Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Geordiesnow]

Although there is no easterly, it goes to show what one small detail in the short term affects the longer term and the ECM will definately maintain the promise that something colder could head our way. 

Just hope the morning runs will maintain any blocking and not have the models suddenly follow the UKMO output. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Overall this evening its a case of the PV versus high with the PV firing missiles and the high throwing a few grenades.

Its quite a difficult set up because the NWP has to balance where the energy goes from that PV. This type of situation is one of those domino effect scenarios where if you can topple one the whole lot go.

If the models are underdoing the trough disruption then more of that goes se, this then allows the high further west and able to exert more pressure on the troughing.

NWP does not like this type of set up so I wouldn't assume any of the outputs have the correct solution, theres been quite a few changes over the last few days with the NWP making a big drama just over that shortwave at T72hrs.

Currently I think you'd have to favour the PV being just a bit too strong for the high but we'll see tomorrow if theres any more mileage in the GFS scenario.

The thing is Nick, even when you look at something like the ECM solution you can't help but feel it's a matter of time before we could get in on winter. Even if you take the day 10 chart, that's not a sustainable pattern for mild (like we've seen throughout December) so I'm fascinated as to where we head through January!

[Wivenswold]

Typical. We get some interesting developments on the models just in time for the traditional Christmas runs which, due to lower data collection from flights, throw out some oddball scenarios. It could be a frustrating ride over the next 48-60 hours on here.

[West is Best]

Hello everyone. 

When WiB appears ...

Well we've been watching it for days and this is the first time I've thought, 'yep.' I'd say it's about 60/40 on at the moment. 

Don't you just love these pattern changes? You see them a long way off and the models then spend days prevaricating over whether it's true. Now the controls have bought into it I bet you we'll see some uber Beasts from the East showing up in the next few days. The truth will probably be somewhere between the two: the Flamethrower West and Beast from the East.

Oh, happy Christmas

[steveinsussex]

2 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Typical. We get some interesting developments on the models just in time for the traditional Christmas runs which, due to lower data collection from flights, throw out some oddball scenarios. It could be a frustrating ride over the next 48-60 hours on here.

Not true

[nick sussex]

Wow has anyone seen the fax charts. Astonishing difference between the UKMO raw output and the fax chart for T72hrs. I'm wondering whether theres some mistake with the dates, can this be right?

UKMO raw output T72hrs:

T72hrs fax chart:

 

[radiohead]

5 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Typical. We get some interesting developments on the models just in time for the traditional Christmas runs which, due to lower data collection from flights, throw out some oddball scenarios. It could be a frustrating ride over the next 48-60 hours on here.

I think the vast majority of input data for the models comes from a mix of weather balloons, weather satellites and elements of the previous run of the same model. Xmas shouldnt have any real impact on what it shows 120 odd hours down the line.

[Polar Maritime]

31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You can see the pressure the vortex is under from the 192 uppers chart. A patch of positive uppers near the pole 

Surrounded by frigid uppers either side- leaking further and further S

Yes, What goes up must come down ☺

[nick sussex]

I'm in shock! I've never seen the UKMO make that bigger change at just T72hrs. They must have serious reservations about their operational run which is good news because it stunk!

Of course we can't ignore its raw output unless there was a data issue because for some reason it came out with that output but really this is bizarre.

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wow has anyone seen the fax charts. Astonishing difference between the UKMO raw output and the fax chart for T72hrs. I'm wondering whether theres some mistake with the dates, can this be right?

UKMO raw output T72hrs:

T72hrs fax chart:

 

Good or bad difference nick? As clearly you would think more credence to the fax chart.

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, TSNWK said:

Good or bad difference nick? As clearly you would think more credence to the fax chart.

Clearly good for cold lovers. Where the fax chart has the H1027 to the North of the UK the model run has low pressure.

The fax 96 will be interesting 

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Good or bad difference nick? As clearly you would think more credence to the fax chart.

The UKMO raw output wasn't upto much in terms of cold potential, it was better than this mornings run but still pretty wretched compared to the GFS.

The change in the fax chart means that theres no way they can go with their raw output on the T96hrs and T120hrs fax charts, synoptically its impossible to go from that T72hrs chart back to the raw output later on.

Unless they've made some error or the forecaster was trying to be nice to us then they think their raw output is an outlier.

Oh and yes the fax chart is miles better than the raw output!

[radiohead]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm in shock! I've never seen the UKMO make that bigger change at just T72hrs. They must have serious reservations about their operational run which is good news because it stunk!

Of course we can't ignore its raw output unless there was a data issue because for some reason it came out with that output but really this is bizarre.

It looks like they based the FAX on the JMA more than any of the other models to my eyes.

[Cloud 10]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm in shock! I've never seen the UKMO make that bigger change at just T72hrs. They must have serious reservations about their operational run which is good news because it stunk!

Of course we can't ignore its raw output unless there was a data issue because for some reason it came out with that output but really this is bizarre.

 

Must be a mistake surely,unless the fax chart man has started early on the mulled wine.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Must be a mistake surely,unless the fax chart man has started early on the mulled wine.

I've checked on Wetterzentrale on the full evolution which has the 24, 36, 48 etc hrs onwards faxes to T72hrs. It takes the shortwave ne and clears it eastwards.

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO raw output wasn't upto much in terms of cold potential, it was better than this mornings run but still pretty wretched compared to the GFS.

The change in the fax chart means that theres no way they can go with their raw output on the T96hrs and T120hrs fax charts, synoptically its impossible to go from that T72hrs chart back to the raw output later on.

Unless they've made some error or the forecaster was trying to be nice to us then they think their raw output is an outlier.

Oh and yes the fax chart is miles better than the raw output!

Just heard on the grape vine that Paul Hudson kidnapped the on duty forecaster (Darren Bett) and went on to produce the 72hr fax chart.

[cold snap]

With the Fax being so different to the Ukmo model run one Would think that a bigger Scandinavia high may be on the cards .

However as usual any impact here might or might not be felt 

[blizzard81]

I just wish the ecm debilt ensembles would update. They haven't updated for a couple of days now!

[cold snap]

Need Ian or anybody from met to clarify if Ukmo fax is wrong please ?

[Cloud 10]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I've checked on Wetterzentrale on the full evolution which has the 24, 36, 48 etc hrs onwards faxes to T72hrs. It takes the shortwave ne and clears it eastwards.

 

Hmmmmm...

 

GEFS member 7 bears some resemblance to that fax chart at 72 hrs...

 

 

.....and look where it leads to later in the run.

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Not sure why this evenings updated FAX has come as a surprise, it almost mirrors the FAX issued early this morning for Sunday. 

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Hmmmmm...

 

GEFS member 7 bears some resemblance to that fax chart at 72 hrs...

 

 

.....and look where it leads to later in the run.

 

 

 

Haha, great spot.

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I just wish the ecm debilt ensembles would update. They haven't updated for a couple of days now!

Try these links the one below updates around  9 am and 9 pm UK time. Its the longer range one:

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

This one is the short De Bilt ensembles which updates evenings around 8.35 UK time.

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png        

Here also the ECM postage stamps which go upto T120hrs, this certainly worth a look tonight to see what they do with the infamous shortwave:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa%21168%21pop%21od%21enfo%21enplot%212009112700%21%21

These ones update around 8.20pm UK time.

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Try these links the one below updates around 10 am and 10 pm. Its the longer range one:

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

This one is the short De Bilt ensembles which updates evenings around 8.35 UK time.

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png          

Here also the ECM postage stamps which go upto T120hrs, this certainly worth a look tonight to see what they do with the infamous shortwave:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa%21168%21pop%21od%21enfo%21enplot%212009112700%21%21

These ones update around 8.20pm UK time.

 

That's fantastic Nick, many thanks for posting those. Much appreciated.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

That's fantastic Nick, many thanks for posting those. Much appreciated.

You're welcome.

Certainly the postage stamps should give us an idea of what that shortwave might do. They used to go upto T168hrs but ECM got stingy!