Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards

[Ali1977]

By no means guaranteed a chilly mid month, but it's starting to look odds on. It wasn't too long ago the Met Office said a zonal month ahead, just goes to show that changes can happen at relatively short notice that even the METO can't predict. We'll see I guess, but definitely making for interesting model watching and we are still 4 weeks away from winter.

[phil nw.]

By no means guaranteed a chilly mid month, but it's starting to look odds on. It wasn't too long ago the Met Office said a zonal month ahead, just goes to show that changes can happen at relatively short notice that even the METO can't predict. We'll see I guess, but definitely making for interesting model watching and we are still 4 weeks away from winter.

The ens.continue to show a colder trend although i would still say we are looking at a zonal(west to east)pattern with brief north westerly shots of Polar air behind passing lows.

Given more ridging coming out of N.America than is currently modeled then we could squeeze something more interesting out of this mobile pattern.At the present time that Euro/Azores high is the party pooper preventing anything really cold heading this way.

[knocker]

By no means guaranteed a chilly mid month, but it's starting to look odds on. It wasn't too long ago the Met Office said a zonal month ahead, just goes to show that changes can happen at relatively short notice that even the METO can't predict. We'll see I guess, but definitely making for interesting model watching and we are still 4 weeks away from winter.

 

What do you base that on if I may ask (though I suppose it depends on the definition of chilly). And in what way is the METO wrong considering there have been only a couple of runs since the last update, which I wouldn't put much faith in anyway considering the divergence.

[nick sussex]

The Euro high finally starts to depart at T240hrs but its painfully slow and upstream its a complicated puzzle of phasing, low track etc.

 

Very difficult to know what the end result might be but some signs of a change towards mid-month with the jet further south and the Euro high being dragged off stage after too many encores!

[bluearmy]

The fi ECM beginning to tease - incoming chunk of vortex on the extrapolated 00z op.

this is the first winter test of the new gefs and they were keen to find amplification post mid month on this side of the NH. looks like they sniffed a solution but just how amplified, how sustained and where it sets up the lw pattern still undecided.

[SMU]

Evening all -

A whiff ( like the old bisto advert ) of something more seasonal in around 9-12 days time with some sort of +VE anomaly in the northern atlantic - maybe even into greenland-

A long way off though & the last attempt by The ECM was pretty shocking...

Im not bothered by the lack of any cold pre 15th november as it amounts to pretty much nothing anyway

So I suppose the opening of winter snow 'availability' starts in 9 days time...

Fingers crossed we start seeing some better eye candy nearer that time....

Enjoy

S

[Ali1977]

What do you base that on if I may ask (though I suppose it depends on the definition of chilly). And in what way is the METO wrong considering there have been only a couple of runs since the last update, which I wouldn't put much faith in anyway considering the divergence.

It looks like it may get chilly (seasonal or maybe colder) and the METO didn't predict it. Of course it may not get chillier and then they were right to say a zonel looking month.

[bobbydog]

2 of the major models showing this at day 10-

this has cropped up on a few occasions over the last few runs, look for trends?

trending #greenlandhigh #winterscoming...

Edited November 6, 2015 by bobbydog

[Polar Maritime]

Once again can we please leave METO disscusion for the relavent thead.

Thanks PM.

[chris55]

Something is stirring lol The way the models are behaving with regards to the mid term alerts my attention. Way to early to make any predictions but it seems we may have a little interest bubbling for anyone wanting things to flip to the "cold side" lol.

 

Nothing to shout about at this stage but two colder evolutions at day 10 on the ops, although different, both heading in the right direction!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

[knocker]

The GEFS 6-10 anomaly has the trough to the NW and HP to south leading to zonal flow and a N/S split. The 11-15 has weak ridging over Greenland and brings the trough much more into play whilst dissipating the HP to the south. Ergo much more unsettled for all with streamlines in the westerly quadrant with temps around average but could dip below as systems track through.

[Cloud 10]

JMA joining the increasing ranks of "something colder" for mid-month.

 

[Frosty.]

Last night the Ecm 12z was showing another very mild anticyclonic outlook from T+240 but look how things have changed today, firstly the 00z with a N'ly toppler and now the 12z which I think shows more potential beyond day 10 to develop into a more sustained colder spell. There are more encouraging signs today, especially from the 6z op earlier that the second half of november could bring our first taste of cold weather, the first of many hopefully.     

