South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[Kent Blizzard]

Last time I had snow in November was 2010.

...Just a shame this won't be a E or NE'ly feed LOL.... then wasn't it the 2nd lot in December that pushed in from the North? I think the North West got hit first then it pushed down to us

[Captain Shortwave]

There are just hints perhaps that instead of showers we could get something a little more substantial developing during the early hours of Saturday.

UKMO chart for Saturday

We have a secondary low moving south across the low countries, accompanying this should be an occlusion which could bring a more prolonged spell of precipitation down the east coast including a good part of our region. The models starting to agree on this too.

850s start off around -5C but drop a little as this low moves through and a northerly develops (down to -7/8 potentially)

 

GFS snow accumulation

 

Perhaps a dusting for a good part of East Anglia and Kent.

 

Something to watch and this is what I am waiting for in respect to FAX charts.

[Daniel*]

Unexpected snowfalls are the best ones it is not far off coming within range of NMM.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Daniel*

[Kent Blizzard]

Unexpected snowfalls are the best ones it is not far off coming within range of NMM.

Indeed Daniel We only have to remember back to that April event on a Sunday evening, was it 2008?

[steveinsussex]

12Z UPGRADEEEEE!

 

 

LOL!!!

 

Hardly

 

Anyways, Its windier here tonight than it was last night for the named storm!

[JennyJane1]

Morning all , well what a wild night.

 

lost 2 fence panels which allowed our lovely husky to escape, after looking for her for about an hour we unfortunately found her dead on the side of the road.

thanks to the asshole who didn't even have the decency to stop or even call us.

 

Mia (jinge) will be sadly missed, rest in peace my baby x 

I am so sorry for your loss x

[Kent Blizzard]

LOL!!!

 

Hardly

 

Anyways, Its windier here tonight than it was last night for the named storm!

A slight sniff of the white and you have arrived Steve just need Mr Murr now

[Daniel*]

Indeed Daniel We only have to remember back to that April event on a Sunday evening, was it 2008?

Yes, I believe so Kent Blizzard, that was a real wow movement.

I'm sorry to hear about your dog, Mia..

Tim, it must have been quite traumatic to have seen him liveless by the side of the road.

I have viewed latest NMM run and it shows nothing of note but it remains volatile with snow you can never be sure following the disastrous 2 winters gone a good spell of snow for some of us folk... will elevate my spirits.

[clark3r]

I will be happy with air frost this weekend! It's been so mild November so far!

Hoping for a snowfall before Christmas this year!

We are well over due a snow fall, last winter we had nothing more than a dusting of snow which melted by 8am!

The winter before we did not see a flake!

Fell more optimistic this year!

Could do with an North easterly blast for Christmas

[Mark wheeler]

A few flakes of snow mentioned possible on tonight's forecast so that's better than the last 2 winters hooray

[snowray]

I used to think North Easterlies were good for this area, but in I have noticed that on the whole the snow showers remain mainly on East facing coasts and never seem to get very far inland, Kent streamers develop on a NEly though, these can effect East Anglia, Eastern half of Kent and over towards East Sussex sometimes but most of the good stuff heads off into Northern France. ENE or straight Easterlies have proven to be far better, with heavy snow showers moving a long way inland from the East coast and maintaining intensity.

 

Some of us I am sure will get lucky this Saturday, just need a heavy clump of PPN to move in and bingo could get a covering, a few miles up the road and the sun will be shining, very hit and miss affair.

[throwoff]

Perhaps I'm greedy but for my location that 12Z is a solid upgrade!

[loopydreamer]

Perhaps I'm greedy but for my location that 12Z is a solid upgrade!

It will be great to see some snow falling here in medway. I'm currently trying not to get too excited about this possibility though. ^_^

Edited November 18, 2015 by loopydreamer

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Was out in the sticks today for new work..

 

Was a tad windy 

[Daniel*]

I have this snapshot from Frosty.

I'm under the white stuff on that

[loopydreamer]

Knowing our luck we will end up with sleet, or worse icy cold hail/rain

[Dami]

never seen any snow in November ever , but i dare say that record will remain untarnished. 

[Captain Shortwave]

never seen any snow in November ever , but i dare say that record will remain untarnished. 

When I was living in Great Yarmouth we managed a couple of snow showers in November 2012. The second half of November 2010 is of course a stand out for being exceptionally cold with snow in places.

 

The FAX charts show some troughs moving down the north east Friday night into Saturday in association with an area of low pressure centred over NW Germany.

 

 

The BBC also suggesting the risk of snow over this period. Knife edge stuff though.

Edited November 18, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Kent Blizzard]

Literally nail biting stuff, amazing what two lean Autumn/Winter does to one's snow hopes

[tinybill]

Just been looking at the BBC news weather for the week ahead the east could see some snow on saterday

[throwoff]

Pub runs gone a bit mad for 6am onwards on sat

[Daniel*]

Pub runs gone a bit mad for 6am onwards on sat

As long as these keep churning out I'm getting reasonably confident the 'S' word will show itself, fingers crossed.

[Blessed Weather]

Grey start with moderate breeze. 10.8C. Early Saturday morning looking our best bet for some wet snow. Not quite in the range of the NMM 2km model, but the 5km model shows a hatched area (snow). Whatever, I'm just looking forward to the first cold shot of the winter and some air frost. And being a skiing freak I can watch the snow pile up in the Alps.

 

Edited November 19, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[Kent Blizzard]

Grey start with moderate breeze. 10.8C. Early Saturday morning looking our best bet for some wet snow. Not quite in the range of the NMM 2km model, but the 5km model shows a hatched area (snow). Whatever, I'm just looking forward to the first cold shot of the winter and some air frost. And being a skiing freak I can watch the snow pile up in the Alps.

 

NMM Sat 21Nov 06.00.png

They often mean nothing BUT what I'm happy about also is the meto was showing light snow symbol for 6am then rain at 9an and 12:00 but last updated has switched all 3 to sleet, I find this is often a good sign when even the computer data is unsure if rain sleet or snow because with the temps I cannot see it falling as rain.

I'd give this a good 30% chance of coming off, that's quite high compared to some events and although members further West are not getting excited these things can often surprise so don't rule out anything.

Perhaps 2010 has spoilt everyone? these boards would of been busy pre-2010 when these type of events are showing, some of our best snowfalls have not come off a NE/E'ly so don't be put off

Edited November 19, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

The Met Office over the next 24hrs will be interesting, I would be surprised if a yellow warning is not issued, simply because with all the rain Friday then the colder temps Ice will be an issue let alone any snow or sleet.