Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

[fergieweather]

Latest EC seasonal. Not one for seasonal models though.....

ec seasonal.png

Perusing the whole new suite of the latest output, it's the mild anomalies that remain eye-catching, effectively all the way to March although weakening as they do so. However, the low heights currently to NW migrate to NE of UK during the D-J-F period, before becoming far less pronounced / indistinguishable from climatology later winter (F-M). In almost every respect, it thus mirrors latest GloSea5 pretty compellingly. Edited November 10, 2015 by fergieweather

[bluearmy]

Perusing the whole new suite of the latest output, it's the mild anomalies that remain eye-catching, effectively all the way to March although weakening as they do so. However, the low heights currently to NW migrate to NE of UK during the D-J-F period, before becoming far less pronounced / indistinguishable from climatology later winter (F-M). In almost every respect. it thus mirrors latest GloSea5 pretty compellingly.

Quite spooky how the two outputs look so similar

[Ali1977]

Perusing the whole new suite of the latest output, it's the mild anomalies that remain eye-catching, effectively all the way to March although weakening as they do so. However, the low heights currently to NW migrate to NE of UK during the D-J-F period, before becoming far less pronounced / indistinguishable from climatology later winter (F-M). In almost every respect, it thus mirrors latest GloSea5 pretty compellingly.

Low heights to the NE D-J-F, does that not equate to a colder set up with the door opened to heights in the Greemland area?

[blizzard81]

Perusing the whole new suite of the latest output, it's the mild anomalies that remain eye-catching, effectively all the way to March although weakening as they do so. However, the low heights currently to NW migrate to NE of UK during the D-J-F period, before becoming far less pronounced / indistinguishable from climatology later winter (F-M). In almost every respect, it thus mirrors latest GloSea5 pretty compellingly.

Hi Ian, thank you for the extra insight you offer to this forum. I must say that your posts this pre winter season seem very bullish with regards to this winter being mild. Your comments are certainly more bullish than previous winter seasons. It probably reflects the confidence the meto have in their Glosea model.

[damianslaw]

The latest Cohen AO forecast is a very interesting read - giving a good insight into the likely state of play of the northern hemispheric pattern as we enter the winter. Lowest heights centred over Alaska and to lesser extent Siberia - (and not in the atlantic sector), which is different to winter 2013/14 and 2014/2015 where core lowest heights were settled on Greenland. Such developments are set to enable strong build of heights to the north of scandi/NW Russia - not a bad position for longer term colder prospects as we move the winter proper, as it would likely help aid warming in the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) which could downwell into very different synoptics eventually. The unknown is the behaviour of El Nino.

 

In the meantime the form horse for the foreseeable is most likely a very unsettled picture (westerly airstream), but not without shots of cold air from the NW affecting the north in particular from time to time - all very normal service for latter part of autumn - into December, the most 'westerly' atlantic dominated period of the year and conditions will feel preety seasonal i.e. wet, dull and stormy.. with snow on higher ground in the north.

[Ali1977]

Potential for snow Manchester Northwards by day 9 on this evenings GFS.

Edited November 10, 2015 by Ali1977

[radiohead]

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Quite wintry for some

 

Euro block going, going...gone

 

 

 

Yes snapshots and one is deep FI and the 18z!!!, but a decent change coming

BFTP

Edited November 10, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheshire Freeze]

Perusing the whole new suite of the latest output, it's the mild anomalies that remain eye-catching, effectively all the way to March although weakening as they do so. However, the low heights currently to NW migrate to NE of UK during the D-J-F period, before becoming far less pronounced / indistinguishable from climatology later winter (F-M). In almost every respect, it thus mirrors latest GloSea5 pretty compellingly.

 

I would suspect that any anomaly of lower pressure to the NE would be a good indicator of a mean NW'ly flow across the UK...thus indicating a higher liklihood of polar maritime incursions. As ever, I'm taking any temperature anomaly forecasts with a huge pinch of salt- especially in a NW'ly regime where swings anywhere from above average to below average can be observed!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFS 18z

 

 

ECM

 

 

Same hymn sheet

 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[cheshire snow]

It would have been interesting to see the next two frames on

This Morning ECM,way out in FI at T240 the -5 uppers reach

Northern Scotland,with lots of cold air upto the NW of the UK

C.S

 

 Following on from this post yesterday the ECM in FI at T240 -7 Uppers over Scotland/NI/and parts of NW England 

 PPN will be turning wintry especially over high ground,GFS not to shabby either with more seasonal Temperatures

 and later in the run some wintry weather especially over high ground 

 

 C.S

[IDO]

We can see from today's GFS that the onslaught is well under way with a never ending westerly zonal pattern and the PV growing with momentum. At D16 the PV looks horrid and it is hard not to get down beat about the medium term:

 

 

 

With the heights lowering over the UK during the next couple of weeks there is every chance of some PM incursions, though with a very mobile pattern these will be mostly fleeting. There are still some MLB in the NH during the next 16 days, which during October, with the PV rather tame, they allowed some blocking, however the more organised PV driving the Pacific jet means any attempt to ridge is thwarted by the active synoptics.

