Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

[NorthYorksWeather]

Not sure what area of the country you're looking at. Latest for London doesn't really show this.

 

 

The upper air temperature does show a sign of dropping around the 11th of November, maybe this is what Ali is referring to. This is likely to be when the Atlantic could break through the Euro block bringing in cooler uppers from the North/West. The 2m temps for London does show a gradual drop over time however the drop looks more dramatic on this graph.

 

 

[MP-R]

Undoubtedly the Atlantic will break through at some point, but it is interesting to note, even this early in the season, that modelled Atlantic breakthroughs are failing. Last week, many were talking about the UK becoming a battleground - but instead, the euro block is now forecast to restrengthen. Now this could conceivable indicate a few things

1. The euro block is the driver for the coming period, and it may be underestimated by models at times

2. The Atlantic does not have strength in familiar zones for deepening lows so as to threaten the UK, so blocking could affect us from many different directions in future weeks or

3. it's just a temporary situation that will change in a couple of weeks

All options are possible but option 2. does interest me - I've notice in the last couple of weeks that some lows have exploded shortly after exiting Canada, in the way they normally do on our side of the Atlantic. This has led to them tracking north sooner, and makes them less of a threat to any block that sits over us (could this be something to do with the cool ssts?). If this is actually a pattern that will continue into winter, it would be a friend to a Scandi/Siberian high pushing westwards, as less resistance would be offered. Could that happen?

 

Good post and very interesting points! I'd like to know whether which ones affects which wrt Euro High vs Atlantic. Are we seeing more influence from the Euro High because the Atlantic is not in rampant mode or vice versa?

 

Either way, it's rather premature to safely say what the weather has in store for more than a week in advance. Sure, comment on what the models show, even FI if need be (hence why I mentioned the eventual arrival of more unsettled conditions) but it would be foolish to conclude too much now. Not too long ago the start of November was looking very unsettled.... 

[legritter]

I backed up what I said with charts and have a look at some of the posts following mine, the Euro high is here to stay for the foreseeable keeping us in a mild flow.  

Yes certainly looks like a mild outlook on todays charts ,some high temp for late oct /early november but i am of the old school in the fact that Mother nature could swing the other way [no guarantee of course ] all very interesting stuff though  certainly not boring and plenty to discuss on our forum .

i,m going to take full advantage of our weather as things could change in a few weeks ,cheers 

[MPG]

Yes certainly looks like a mild outlook on todays charts ,some high temp for late oct /early november but i am of the old school in the fact that Mother nature could swing the other way [no guarantee of course ] all very interesting stuff though  certainly not boring and plenty to discuss on our forum .

i,m going to take full advantage of our weather as things could change in a few weeks ,cheers 

Not boring? A big HP sat there doing nothing and keeping the british isles relatively calm.......thats boring legritter.

[Polar Maritime]

Lets please keep discussion to what the Models are showing, Not personal preferances on weather types.

Thanks, PM.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows an unseasonably warm first week of november for the south of the uk with temps in the 16-19 celsius range which is very impressive for early november so you won't need a bonfire to keep you warm in the south on Nov 5th if the 6z is right. 

[legritter]

Not boring? A big HP sat there doing nothing and keeping the british isles relatively calm.......thats boring legritter.

Yes i agree if it sat there for ages that would warrant being boring for some ,but i was referring to the fact that its where we go from there ,Remember two years ago when we had very boring charts forecast for ages then Bingo along came storms and bucket full of rain ,Thats what makes our forum tick ,so perhaps boring but with a twist of [The unknown],cheers   

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of settled weather around on this afternoon's UKMO whilst the far north and west could see show rain or showers at first even here it will settle down given time mild over the weekend, but with an increasing risk of frost and fog next week temperatures could be a bit lower especially where any fog lingers

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The Gfs 6z shows an unseasonably warm first week of november for the south of the uk with temps in the 16-19 celsius range which is very impressive for early november so you won't need a bonfire to keep you warm in the south on Nov 5th if the 6z is right. 

 

cool frosty! good to have you back

[Cloud 10]

12z UKMO has found some extra amplification in the Atlantic at day 6,although looks on its own at the moment.

 

[nick sussex]

The limpet Euro high looks like its going nowhere in a hurry, troughing comes and goes to the west but never sufficiently amplified or digging far enough south to help pull high pressure much further north to its east.

 

That digging trough scenario looks like the only realistic way to bring some more seasonal temps given the overall NH pattern.

 

There are some differences however between tonights UKMO and GFS at T144hrs, the former is more amplified and could edge the high a bit further north.

 

ECM on its way out, its similar to the other outputs zzzzzzz!

Edited October 28, 2015 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

cool frosty! good to have you back

Thanks

The Gfs 12z is really very mild indeed for the time of year across the south of the uk with air sourced from southern europe, actually mild is the wrong word, it's warm in the south this weekend and most of next week with max temps in the range of 17 / 19 c for the end of October & first week of November which is very impressive. Most of the uk has a largely fine outlook thanks to the strong Euro High but the far NW looks unsettled and windy at times next week and then even those areas become settled later in the run with pressure rising, this run is even more anticyclonic than the 6z.

Edited October 28, 2015 by Frosty.

[mountain shadow]

The limpet Euro high looks like its going nowhere in a hurry, troughing comes and goes to the west but never sufficiently amplified or digging far enough south to help pull high pressure much further north to its east.

 

That digging trough scenario looks like the only realistic way to bring some more seasonal temps given the overall NH pattern.

 

There are some differences however between tonights UKMO and GFS at T144hrs, the former is more amplified and could edge the high a bit further north.

 

ECM on its way out, its similar to the other outputs zzzzzzz!