[knocker]

looks like now going to get colder mid November the meto can get it wrong some times

 

Of course it's going to get colder as the temps are way above average, And if you going to quote the METO and say they are wrong at least use the latest update and it also may be an idea to wait to see if they are wrong.

 

 

UK Outlook for Friday 20 Nov 2015 to Friday 4 Dec 2015:

The second half of November and start of December are likely to be characterised by a north-south split in the weather. The north is likely to see periods of wet and windy weather with a risk of gales at times, although some drier spells are likely too. The south will probably have the greatest amount of dry and fine weather, but even here some rain will pass through at times. Temperatures will generally be around average, although there could be some cold nights where skies become clear leading to a risk of frost and fog.

Updated at: 0133 on Fri 06 Nov 2015

Edited November 6, 2015 by Polar Maritime
No more on METO text please.

[IDO]

By no means guaranteed a chilly mid month, but it's starting to look odds on. It wasn't too long ago the Met Office said a zonal month ahead, just goes to show that changes can happen at relatively short notice that even the METO can't predict. We'll see I guess, but definitely making for interesting model watching and we are still 4 weeks away from winter.

 

You never know! but in the next ten days which is in the reliable temps look well above average: 

 

Looking at the T850s for temps and the mean stays above the seasonal average for all but one of the next 16 days. To me we are just looking at average temps from week 2 and that is not really "chilly":

 

 

 

Looking at the GEM and we see the jet for most of the run sweep across the UK with a zonal westerly flow:

 

   

 

There looks a possibility as a low moves from west to east that it may favour a colder flow as it passes but this will be transient as the pattern looks to be mobile as the AO moves negative for a while. To me there is very little chance of anything cold for the rest of the month, but it is only November so that is no big deal. Though any Atlantic flow still looks miles away from recent year onslaughts. Also the coupling of the strat and trop vortex suggests that the UK will be favoured by their placement, if like me you prefer dry to rain:

 

 

 

As for the heights in the Greenland area that is showing up recently we can see from the bias page that GFS in its last five runs at T168 are overdoing heights in this area dramatically:

 

P:

 

Looking at the 06z D10 Parallel and this shows less heights in that region so that may be a good thing going forward as we need to reduce that bias (assuming the P is right of course). No need to explain D8-10 heights on the ECM as they are not worth the paper they are printed on until they get into the D5-7 range!

[Cheshire Freeze]

As for the heights in the Greenland area that is showing up recently we can see from the bias page that GFS in its last five runs at T168 are overdoing heights in this area dramatically:

 

NOAA_NWS_NCEP_WPC_MODEL_DIAGNOSTIC_-_INTERACTIVE_MODEL_BIAS_PAGE.png P: gfs-0-240 (5).png

 

Looking at the 06z D10 Parallel and this shows less heights in that region so that may be a good thing going forward as we need to reduce that bias (assuming the P is right of course). No need to explain D8-10 heights on the ECM as they are not worth the paper they are printed on until they get into the D5-7 range!

 

Well you certainly have an interesting way of analysing scenarios.....let me get this straight, the fact that BOTH the GFS and ECM both show heights around the Greenland/N Atlantic sector around day 9/10 mean nothing to you? Also, I'm not too sure you're understanding how to use the bias correction correctly.

 

Just for illustration, GFS day 10...

 

 

ECM day 10...

 

 

Taking the day 10 ECM NH chart, you'll see it actually holds plenty of potential, that SW would slide SE, heights building behind it

 

Edited November 6, 2015 by CreweCold

[london and south east kent]

You never know! but in the next ten days which is in the reliable temps look well above average: temp4.png

 

Looking at the T850s for temps and the mean stays above the seasonal average for all but one of the next 16 days. To me we are just looking at average temps from week 2 and that is not really "chilly":

 

MT8_London_ens (9).png  MT2_London_ens.png

 

Looking at the GEM and we see the jet for most of the run sweep across the UK with a zonal westerly flow:

 

gem-5-78.png gem-5-168.png gem-5-216.png gem-5-240.png

 

There looks a possibility as a low moves from west to east that it may favour a colder flow as it passes but this will be transient as the pattern looks to be mobile as the AO moves negative for a while. To me there is very little chance of anything cold for the rest of the month, but it is only November so that is no big deal. Though any Atlantic flow still looks miles away from recent year onslaughts. Also the coupling of the strat and trop vortex suggests that the UK will be favoured by their placement, if like me you prefer dry to rain:

 

gensnh-21-1-384 (2).png  NH_HGT_30mb_384.gif

 

As for the heights in the Greenland area that is showing up recently we can see from the bias page that GFS in its last five runs at T168 are overdoing heights in this area dramatically:

 

NOAA_NWS_NCEP_WPC_MODEL_DIAGNOSTIC_-_INTERACTIVE_MODEL_BIAS_PAGE.png P: gfs-0-240 (5).png

 

Looking at the 06z D10 Parallel and this shows less heights in that region so that may be a good thing going forward as we need to reduce that bias (assuming the P is right of course). No need to explain D8-10 heights on the ECM as they are not worth the paper they are printed on until they get into the D5-7 range!

lovely greeny high the colder signal goes on

[Paul]

Can I ask everyone to have a read of the Model thread survival guide we've put together for the upcoming winter. It contains a whole lot of info including posting guidelines, info on what the team will do if/when problems occur, and a bunch of other things we hope will help to keep this thread running smoothly through the winter. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84360-the-model-thread-survival-guide-for-winter-201516-please-read/

 

Also, if you haven't see it yet, we've just opened a winter area for the season:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84359-new-winter-discussion-forum/

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble mean looks supportive of some pressure rises towards Greenland. The spreads suggest some solutions with high pressure centred further north and troughing to the east of the UK.

 

The short ECM ensembles have the operational run as one of the mildest solutions towards days 9 and 10.

[phil nw.]

The ECM ensemble mean looks supportive of some pressure rises towards Greenland. The spreads suggest some solutions with high pressure centred further north and troughing to the east of the UK.

 

The short ECM ensembles have the operational run as one of the mildest solutions towards days 9 and 10.

A glance at the Naef's Ht anomalies Nick it looks as if we will see lower heights over Europe too.

 

We are looking toward the end of week 2 but it's a continuing trend for something colder, supported by the Gef 2m temperature decline later in the month.

 

so more evidence of lower temperatures with those height anomalies indicating a colder pattern after next week.

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly at T240 still showing ridging over the UK thus a WSW airflow and systems tending to travel NE. In the ext period out to T360 the Euro high dissipates and there is weak ridging NE Canada and a weak trough in the Atlantic thus a zonal flow with average temps over the UK. Of course it will get cooler as our temps are way above average at the moment.but I can see no stirring in the woodshed that would portend a cold spell.

Edited November 6, 2015 by knocker

[bobbydog]

The ecm anomaly at T240 still showing ridging over the UK thus a WSW airflow and systems tending to travel NE. In the ext period out to T360 the Euro high dissipates and there is weak ridging NE Canada and a weak trough in the Atlantic thus a zonal flow with average temps over the UK. Of course it will get cooler as our temps are way above average at the moment.but I can see no stirring in the woodshed that would portend a cold spell.

no stirrings? a greenland high is a commonly recurring theme in the models. i would say that could portend a cold spell. do you actually have a woodshed? if so, keep it well stocked. just in case, you never know...

[knocker]

no stirrings? a greenland high is a commonly recurring theme in the models. i would say that could portend a cold spell. do you actually have a woodshed? if so, keep it well stocked. just in case, you never know...

 

It's not there on the ecm to which I referred nor on the NOAA 8-14 which is similar ( I know it's a mean but the ecm T360 isn't). Of course I have but it's not well stocked at the moment. Need room for the xmas dafs.

Edited November 6, 2015 by knocker

[Gael_Force]

It's not there on the ecm to which I referred nor on the NOAA 8-14 which is similar ( I know it's a mean but the ecm T360 isn't). Of course I have but it's not well stocked at the moment. Need room for the xmas dafs.

I thought the dashed red lines were positive height anomalies? If so, is that not positive over a good portion of Greenland.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We can't say anyone is wrong until we get there.  Got to say though there is more and more runs going for pressure rise to NW and chance of something somewhat cooler/colder coming by mid month onwards....BUT I think it will be mainly north as possibly showing on ECM and NOAA anomaly initially until that Euro High gets shoved away for last third.  Again though I think stormy needs to be added, certainly a very different latter half/last third to come if the models have it right.  I think they do....just the detail to resolve for me 

 

 

BFTP

Edited November 6, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST