Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Actually early Boxing day looks to be best for Aviemore on the 12Z ECM.

Snow more to the west on the previous days.

Yes the 12z is showing some leading edge snow on higher ground in Scotland. A few wintry showers on Christmas Day too.

[Paul]

1 hour ago, Swave Snow said:

Hello Paul, on my way to aviemore for 6 nights as of the 23rd of Dec? What the chances of some of the white stuff on the ground do you think?

 

I'd say there's a shot - snow level looks very close but even if it's a bit wet down in the town, you'll not have far to go to get into the snow. I'm doing my snow dance as we speak - would be nice to have a bit for Xmas!

[Swave Snow]

20 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'd say there's a shot - snow level looks very close but even if it's a bit wet down in the town, you'll not have far to go to get into the snow. I'm doing my snow dance as we speak - would be nice to have a bit for Xmas!

such a shame as you had around a foot or two a few weeks ago but thanks for all the replies.

[Hairy Celt]

15 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'd say there's a shot - snow level looks very close but even if it's a bit wet down in the town, you'll not have far to go to get into the snow. I'm doing my snow dance as we speak - would be nice to have a bit for Xmas!

All round to Paul's (then maybe up to Loch Morlich) Xmas morning for snowball fight then.  I'll bring beers and malts.

[Nouska]

30 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Boxing Day:

This is only what I can see Nouska  

No snow for that time frame - the ECM snow chart I posted is for six hours earlier. IMO do all the ECM charts in six hourly increments.

[Swave Snow]

4 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

All round to Paul's (then maybe up to Loch Morlich) Xmas morning for snowball fight then.  I'll bring beers and malts.

lol good one, im from Edinburgh and i remeber the 80s loads of snowfights

[Hairy Celt]

5 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

lol good one, im from Edinburgh and i remeber the 80s loads of snowfights

Yeah me too.  Too dangerous these days apparently. You could take someone's eye out.

[Liam J]

Some of you may be waking up to a white Christmas... 

 

 

[William Grimsley]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

23rd to 25th looks good it will turning milder on Boxing Day as southwesterlies return extending all the way out till the end of your stay. I wouldn't listen to William...

No need for this, Daniel*! Let's keep it nice, folks!

[snawbaw]

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

No need for this, Daniel*! Let's keep it nice, folks!

I hope you accept my humblest apologies.

As well as you wee folk who have been caught in the crossfire.  

Dan

[skifreak]

Potential for leading edge snow reminds me of a few years ago when I was up in NW Sutherland and late on about 11pm on Christmas Day it started belting down snow, by midnight there was a covering and by 1am boxing day there was several inches lying, but by dawn it had all gone!

Looking to Wed into Thursday, GFS keeps throwing up very severe winds - mean speeds over 100mph at Munro Level through the early hours of Thursday, while the Met Office doesn't seem to be buying it to the same extent, gusts briefly reaching triple figures on the summit of CairnGorm. Thoughts?

Edited December 21, 2015 by skifreak

[Hairy Celt]

Wee folk? You mean, like, elves?

[snawbaw]

Yup, they are for real! Jolly Boy John dressed up as a wee Scottish elf playing bagpipes wi wee tiny feet an a daft wee tourie spraffin aboot the snaw of christmas past, present an future is for real!

Edited December 21, 2015 by snawbaw

[snowidea]

3 hours ago, snawbaw said:

wtf!

My thoughts exactly, thought I'd strayed into the wrong thread. I like the elf though.

 

[NorthernRab]

well that was a heated, or indeed chilling, exchange - depending on whose prediction you give more weight to. 

As as is often the case in the Scottish Highlands in December, cold air is never too far away to the north. Whether we manage to to tap into it is something we'll find out in the next couple of days so there's no need to get too worked up for now. At any rate the hills will be white on the big day

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Wee folk? You mean, like, elves?

Aye, Snawbaw encapsulates it superbly   

I shall now flee...before you come with your tatties & pitchforks.

 

[Hawesy]

18 hours ago, Hawesy said:

Clutching at straws perhaps but if I lived in the far north and particularly the northern isles I'd be keeping an eye in the model output for Christmas Day - there's some very cold air nearby and in the last few days the models have been flirting with it briefly affecting these areas. 6z GFS has -12c 850s into Lerwick on the afternoon of the big day - outside chance of a white Christmas?

Thought I had stumbled into the wrong thread for a moment!

0z GFS this morning has backed off a bit but still has -9c 850s into Lerwick on Boxing Day.

In any case after this morning's mild blip (it's 12c again here) temperatures look more seasonable for the next few days.

[peborant]

Amazingly mild again, 12.8max but now we are going down again 11.3

Total rain 12mm and a gust of 40mph to start the day at 7.30. Would not want to be a commuter in such weather!

EDIT: 11.1

[Swave Snow]

Met office put a yellow alert for rain in the Highlands for Wed and Thursday so no snaw  sadly

[Hairy Celt]

Heavy showers in the west Highlands this morning - several roads resembling rivers.  Hail and sleety stuff appearing above about 200m so there must be something cooler arriving again.

I got this itchy feeling on the backs of my shoulders and asked Ms HC to take a look - apparently I have wings sprouting, which are likely to be Mallard wings, not angel wings unfortunately. Although if I see a halo, I'll keep you updated.

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Swave Snow said:

Met office put a yellow alert for rain in the Highlands for Wed and Thursday so no snaw  sadly

Met Office are showing several locations e.g. Aviemore, Braemar, with 1 or 2C and sleet on Xmas day so wouldn't take much of an adjustment for them to see some falling snow. I'd certainly expect the hills to be white at least (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfjed570x#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1451174400).

High for today was 11.7C at 9am in Dyce. Started off cloudy with a bit of light rain but cleared up pretty quickly to clear skies. Temp currently 9C.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Ravelin

[Swave Snow]

how are things looking now for snaw

[Swave Snow]

Not looking so good now for the snaw

[Swave Snow]

Looks like the mild air is too far north