eastern pacific Major Hurricane Patricia

[William Grimsley]

Guys, let's keep it cool. I was only making a fact, don't try to shoot me with your other facts.

[Hurricane Debby]

Yeah, not really enjoying the disappointed tone from some that there wasn't more destruction....

 

Nor me, it was a about breaking records more than breaking people ! I was actually really relieved to see the news this morning because it could have a been a lot, lot worse. Although I guess the true extent of the damage we won't get to know until later on today.

[mountain shadow]

Guys, let's keep it cool. I was only making a fact, don't try to shoot me with your other facts.

No, you weren't making a fact . You were distorting the facts.

[Steve C]

Yeah, not really enjoying the disappointed tone from some that there wasn't more destruction....

 

Yes, I was thinking the same. Freakish behaviour!

[Jo Farrow]

few updates 

https://www.facebook.com/VisitLaManzanilla?fref=nf

[Summer Sun]

Nevado De Colima has recorded 260mm, 10.25 inches of rain in last 24 hours

Edited October 24, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Midlands Ice Age]

I think the fact that the area with the most intense winds was relatively narrow has been a blessing but I would wait until it has cleared the region completely before drawing many conclusions about its impact, especially re. flooding (and interaction with Colima's ash?)

Either way it has been a fascinating situation meteorologically.

 

I agree with you Doc....

 

Lets see what the casualty and damage figures are come dawn.

 

What happens if in the eye there is total devastation?

 

If there is no 'eye' then I too would be more sceptic about the 'power'.

 

The locals were not fully prepared for it. I have just read the whole thread (havng been unavailable yesterday),  and it is quite clear that there didn't have the time to prepare.(And a lot of doom-laden posts on here!).  The people  all appeared calm and I have seen footage of locals wondering around on the beach 20 mins before and while the eye was only 2 miles out to sea.  Something very odd about it all!

 

If there is a section of totally devasted core-hit land then it still could be verified.

 

I have seen the damage done by really powerful hurricame cores. Hurricane Gilbert was one. Nothing was left standing for about 2 -5 miles around where it hit land..

 

The devastation from this storm would be phenominal.  Lets see what actually happened.

 

MIA

Edited October 24, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Nick F]

I imagine when daylight returns to western Mexico we may see images of catastrophic damage where the small and tight inner core pucnched the very strong winds. Remembering the narrow path of strongest winds passed over a sparesly populated area too, 50-100 miles away and the wind damage is much less evident, particularly areas  west of the storm eye, where winds were blowing offshore and the mountains protected the more populated coastal areas.

 

Although there wasn't widespread destruction from the strong winds, given the small area of destructive winds that made landfall, it was still Cat 5 on landfall. Which makes it historic.

 

With regards to not much of a storm surge compared to predicted, I'm no expert at oceanography, but I'm guessing the deeper waters offshore of the west coast of Mexico, where there's a deep ocean trench meant, that water wasn't allowed to pile up like it would, say, the Gulf of Mexico - where the seas are much  shallower offshore.

Edited October 24, 2015 by Nick F

[knocker]

With regards to not much of a storm surge compared to predicted, I'm no expert at oceanography, but I'm guessing the deeper waters offshore of the west coast of Mexico, where there's a deep ocean trench meant, that water wasn't allowed to pile up like it would, say, the Gulf of Mexico - where the seas are much  shallower offshore.

 

This would certainly play a part but I also think that though Patricia was historic in many respects it was actually quite small in comparison with Haiyan, Katrina and Sandy. This and the astonishing speed with which it developed not allowing a lengthy build up, along with the topography of the sea floor, shape of the coast line, would mitigate the storm surge I would think. Just a thought as I'm also no expert.

Edited October 24, 2015 by knocker

[skifreak]

Places where footage emerged from last night probably didn't exceed storm force, but the narrow extreme wind band means where the core passed over things will have gone from merely wild to unimaginable very fast. Despite the headlines about the windspeed, the greatest risk to most people from this storm is the rainfall. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

This would certainly play a part but I also think that though Patricia was historic in many respects it was actually quite small in comparison with Haiyan, Katrina and Sandy. This and the astonishing speed with which it developed not allowing a lengthy build up, along with the topography of the sea floor, shape of the coast line, would mitigate the storm surge I would think. Just a thought as I'm also no expert.

 

Knocker..

 

I too am no expert in these matters, but I always thought that storm surges were worse where deep sea waters come upon shallow waters very quickly as there is so much energy to dissipate and a short space of time.

That was the explanation given for the east coast floods (espescially around the Thames estuary) and also the Indinosian Tsunami.