 

ECM at D10:   

 

So LP systems crossing the UK with alternating warm and cold fronts suggest wind and rain with average to slightly above conditions. 

 

Assuming a core of the trop PV becomes established in the next two weeks, then where that settles may define how wet the Atlantic sector becomes:

 

Mean:

 

That placement in an overall nasty setup would allow for the possibility of a pressure build somewhere in our region, which could negate some of that zonality. Being a small Island it is rather hit and miss as to what the UK would get in that instance, from AM to TM air are both possibilities. So the next 2-3 weeks we see (from current output) the fast development of the trop PV and after that we can see where the core of these lower heights sit assuming they are not mobile.

 

 

[Frosty.]

I just want to focus on next week because the Gfs 00z op shows Arctic air trying to push south and it does eventually push quite far south later next week, scotland is cold next week, indeed it becomes progressively colder through next week with a risk of some snow, especially across higher ground and with very cold frosty nights over the snowfields, I know this sounds like a joke but it's what this run shows. The jetstream next week is being forced further south with atlantic lows swinging across the uk on a more southerly track with cold air then pushing further south across england and wales through the second half of next week with a risk of sleet and snow, especially on hills. This would be quite a shock to the system but for all the coldies..a very nice shock indeed!!!          

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's not even mid November and winter is being written off.....and as it still will be ONLY be November I cannot for the life of me understand why folk wouldn't be interested in the potential 'very interesting' weather set up that approaches.  Lps attacking and hitting us on more southerly track.  pM air with aM air trying to get into the mix, GFS showing channel lows.  Its gonna get stormy, wet, colder and even snowy for some...and its only November.  Let's not seek the freeze yet, or the perfect blocking.....let's just seek getting rid of that Euro High....and it looks like being got rid of.  This is FI but I'd take this anytime in Nov!!!

 

 

And for this coming Sunday....more feasible but could tweak better or worse

 

The seasonal models, as can be said for all of us, make big misses in longer term...and even miss the trick in not so long term.

 

BFTP

Edited November 11, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Liam J]

The GFS OP was one of the coldest in the suite for 2m min temps, over N England & parts of Ireland at least, from around the 20th to 23rd. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

Certainly quite a shock to the system for many on Friday with single figure temperatures for most.

 

today..  Friday..

 

 

Dewpoints near freezing as well so it will feel cold.

 

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens this morning again shows low pressure rather than high pressure starting to dominate maybe cold enough for some snow on the highest parts in the north at times, but away from here temps will be around average maybe even slightly above average at times still for the south

 

[Man With Beard]

Well we've been here a few times but today I think the models have reached the point of no return - the influence of the Euro high over the UK will quickly diminish next week, leave space for Atlantic storms to have much more control over our weather, and a much more typical mix of milder/colder interludes for all. This process begins tomorrow for northern areas, but will establish itself over the whole of the UK by next Monday/Tuesday. I think it's too late for another euro high revival for next week at least

[tight isobar]

gfs6z

Medium'term continues a certain colder

Shot.

With colder air digging a long way south

Around the 19/11/2015.

Atm still marginaly open to debate

On exacting of polar incursion

On temp' gradiants.

Meanwhile the northern hemispherical

Synoptics continue to catch the eye

[pip22]

Next weekend could be interesting as the jet stream digs further south:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:cold:

[Ali1977]

The outlook may look zonal or not exactly cold according to long range models and professionals, however the PV and NH set up still looks good for further on into Nov/Dec.  FI (no doubt will change) looks like the PV is going on its hols to Siberia, a few frames into deep deep FI we could have some cross polar flow Northerlies coming in.  Whilst in reality this won't come into fruition, I still think this year has something to offer that maybe the models aren't quite seeing yet. Atleast we are starting to budge that Euro high away - assisting the Alpine ski season in the process. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Well the latest 6z output continues to paint a colder picture especially across the North from next week with pressure dropping over Scandinavia keeping the UK in pM airmass for longer. Some subtle differences between the 0Z and 6Z but the overall emphasis being the losing of heights over Europe and a dropping NAO.

Edited November 11, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[jmatt81]

One wonders what ex-Hurricane Kate will do to the overall flow

 

[Ali1977]

A fair amount of GEFS showing heights to our NE. This being the pick of the bunch.

[nick sussex]

Until the demise of the Euro high comes within T168hrs then I'd be wary of viewing it as a done deal. The outputs for the last few days have suggested its demise and have backtracked. What we've seen is outputs at days 8 to 10 never verifying and any Euro high demise constantly put back.

 

I'm not sure the ski resorts are hitting the total panic button yet but if these constant backtracks continue for much longer then it will really be alarm bells ringing.

 

The actual warmth in Europe is  unprecedented for the time of year with records being broken since the start of November and if this continues we won't see monthly records being broken by a degree or two but by huge amounts.