MJO currently forecast to die in Phase 1, so little help their for a change in pattern. Just have to roll with it for now.

[knocker]

The GEFS 6-10 anomaly tonight shows little change with a flat pattern over the US, trough Greenland and the HP to the east of the UK with a weak feed to the HP to the south west. Atlantic systems may just impact on the far north.

 

The 11-15 does just edge trough a little east and a suspicion of ridging into Scandinavia which could well bring the westerly circulation of the trough into play towards the end of the period.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited October 28, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Best now than having a COD deep in mid winter....I really am confident of an end of Nov high retrogression getting north of Scandinavia pulling in colder air an temps

 

Considering this is the end of October what exactly is that confidence based upon apart from the almost frenetic desire for cold weather?

[solarcycle]

Considering this is the end of October what exactly is that confidence based upon apart from the almost frenetic desire for cold weather?

Probably the same confidence that treats the MJO as the sole driver and predictor of the weather of a small island on the western edge of Europe.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi everyone! Despite the mild to very mild air it looks like it wont be always that mild ...! If Gfs and Ecm are correct it looks a fogfest for a good part of the nation come Sunday morning. So with clearing skies on Halloween plenty of scope for fog to develop widely under that moist, airmass, so even though the charts for November 1st look potentially very mild , Potentially there is some places that will stay under that mist and fog all day resulting in low surface  temperatures....   After that the Ecm looks to be stirring things up a lot more than Gfs , ...    

[Captain Shortwave]

It does look like we will shift the fronts away for the weekend, Saturday looks very mild or warm across a good part of the UK with sunny spells, Sunday looks fine again though with light winds there could be some mist and fog in places.

 

Beyond that, no surprise that the majority consensus is for heights to remain over Europe with a south to south westerly flow dominating. This fits with the previous strong El nino state for now at least. So overall the outlook looks mild, possibly very mild as the high loses a little influence allowing an increasing breeze and rain for the north west.

ECM ens

 

No sign of any real change during the first week of November, for fun the GEM operational could potentially see 20C reached every day during the first week of November. An exceptional feat if that came off. It is certain possible given the current modelling at least.

[knocker]

Last night's 18z GEFS(P) anomaly was dominated by a deep trough in the western Atlantic and HP just to the east of the UK. An indicator that the the UK would remain under the influence of HP centred to the E/SE for the duration.

 

Fast forwards to a general overview of this morning's gfs run. Essentially the UK remaining under the influence of the HP to the east oft reinforced by HP feeding from the south west. At the same time cyclonic activity being confined to the mid Atlantic where the upper trough resides with occasional little excursions to to the NW/N. A couple of snapshots to give the idea. The woodshed remains lurker free. Olez.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

An additional titbit

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 16h16 hours ago

Talk about a planetary scale Rossby Wave Train starting from the Pacific and going all the way around the globe

Edited October 29, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Little change to the GEFS anomalies this morning. Trough mid Atlantic, HP to the east. Ergo surface analysis high to the east stretching SW with the Atlantic train terminating at Rockall. So basically stream lines southerly veering SW and above average temps becoming average.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[MR EXTREMES]

not even november yet its not uncommon to see this set up.

 

not expecting nothing wintry for sometime but second half of winter looks more odds on to be better for the cold crew.

models are simply stuck in this fixed pattern for sometimebut this does seem to suggest a weaker atlantic which is not something we had at the same time last year.

certainly could be some impressive late autumn and early winter temp maxes although the models do try to lower pressure to our south or sw any movement north of the eastern se heights could open the door,

but with lower pressure zippping over the top through and past iceland this does not help if cold is what your looking for.

id be happy with average temps and dry frosty nights and bright sunny days.

Edited October 29, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Nick F]

Well, the models are consistently progging a mild first week and perhaps first half to November, thanks to a stagnant/slow-moving longwave pattern across the Atlantic and Europe consisting of a persistent ridge over Europe and slow moving upper trough close to the west. So above average temps continuing into early November, though unsettled at times, as we are never too far away from the influence of the Atlantic trough, though I suspect the N and W seeing the lion's share of rainfall for now.

 

Have done a blog on early November's prospects, certainly no signal to dig out those winter woolies out yet: 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6966;sess=

[Summer Sun]

ECM this morning shows mild even very mild air at times over the next 10 days whilst some weak weather fronts could cross affect parts of the NW next week for the vast majority it will be dry and mild

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows the weather becoming warm across the south of the uk through the end of october and the first week of november with max temps in the south easily reaching 18 / 19 c and a few spots in the s / se could reach 70 f in the next 7-10 days so early november looks like being remarkably warm in the south for the time of year. This run is dominated by the Euro High and largely fine conditions further south and east with unsettled and breezier weather mainly restricted to the far north and west but it's the warmth across the south which is the most impressive aspect of this and other output this morning with temperatures well above the seasonal average across southern britain.

[legritter]

The Gfs 00z shows the weather becoming warm across the south of the uk through the end of october and the first week of november with max temps in the south easily reaching 18 / 19 c and a few spots in the s / se could reach 70 f in the next 7-10 days so early november looks like being remarkably warm in the south for the time of year. This run is dominated by the Euro High and largely fine conditions further south and east with unsettled and breezier weather mainly restricted to the far north and west but it's the warmth across the south which is the most impressive aspect of this and other output this morning with temperatures well above the seasonal average across southern britain.

JUst about to post similar ,yes very mild if not record breaking temperatures over the coming week or so going on current charts ,perhaps still a question mark on the location of high pressure towards the end of todays later forecast models .

of course if you are stuck under thick cloud not so good but in any brighter spells the BBQS could very well wake up and rattle away hoping for a sizzzle up ,cheers