Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[bobbydog]

50 minutes ago, MPG said:

Looks interesting in FI but the majority of January has been written off by our friendly biologist posting output from the Glosea model. Makes things hard to dicuss knowing that our words could be for nothing. 

the Glosea is not the 'God of weather' its a seasonal forecast model which is updated daily due to the fact that input changes daily. it is, therefore,  subject to change like any other model.

nothing personal intended in the removed comment.

Edited January 1, 2016 by bobbydog
removed comment possibly made in error

[Essex winter]

We have seem dramatic turnarounds in weather models previously & we will do again.all to play for.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Essex winter said:

We have seem dramatic turnarounds in weather models previously & we will do again.all to play for.

One would hope that with the multi millions being poured into NWP, the turnarounds will become less dramatic

 

[SLEETY]

At least the Scottish Highlands look like getting much snow soon,after what fergie said about each rainfall totals up there,which I presume will fall as snow above about 2000 ft,time to head up there for the snow

[Spah1]

15 minutes ago, Essex winter said:

We have seem dramatic turnarounds in weather models previously & we will do again.all to play for.

Can you give us all an example pls.

[Cheese Rice]

Interesting 18z yes but no where near conclusive enough for low level snowfall in the south. 

The met office 6-15th Jan forecast is for broadly average temperatures and I agree with that. 

A north south divide looks to be the form horse, southerly tracking lows bringing the risk of snowfall across high ground of Northern England/Scotland. The 850 profiles suggesting transient snowfall to lower levels. Further south cool and wet with average temperatures, perhaps above average in the far south depending on the trajectory of the lows. 

We would need increased height rises to the north and for the pattern to push a couple 100 miles south to really see colder conditions.

After the next two weeks things potentially get interesting with hints of a more prominent signal for height rises to our North West. But that's two weeks away, for now a cool wet period looks likely, its the little nuisances such as the southerly extent of the track of each low which could prove interesting if you live on high ground in N.Emgland/ Scotland  

 

[phil nw.]

Some posts have been removed or edited.

Please use the banter thread if you want to continue with general chat. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84481-winters-moans-ramps-chat-and-banter/

Back to model discussions please now.Thanks.

[Ali1977]

Yep, even if we see some eye candy in FI it looks like the METO are fairly confident that no prolonged cold is heading out way...Lets hope Feb is really cold, as this winter so far has been even worse than the last 2.

[Essex winter]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Can you give us all an example pls.

Just stating that we   have seen charts flip both ways overnight so no reason why they would not again.mIld to cold or vise versa.

[Mucka]

GFS Ensembles Central Southern England

We can see that the period 8th to 11th is somewhat colder/cooler (mean) than the 00z set (on right for comparison)

Edited January 1, 2016 by Mucka

[Rocheydub]

Eyes down now for the ECM. The GFS hinting at Greeny heights. If there's any chance of them, the ECM will show them as traditionally it kind of over blows or over states HL blocks (not phrased well, but you get my drift), so you'd imagine it will show up on the 12z rolling now...

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Eyes down now for the ECM. The GFS hinting at Greeny heights. If there's any chance of them, the ECM will show them as traditionally it kind of over blows or over states HL blocks (not phrased well, but you get my drift), so you'd imagine it will show up on the 12z rolling now...

It may be worth noting, in reference to my other post about importance of maintaining weak high pressure to our North,, that the Greenland height rises on the GFS do not arrive via the traditional method of Atlantic ridge and is aided by weak high pressure retrogressing from Scandi and linking with Alaskan/Arctic ridge.

Edited January 1, 2016 by Mucka

[West is Best]

33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, even if we see some eye candy in FI it looks like the METO are fairly confident that no prolonged cold is heading out way...Lets hope Feb is really cold, as this winter so far has been even worse than the last 2.

Much as I respect Fergie hugely he isn't the METO. As a friend of mine who works there said to me last winter, 'Ian's a lot more free to say things than the rest of us who work inside it.'

Anyway, the NW model discussion is a thread mostly made up of amateurs and it would be very sad if anyone felt they couldn't comment on the models based on, well, the models. Having been on this place for over a decade I've seen experts come and experts go. One of the great things about UK weather is it that it continues to confound expectations and prove frequently unforecastable at even medium range.

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by West is Best

[A.J]

the great news for us avid model output watchers is that not even the met office or their official/unofficial representatives on netweather can accurately predict the UK weather forecasts post T120 or even earlier for that matter, it's simply a matter of our understanding or more pertinently, our lack of understanding of the laws of physics that will dictate that accurate seasonal forecasting will be beyond the scope of even the powerful supercomputers for generations to come...

....in the meantime, enjoy the rollercoaster rides that computer generated models give us on a daily basis, and a very happy new year 2016 

[Polar Maritime]

A few more posts have again been hidden. There are threads already open for;

Winter 2015: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84402-winter-201516/?page=12#comment-3312262

Moan/Ramp: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84481-winters-moans-ramps-chat-and-banter/?page=79#comment-3312277

METO: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/?page=36#comment-3312061

Let's keep discussion in here to what the Model Outputs are showing as Phil polity asked a few posts back, As it keeps the thread running smoothly. Please continue with discussion, And i hope all members have enjoyed there N/Year celebrations. 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

ECM not as good as UKMO or GFS for Northern blocking at 120 which is a bit of a let down, maybe tomorrow?

