Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's absolutely no current sign (stress current) of such a turnaround before January (note too today's update of the GloSea5 prognosis for D-J-M on the UKMO website and the switch towards +ve temp anomalies - albeit rather weakly - versus the October output looking into same period).

 

 

I've looked at the Glosea5 output Ian, obviously you're privvy to more information than us but to my untrained eye it looks decent for a mean Scandi trough and perhaps a mean NW'ly airflow into winter.

 

Dec-Feb

 

 

Jan-Mar

 

 

Temperature profiles misleading from looking at those synoptics perhaps?

[Methuselah]

I've looked at the Glosea5 output Ian, obviously you're privvy to more information than us but to my untrained eye it looks decent for a mean Scandi trough and perhaps a mean NW'ly airflow into winter.

 

Dec-Feb

 

 

Jan-Mar

 

 

Temperature profiles misleading from looking at those synoptics perhaps?

But surely those are mere anomalies, CC...Does a mean SLP of 2 hpa lower than average (over a three-month period) equate to a specific weather-pattern?

[Cheshire Freeze]

But surely those are mere anomalies, CC...Does a mean SLP of 2 hpa lower than average (over a three-month period) equate to a specific weather-pattern?

 

I don't want to derail the thread but this can also be applied to shorter range anomalies too....A mean NW'ly airflow would of course not preclude periods of SW'lys, for example, it merely suggests higher instances of airmasses between W'ly and N'ly origin. Which, incidentally, has been the theme of the model for the last 3 updates or so.

Edited November 9, 2015 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What I read is the term 'blocked' not in the offing [which is fine,  as that does not preclude pM or aM air getting to parts of the UK.  Re Nov the pattern is trying to shift and flatten the Continental block and from me it will succeed with potential 'wild' spell starting last third Nov......kitchen sink could be coming to town

 

Even this as we build up will bring nasty wind funnel conditions to lee side of pennines....and probably a not required big drenching to windward side, western Highlands, Wales etc

 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 9, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Paul]

Just a quick note for those who maybe haven't read it - we have a new posting guide for the model thread, which I'd ask everyone to have a look at. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84360-the-model-thread-survival-guide-for-winter-201516-please-read/

[tinybill]

What I read is the term 'blocked' not in the offing [which is fine,  as that does not preclude pM or aM air getting to parts of the UK.  Re Nov the pattern is trying to shift and flatten the Continental block and from me it will succeed with potential 'wild' spell starting last third Nov......kitchen sink could be coming to town

 

Even this as we build up will bring nasty wind funnel conditions to lee side of pennines....and probably a not required big drenching to windward side, western Highlands, Wales etc

 

 

 

 

BFTP

just had a look deepinto fantasy world there look like no let up reg rain lots  of  it heading   uk  way  i..e  floods  next

 

  floods

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.p

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

[Methuselah]

I don't want to derail the thread but this can also be applied to shorter range anomalies too....A mean NW'ly airflow would of course not preclude periods of SW'lys, for example, it merely suggests higher instances of airmasses between W'ly and N'ly origin. Which, incidentally, has been the theme of the model for the last 3 updates or so.

In a way, I guess we agree. But a forecast anomaly is precisely that: it indicates a marginal increase in the likelihood of certain patterns, of course; but, it doesn't necessarily follow that those patterns will ever materialize???

 

IMO, history tells us not to put too much faith in long-range forecasts...

Edited November 9, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Summer Sun]

just had a look deepinto fantasy world there look like no let up reg rain lots  of  it heading   uk  way  i..e  floods  next

 

  floods

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.p

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

GFS is getting consistent now with some worrying totals in western Scotland well over 100mm widely and over 300mm for some parts at the same time the south sees very little rain

 

 

Flooding and landslides quite possible for some western parts of Scotland

[bluearmy]

No sign of blocking - Yep

Then again the 12z GEFS op and bias corrected do raise high anomolys Nw Europe towards the end of week 2

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

just had a look deepinto fantasy world there look like no let up reg rain lots  of  it heading   uk  way  i..e  floods  next

 

  floods

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.p

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

Indeed TB, a concern and I think MetO warnings will come if this continues to come to fruition

 

Interesting feature from ECM neartime, could be a bit 'lively' locally

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 9, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Folks . Looks like a simple outcome , Jet Stream powering its way to the UK, so a mixture of southwest/west and northwesterly winds in the days ahead. Now for the Difficult part. Models differ from one to the next ,but there could well be problems with rain and wind during this time period along with big fluctuations in temperature , models especially Ecm show a demise in the Euro high, Thank God for that and let the party begin.......    

[fergieweather]

Returning to the near-term, watch for the interesting set-up into tomorrow AM running showery rain - some heavy - from west to east across southern Britain. This meso vortex (or vortices) emanating from the trough disruption down off Portugal will cross above the rear part of the 14-16C WBPT plume over the UK, threatening deep instability from elevated bases up at circa 5000ft and tops up to or beyond -20C. As UKMO note, this is "...a highly unusual situation for November", yielding a 30% probability of 30mm being dumped somewhere underneath it (most likely SW England - S Wales) and more widely to 10mm. The uniqueness of the situation means there's no real precedent as to how models have synthesised it all... so a magical mystery tour and one to watch!

[Petesampson]

What I read is the term 'blocked' not in the offing [which is fine, as that does not preclude pM or aM air getting to parts of the UK. Re Nov the pattern is trying to shift and flatten the Continental block and from me it will succeed with potential 'wild' spell starting last third Nov......kitchen sink could be coming to town

Even this as we build up will bring nasty wind funnel conditions to lee side of pennines....and probably a not required big drenching to windward side, western Highlands, Wales etc

Post of the day right here from blastfromthepast.

