South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[Mark Neal.]

The second chart is a peach for here  If only i could bank it aha. 

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, Mark N said:

The second chart is a peach for here  If only i could bank it aha. 

Yeah I know right, if only! The ppn will be completely different on the day, I'm just hoping we stay on the right side of marginal. It's looking good at the moment, just no downgrades please!

If I read "snow north of M5 only" next week, I think I might actually bang my head against a wall.

[Mark Neal.]

17 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Yeah I know right, if only! The ppn will be completely different on the day, I'm just hoping we stay on the right side of marginal. It's looking good at the moment, just no downgrades please!

If I read "snow north of M5 only" next week, I think I might actually bang my head against a wall.

Haha. Will be plenty of chopping and changing over next few days definately. if it is a m4 corridor event again, always good hear as we are 28 miles North of it lol 

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Haha. Will be plenty of chopping and changing over next few days definately. if it is a m4 corridor event again, always good hear as we are 28 miles North of it lol 

I think there's a channel between the M4 and M40 , where I live, which is totally unremarkable apart from cold

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

I think there's a channel between the M4 and M40 , where I live, which is totally unremarkable apart from cold

I would certainly want North of M4 rather than M40, would make it more marginal here. Anyway looks like we could even see snow here in Oxon, though mix of Sleet/Rain/Snow and back edge snow likely end of week perhaps. 

[twiglet98]

Heading to north Exmoor coast for the weekend with a large family party, avoiding the steep A39, having travelled it once before, in summer 20 years ago, just hope the A361 stays clear for us all to get home!, Wouldn't mind a south-west snowfest if we had a week off to enjoy it!

[Mark Neal.]

3 minutes ago, twiglet98 said:

Heading to north Exmoor coast for the weekend with a large family party, avoiding the steep A39, having travelled it once before, in summer 20 years ago, just hope the A361 stays clear for us all to get home!, Wouldn't mind a south-west snowfest if we had a week off to enjoy it!

I have the following week booked off work, hoping i have some snowcover here.

[Stormyking]

Thunderstorm on the Isle of Wight right now! With hail, thunder quite loud, so far about 9/10 strikes, buzzing!!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Thunderstorm on the Isle of Wight right now! With hail, thunder quite loud, so far about 9/10 strikes, buzzing!!!

So my eyes may not have been kidding me. Very distant flashes observed to the far South from all the way in Huntingdon, Cambs!! Enjoy it before the potential snow! 

[Stormyking]

Wow last 2 lots of lightning was amazig, an anvil crawler followed by a multistrikes going right across Sandown Bay, and now another crawler!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Omg yep saw that from what must be 120 miles away!! Wow :O

[Stormyking]

Has all moved off to our east and is dying pretty quick, not bad for January at all!

21 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Omg yep saw that from what must be 120 miles away!! Wow :O

Where abouts did you manage to see it from?

[Stormyking]

This is just a screengrab so far, my friend has gave me permission to share, there will be more to come photos!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Has all moved off to our east and is dying pretty quick, not bad for January at all!

Where abouts did you manage to see it from?

Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire! 

[Stormyking]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire! 

They were very bright tonight, not surprise you could see some of the flashes!

[knocker]

Morning all

Cloudy with a few heavy showers during the night, Temp 5.6C and a light breeze from WSW. The 00z fax chart shows a complex area of low pressure.

Regarding the coming week we know the change to colder weather has been nailed on for some time but the situation remains complex and the detail elusive and has still not been completely resolved so best keep this in mind.

Having said that this is the GFS take this morning on Thursday which looked a possible snow event yesterday. By 00z Thursday it has the low 994mb west of Scotland and it proceeds to to move it east across Scotland and by 18z it is east of Thurso. At the same time it develops a small low in the southern North Sea.Thus most of the snowfall falls in Scotland and the high ground in the north of England. A glance at the latest fax will illustrate how complicated this is.

In the same time frame the ecm is tracking the low from N. Ireland SE across England to East Anglia with light snow along it's track. See what I mean.

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

As has already been noted the detail for the latter part of the week is still up in the air and yet to be resolved as of course is the subsequent evolution. All I will say at this stage is that the mean anomalies have been consistently pushing height rises over or adjacent to the UK. This continues to be the case with both the GFS and ecm. As can be seen on Tuesday they both have ridging over the UK with the trough in eastern Europe. This scenario continues into the ext period, particularly with the ecm so if this turns out anywhere near the money it would portend a few days of HP influence giving dry cold conditions to most with temps warming towards the end of the period. That's the theory anyway.

Edited January 10, 2016 by knocker

[lettice]

A very heavy hail shower for a good 15 mins here at 11.45, size of peas, white everywehre for a good 10 mins, then back to rain, but some blue skies breaking out.

Temp is only 6.95c with a low of 6c during that shower, after 9-11c yesterday, starting dropping around 4am this mowning. Looks like the colder week has started.
Been a rainy week, Mon 6.5 mm, Tue 7 mm, Wed 0.4 mm, Thur 18.9 mm, Fri 5.9 mm, Sat 14.8 mm and 5.8 mm today.
78.8mm so far for Jan, rainiest day 16.4mm on Jan 3rd.

 

 

 

[ARTDEMOLE]

Broken cloud allowing hazy sunshine.   8.2c. Humidity only 77%rh. pressure 1000.7hpa.  Was nice out on the patio when busy... 

[knocker]

This morning's GFs is now looking at something similar to last night's ecm for Thursday but with little snow south of the line N. Wales to the Wash. Earlier caveats regarding this remain.

[Mapantz]

7.9mm of rain from yesterdays showers.
Currently sunny spells, but a fair few Cumulus' popping up now

Temp:  10.3°C - Hum:  57% - Bar:  984.99hPa - Rain: 1.2mm - Wind:  SW/WSW @ 10mph

Yellow rain warnings extended West for some Southern counties, this is for tonight in to tomorrow morning. There could  be some large localised totals for some, with the odd thunderstorm thrown in for good measure.

Turned very dark here, a heavy shower & gusty winds.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mapantz
Change of weather in a matter of moments.

[knocker]

The showers seem to be dying out here. Now quite pleasant with a fair bit of blue sky with some Ci and Cu.

[Dorsetbred]

Just in the throws of a rain & sleet shower. OK that's winter, phew, all that MOD stuff for that. Can we move on now.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Well what a beautiful morning we've had !

[Bristawl Si]

Cold rain today. Temp at 5c.

More cold rain to come later in week.

Marginal rain/snow situs dont float my boat.

No deep cold showing in future(next 2 weeks) either.

Another thoroughly cr@p winter. Roll on early warm Spring.