It is a tad better than yesterday's 12z for NH profile at least.

 

Also note how the low heights (purple blob) over Scandi are less pronounced the better the blocking to our N/NE. This is a result of them making less of the shortwave activity moving W under the block earlier.

Edited January 1, 2016 by Mucka

[booferking]

Yea but it looks like it will get better with that high trying to force itself into Greenland from the North of canada.

 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea but it looks like it will get better with that high trying to force itself into Greenland from the North of canada.

 

Just a whiff of blue over Greenland from the legacy of Scandi high but better Arctic high. Maybe tomorrow we can get the perfect link up and decent FI?

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Mucka

[chionomaniac]

On 12/31/2015 at 3:06 PM, Steve Murr said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

Take it or leave it
S

So Steve, I know that you put a lot of effort into this post, but that 24 hours is almost up, and from the moment that you posted your thoughts the reverse signal of the pattern change that you suggested has pretty much occurred. I love the fact that you justify your explanation and I, like you, would love to see a cold and snowy easterly, but, if ever there was a case of someone putting forward a case that they want to see rather than using all the models at their disposal to actual create a reasonable forecast of what is most likely to occur, then this is it.

So, being the model thread, I would like to take this opportunity to say that it may be rather foolish to bin all the GFS and ECM suites and that those who try and base long wave teleconnective patterns aren't wasting their time. Instead we should keep on analysing all the model runs, use the ensembles and trends, MJO forecasts that have been so expensively assembled. Perhaps, the reason that the GSM's weren't suggesting a cold easterly was because it isn't going to happen. It is blatantly obvious that the WAA into the Arctic has set up a block too far away for an easterly to make it. The Scandi block was never really there - the WAA was far too successful in reaching deeper into the Arctic and that is where the block formed (Kara Sea) and this ultimately is the downfall of any real easterly before it has even started. Our best hope may be that we can get a back end northerly but even this is looking less likely every run, as any Greenland block is being produced from Arctic heights pushing our way, rather than a fresh bout of WAA from the Atlantic sector.

 

I am not saying that the models will be right all of the time, but perhaps this was one time when the block was too far away to ever give us the realistic chance of a freezing easterly. More a case of warm winter rain being replaced by a slightly colder variety.

[Dunstable Snow]

Just had a quick look at the 12z GFS and as others have alluded to it is quite an interesting run. Not great for the south but certainly some interest from the North Midlands northwards I would suggest. I remain encouraged by attempt to build heights at high latitudes near Greenland ( I have attached NH view to demonstrate ( appreciate its FI and 10 days away but a characteristic of much of the GFS 12z output for a period of the run.

The pattern is just a little bit too far north. If  buts and maybe's but 200/300 miles further south would make a significant difference to the outcome for the whole of our little island.

[Mucka]

ECM day 10.

 

 

Can we dare imagine a chart tomorrow where decent residual Scandi heights link up with arctic heights over Greenland with an Atlantic ridge reaching out to reinforce?

The search for cold continues, and why not?

Edited January 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[nick sussex]

Good and bad news from the ECM.

Negative AO

Euro high flattened into submission

Temps returning to more seasonal average

Signs of some southern stream flow interacting with northern arm over the USA at T240hrs, the NCEP outlook for January in their state forecasts a few days back suggested possibilities for nor'easter type lows over the eastern USA, these generally run up the eastern seaboard, if they're amplified this promotes WAA towards Greenland.

Bad news

The more interesting part of the ECM comes at day ten!

[blizzard81]

10 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Weren't there times in previous runs where it had all those places being above average for the week 4th-10th January as well?

Yes, absolutely. Just looking at ecm 12z and just look at that brutal cold over Greenland just begging to come our way  Anyway, feet back on ground. My summary after today's output - It's going to get quite a bit colder than what we have become akin to  

Edited January 1, 2016 by blizzard81

[bobbydog]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good and bad news from the ECM.

Negative AO

Euro high flattened into submission

Temps returning to more seasonal average

Signs of some southern stream flow interacting with northern arm over the USA at T240hrs, the NCEP outlook for January in their state forecasts a few days back suggested possibilities for nor'easter type lows over the eastern USA, these generally run up the eastern seaboard, if they're amplified this promotes WAA towards Greenland.

Bad news

The more interesting part of the ECM comes at day ten!

hi nick, the evolution is not unlike the GFS. the ECM however, makes less of the LP system in the atlantic at t240 and virtually cuts it off. it will be interesting to see where it goes with that - if it sticks with the same theme...

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good and bad news from the ECM.

Negative AO

Euro high flattened into submission

Temps returning to more seasonal average

Signs of some southern stream flow interacting with northern arm over the USA at T240hrs, the NCEP outlook for January in their state forecasts a few days back suggested possibilities for nor'easter type lows over the eastern USA, these generally run up the eastern seaboard, if they're amplified this promotes WAA towards Greenland.

Bad news

The more interesting part of the ECM comes at day ten!

I am more confident about the ecm day 10 because it is very similar to the gfs at the same time scale.