South East England and East Anglia weather discussion/chat - 15th November 2015 onwards

[Lauren]

I fully expect it downgrade to sleet or just rain as usual.

 

Honestly, winter is so much more enjoyable when you nowcast. I used to get so disappointed when downgrades happened. When you expect it to downgrade, you can only be pleasantly surprised.

[Kent Blizzard]

I fully expect it downgrade to sleet or just rain as usual.

 

Honestly, winter is so much more enjoyable when you nowcast. I used to get so disappointed when downgrades happened. When you expect it to downgrade, you can only be pleasantly surprised.

But luckily Lauren it's still only Autumn

[Kent Blizzard]

Met Office

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Much colder with sleet or snow showers over the weekend, and Saturday feeling raw across Kent with gale force northerly winds. Monday drier after early frost and possible wintry showers.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Nice write up by the meto nice to see the introduction of the S word mentioned and also look at that gale force winds lol.... will be bitter!

[Lauren]

Sounds like snuggles weather by the sound of it!

[Kent Blizzard]

Sounds like snuggles weather by the sound of it!

The only thing I'll have to snuggle is a pint of lager if I can make it to the pub....through the feet of snow lol

Note: Not sure what to make of the Euro4 !!

Edited November 19, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[throwoff]

00Z basically took any hope of us getting hit Saturday away. 

 

The 06 has for reasons I can't completely understand decided Sunday will be snowy in Kent but I wonder if this is it trying to resolve out the data it had rather than actually making an accurate prediction.

 

I will be back at Lunchtime!

[alexisj9]

00Z basically took any hope of us getting hit Saturday away. 

 

The 06 has for reasons I can't completely understand decided Sunday will be snowy in Kent but I wonder if this is it trying to resolve out the data it had rather than actually making an accurate prediction.

 

I will be back at Lunchtime!

It will be up and down until we see what falls on the day.

[Kent Blizzard]

00Z basically took any hope of us getting hit Saturday away. 

 

The 06 has for reasons I can't completely understand decided Sunday will be snowy in Kent but I wonder if this is it trying to resolve out the data it had rather than actually making an accurate prediction.

 

I will be back at Lunchtime!

The next stages of the Euro4 will be interesting as to see how that lot slips down.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/11/19/basis06/ukuk/prty/15112106_1906.gif

 

 

 

Ignore these Weather Type GFS charts regarding symbols, all we need to worry about is that is shows juice, the rest will take care of itself imo

 

 

 

 

Dew Points

 

 

 

 

Maybe need to get them 850Hpa's lower if we want to see settling snow keeping in mind where it's coming from if i wanted to b be real fussy at this stage

Edited November 19, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Meto Update:-

 

Yellow Warnings now released but not for our Region yet, to be expected though.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447977600&regionName=yh

[Alpine glow]

I've told everybody I have met that it is going to snow in Brighton.  I never learn!  I always think i'm not going to say anything, but I always do.

[alexisj9]

Meto Update:-

 

Yellow Warnings now released but not for our Region yet, to be expected though.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447977600&regionName=yh

Yep it's writen in the wind warning that they may update the snow warning further south but uncertain for now.

[Steve C]

GFS 06Z shows a severe northerly gale blasting down the east coast on Saturday morning.

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

[lassie23]

Shame that the upgrade to the downgrade which was earlier upgraded, is now downgraded. I still expect a further upgrade which will eventually be downgraded again. Raining here and mild 13c. What does rain do to snow from a snow making machine?

[alexisj9]

Shame that the upgrade to the downgrade which was earlier upgraded, is now downgraded. I still expect a further upgrade which will eventually be downgraded again. Raining here and mild 13c. What does rain do to snow from a snow making machine?

Same as it does to actual snow I would imagine. 

[Biggin]

Met Office Warnings Issued For:Greater London

1. Yellow warning of wind From: 2100 on Fri 20 November To: 1500 on Sat 21 November

   Updated 27 minutes ago

   A swathe of gale force north to northwesterly winds, accompanied by a band of rain and snow, will move south across much of central and southern Britain on Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely, with a lower likelihood of 60-70 mph gusts, perhaps most likely in exposed parts of east coastal England. In any one area, the strongest winds will last for only a few hours, clearing last from southeastern areas of England.

   Additionally, some of the snow may settle, this more likely over some of the high ground, for example in north Wales, but there is a possibility of temporary settling snow even at low levels. The worst affected areas may see a few cm but on current evidence, most places will see little if any lying snow. On Saturday morning, ice will be an additional hazard, particularly for higher level routes.Please be aware of the likelihood of some difficult driving conditions and possible travel disruption.

    

   Dont sound too bad.

[Kent Blizzard]

Met Office Warnings Issued For:Greater London

1. Yellow warning of wind From: 2100 on Fri 20 November To: 1500 on Sat 21 November

   Updated 27 minutes ago

   A swathe of gale force north to northwesterly winds, accompanied by a band of rain and snow, will move south across much of central and southern Britain on Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are likely, with a lower likelihood of 60-70 mph gusts, perhaps most likely in exposed parts of east coastal England. In any one area, the strongest winds will last for only a few hours, clearing last from southeastern areas of England.

   Additionally, some of the snow may settle, this more likely over some of the high ground, for example in north Wales, but there is a possibility of temporary settling snow even at low levels. The worst affected areas may see a few cm but on current evidence, most places will see little if any lying snow. On Saturday morning, ice will be an additional hazard, particularly for higher level routes.Please be aware of the likelihood of some difficult driving conditions and possible travel disruption.

    

   Dont sound too bad.

 

 

I'm happy with that at this stage Biggin, plenty of room for upgrades now as we head nearer.

[snowray]

Typical, when the PPN was just clipping the East Coast yesterday, the uppers were showing -8c for our area on Saturday, now that we have got the PPN further West, milder air is being pulled in from the North Sea so only marginal uppers of -4c/-6c, grrrr! 

So cold but not as cold as initially expected and very brief affair too.

[Biggin]

 

 

 uksnowrisk.png

 

 

From the model banter thread

[snowray]

Our advantage is that the rain/snow will be arriving probably around 6am, and dew points look ok at about -1c.

[alexisj9]

Our advantage is that the rain/snow will be arriving probably around 6am, and dew points look ok at about -1c.

I'm not saying yay or nay till I see whats falling from the sky.

[snowray]

 

 

 

 uksnowrisk.png

 

 

From the model banter thread

 

Thats Sunday little band though biggin, and will be very hit and miss for our area. More chance to get something Saturday morning.

Edited November 19, 2015 by snowray

[Kent Blizzard]

I'm not saying yay or nay till I see whats falling from the sky.

Agree and the good thing is it's still Autumn and the fact we have something to focus on is much better than the last two previous years at this stage....we are ahead of the game already   

[chionomaniac]

Chance of a little white surprise Saturday morning in the SE?

 

[TSNWK]

Chance of a little white surprise Saturday morning in the SE?

 

viewimage.png

Chance of a little white surprise Saturday morning in the SE?

 

viewimage.png

When is the next issued published.. That is from 06z this morning, be nice to see the trend of the next one.

[throwoff]

GET IN!

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