditions, be it mild or cold.

Edited October 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

No changes with the ecm anomaly at T240. The ext period does show some signs of a flattening of the flow towards the end but at this stage I wouldn't place any great significance to that.

Edited October 29, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

OPC goes with what GFS and EURO have been selling. Ex-Patricia sub 960mb on approach to Greenland in 48hrs. I'm not well up on this but how often does a hurricane pop from one ocean to another?

Edited October 29, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

An overview of the latest EC32 output and a reminder this isn’t taken from the full suite.

 

The current projected analysis of HP just to the east linking to same to the SW and upper trough confined to the middle/western Atlantic is maintained, and possible briefly strengthened later, until around the 12^th. With temps generally above average.

 

Between the 12^th and the 18^th a fairly rapid pattern change ensues with the dissipation of the HP cell to the east, the Atlantic trough to the NW becoming more active and a far more zonal flow bringing temps around average,

 

This continues until the end of the month bringing much more changeable weather to the UK, the specifics of which will depend on the latitudinal interplay between the cooler air to the NW and warmer to the SW. The sort of scenario that favours a north/south split over the UK with the north catching the brunt of the systems winging along although of course the south will not escape scot free.

 

A snapshot of what I mean by this taken from this morning's gfs run. (not to be taken as a forecast).

 

Summary

 

A transition from our benign spell of HP dominated weather to a more zonal active Atlantic around the 14th

Chart weatherbell

Edited October 30, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS shows the stubborn High push East by the 12th, As a cooler Atlantic driven N/Wly flow develops. 

Edited October 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run ends colder and more unsettled with snow on northern hills / mountains and night frosts, a much more seasonal pattern from mid november onwards according to this run. In the meantime, the Euro High is going to bring settled and exceptionally mild conditions, indeed, rather warm conditions to the south of the uk in the days ahead with temperatures as high as 18 / 19 c 65 f across the south of england through this weekend and early next week and into the low 60's F as far north as northern england / southern scotland, the warmest uppers (850's) eventually push away across eastern europe through next week but surface conditions remain mild / very mild across the south of the uk but the second half of next week looks less settled with more breeze and a few showers dotted around, especially towards the end of next week when it briefly becomes more unsettled. It then becomes more settled again for a short time before we see a marked pattern change towards mid nov to relatively colder and more unsettled conditions from the NW.   

[Singularity]

 

Annihilated tropospheric vortex and some strat. warming from the Pacific (originating East Asia)... what script has GFS been reading this morning?

 

Way too far out in time to take at all seriously, but nevertheless a curious deviation from the theme of a strengthening polar vortex. In fact this run might even be lining up a Canadian warming of sorts... that really would be a wildcard being played.

 

If it's still there 5 days from now and without being pushed back nearly as many days in time, then I'll start to pay more attention to it.

[Paul]

Quick reminder - don't forget to post your vote for the October HO-PI

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84310-ho-pi-winter-index-october-vote/

[Newberryone]

Signs of any substantial ridging from the Azores, as indicated by yesterdays output, after any weakening of the Euro block by next weekend, looking far less apparent according to the Ecm 00z update. Could of course all change again, but as of now we're looking at charts indicative of a substantial change to something far more mobile, especially the further west you are, starting from next weekend, let alone mid Nov.   LET THE FUN BEGIN!

Edited October 30, 2015 by Newberryone

[Summer Sun]

Quite a difference between the ECM op and ENS at d10 this morning the Op has high pressure over mainland Europe and a deep low out in the Atlantic, leaving us in a southwesterly flow and some gusty winds at times with most of the rain in the north and west always drier in the south and southeast where you're closer to the higher

 

 

The ENS meanwhile, has the high, stretching much further north with the 1020mb line getting as far north as southern Scotland this would keep the winds lighter and increase the risk of frost and fog

 

[knocker]

In the ext period the ecm anomalies have to HP and Atlantic trough moving a little east bringing the unsettled weather into play in the north and then by the 14th the HP has weakened considerably introducing more zonality.

Edited October 30, 2015 by knocker