Hello everyone, my name is Peter and I'm usually an observer from the outside looking in to these forums but I really feel that I have to come in and say something as an outsider looking in and to respond to the despondency levels that have been brought about in here today. I don't think that this fergie guy has deliberately come in one of the most popular weather forums and where cold and snow lovers reside to say or gloat in any way about mild weather. That would be an evil thing to do right? lol I would like to add this though. These Glosea and big MetO models never seen what they called an unpredictable summer coming until it was over, so what's to say they have it right this time around? First post

BFTP

Post of the day right here.

Hello everyone, my name is Peter and I'm usually an observer from the outside looking in to these forums but I really feel that I have to come in and say something as an outsider looking in and to respond to the despondency levels that have been brought about in here today. I don't think that this fergie guy has deliberately come in one of the most popular weather forums and where cold and snow lovers reside to say or gloat in any way about mild weather. That would be an evil thing to do right? lol I would like to add this though. These Glosea and big MetO models never seen what they called an unpredictable summer coming until it was over, so what's to say they have it right this time around? First post

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11835279/Soggy-summer-was-impossible-to-predict-says-Met-Office.html

Edited November 9, 2015 by Petesampson

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Returning to the near-term, watch for the interesting set-up into tomorrow AM running showery rain - some heavy - from west to east across southern Britain. This meso vortex (or vortices) emanating from the trough disruption down off Portugal will cross above the rear part of the 14-16C WBPT plume over the UK, threatening deep instability from elevated bases up at circa 5000ft and tops up to or beyond -20C. As UKMO note, this is "...a highly unusual situation for November", yielding a 30% probability of 30mm being dumped somewhere underneath it (most likely SW England - S Wales) and more widely to 10mm. The uniqueness of the situation means there's no real precedent as to how models have synthesised it all... so a magical mystery tour and one to watch!

 

Excellent stuff....I for one say thanks for this, what great insight

 

best regards

 

BFTP

 

Oh and thanks Pete.....unworthy...but thanks 

Edited November 9, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[jmatt81]

Post of the day right here.

Hello everyone, my name is Peter and I'm usually an observer from the outside looking in to these forums but I really feel that I have to come in and say something as an outsider looking in and to respond to the despondency levels that have been brought about in here today. I don't think that this fergie guy has deliberately come in one of the most popular weather forums and where cold and snow lovers reside to say or gloat in any way about mild weather. That would be an evil thing to do right? lol I would like to add this though. These Glosea and big MetO models never seen what they called an unpredictable summer coming until it was over, so what's to say they have it right this time around? First post

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11835279/Soggy-summer-was-impossible-to-predict-says-Met-Office.html

 

That 'fergie guy'? A fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and weather forecaster for BBC Points West?

[Gael_Force]

Excellent stuff....I for one say thanks for this, what great insight

 

best regards

 

BFTP

 

Oh and thanks Pete.....unworthy...but thanks 

Agreed 

Just one question on the post, is wet bulb temperature the same as theta-w?

[Paul]

Can we keep this on the topic of the models please..

[knocker]

Agreed 

Just one question on the post, is wet bulb temperature the same as theta-w?

 

Wet bulb potential temp is the same as theta-w.

[Gael_Force]

Wet bulb potential temp is the same as theta-w.

TYVM Knocker. So this is the crazy situation Mr F is referring to, 16c theta-w currently modelled for midnight.

[knocker]

TYVM Knocker. So this is the crazy situation Mr F is referring to, 16c theta-w currently modelled for midnight.

 

Yes and this from the 12z gfs

[Mucka]

Looking at the ensembles we will struggle to see single digit daytime temperatures until at least the last week of November.

I don't mind mild in the autumn but I would rather not see this still going come mid December - even with plenty of Winter left.

I hate unseasonable warmth around the holidays.

[bradymk]

This El Niño keeps moving west....

Edited November 10, 2015 by bradythemole

[knocker]

An overview of the latest EC32 update

 

To set the tone, so to speak, the 500mb anomaly next Tuesday 17^th. Low Alaska  HP eastern North America with ridging Labrador Strait, positive tilted trough Iceland to mid Atlantic and HP to the S/SE of the UK. Surface analysis a westerly regime with periods of very unsettled weather over the UK but the better the further south you are and temps a little above average.

 

Moving on a week to the 24^th still HP NE Canada but no ridging Labrador Strait, the HP adjacent to the UK has moved away and the Atlantic trough is now neutral tilted to the west,  Thus a very mobile Atlantic with periods of wet and windy weather for all but the effects still worse the further north one travels.  Temps varying around the average but still possibly just above on average.

 

Much of the same until the end of the month although towards the end perhaps the trough not quite so dominant as the HP to the SW pushes north a tad producing a slightly more benign zonality with temps about average.

 

No great signal for the first eleven days of December but looks like very much more of the same with LP to the NW and HP to the SW giving a zonal flow from a westerly quadrant with temps around average.

 

Summary

 

An unsettled westerly orientated regime for the whole period, bringing periods of wet and windy weather which does incline to a N/S split with temps initially above average but becoming average later. There will of course be some short term variation as systems run along the north east/east bound train so short periods of more wintry weather will occur but mainly confined to the north.

 

The three main upper feature for the run are LP western Pole, HP NE North America and Atlantic trough, all of varying in intensity during the run.

 

Abandon hope all ye who enter here.(sign above the woodshed)

[bluearmy]

Note that the post day 10 gfs op over the ne atlantic (ie. On our doorstep) looks pretty much inline with the extended ECM ens mean from yesterday. Some quite deep depressions possible in association with low mean anomolys predicted. the euro high retreating a bit se but not far enough to enable the mean trough to get across . more likely it sits to our west.

[knocker]

A good example of the N/S split next weekend

Chart weatherbell