I watched the video on one webcam for 5 minutes,( from what was going to be the centre) expecting to see large amounts of huge breakers  and white surf. You could just see the waves breaking (guess) 50 -100 meters off shore and rolling in probably 2-3 meters high and  in the normal way and people moving around on the beach !!.

 

Something odd(strange) about this super-hurricane!

 

I guess its still to early to detect an area where the eye hit yet?

 

MIA

Edited October 24, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Nick L]

The GFS is giving some serious rainfall predictions for southern Texas in the coming days as the remnants of Patricia move through.

[Summer Sun]

The GFS is giving some serious rainfall predictions for southern Texas in the coming days as the remnants of Patricia move through.

 

Yep USA GP weekend as well P2 was cancelled yesterday because of heavy rain and unsafe conditions for the medical helicopter to take off

[Nick L]

Yep USA GP weekend as well P2 was cancelled yesterday because of heavy rain and unsafe conditions for the medical helicopter to take off

 

GFS 24 hour predictions has a huge swathe of southern TX getting close to 200mm. My friend lives in College Station, currently in the middle of the highest predictions.

[Mokidugway]

The winds aren't the problem it's flash flooding landslides etc ,I've witnessed a flash flood in a dry wash in New Mexico one of the scariest things I've seen ..

[knocker]

Knocker..

 

I too am no expert in these matters, but I always thought that storm surges were worse where deep sea waters come upon shallow waters very quickly as there is so much energy to dissipate and a short space of time.

That was the explanation given for the east coast floods (espescially around the Thames estuary) and also the Indinosian Tsunami.

I watched the video on one webcam for 5 minutes,( from what was going to be the centre) expecting to see large amounts of huge breakers  and white surf. You could just see the waves breaking (guess) 50 -100 meters off shore and rolling in probably 2-3 meters high and  in the normal way and people moving around on the beach !!.

 

Something odd(strange) about this super-hurricane!

 

I guess its still to early to detect an area where the eye hit yet?

 

MIA

 

Yes that's true to a certain extent. When waves enter shallower waters their wavelength decreases and their height increases. A tsunami being the classic example. The 1953 event was caused by northerly gales blowing down the North Sea at the time of high tide causing a tidal surge compounded by high waves generated by the wind.

[wimblettben]

Well, all this hype of a Category 5 hurricane. It looks like maybe a Category 1 especially of what I saw last night. All I can see from the live streams right now is lots of flooding and/or loads of lights on. It was certainly less intense than what was expected.

Yes Its clear that the area of strongest winds didn't hit the main cities as we would be seeing a very different picture now.

 

Don't be dissapointed though William, we should all be thankful. I would never wish 200mph sustained winds on anyone and was relieved when I'd seen the cities in Mexico still standing on the morning news.

Edited October 24, 2015 by wimblettben

[Daniel*]

I'm sure there is going to be at least one dead person out of this unfortunately or should I say fortunately the most destructive winds cut through rural areas I suppose the emergency services have not yet had a proper look due to its remoteness yet. There are also I guess many villages near the mountainous parts and you have to worry about mudslides etc - and again it takes time to mobilise the right people, it would be a miracle indeed, if there were no deaths - I expect this to change though, It is unprecedented for a 'super' hurricane like this.

Edited October 24, 2015 by Daniel*

[chapmanslade]

http://kxan.com/weather/radar/

 

Fascinating rainfall radar loop from the Austin area shows just how much rain they are getting and will get tonight

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 300mm of rain is forecast to fall at the Circuit of the Americas near Austin today conditions should gradually improve during tomorrow as ex Hurricane Patricia continues her journey towards New Orleans

[Hurricane Debby]

I am being treated with armchair storm chasing this weekend. I'm a big F1 fan and this weekend is crucial for Hamilton so I'll be watching this and the weather avidly !

[Spikecollie]

Yes Its clear that the area of strongest winds didn't hit the main cities as we would be seeing a very different picture now.

 

Don't be dissapointed though William, we should all be thankful. I would never wish 200mph sustained winds on anyone and was relieved when I'd seen the cities in Mexico still standing on the morning news.

Thankfully a reduced impact on populated areas, but for the folks in mountain areas the worst is still to come...

[cyclonic happiness]

Is the precipitation going to be getting as far north as California? At least it might do a bit of good, what with the drought there?

[cyclonic happiness]

BTW, why was the storm travelling in the direction it was? Doesn't they usually come in east to west at that latitude?

[lettice]

Live stream for local and f1 weather reports form Kxan news channel for the Austin, Texas area

 

http://livestream.com/accounts/1506296/events/1569171

Edited October 24, 2015 by lettice