Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[warrenb]

GEM going with Aprege

[mushymanrob]

not being funny or owt, but imho theres no snow out of this chart , those uppers are far too high away from the highest ground. predicted temps for sunday (bbc) dont suggest an inversion either...


 

[northwestsnow]

I like that french model

On a serious note GFS has again moved in the 'reliable' timeframe - something more of trough disruption.

Still not confident of how sun/mon/tue will pan out, at the 11th hour!!!

[karlos1983]

so the GFS takes us from a PV in total tatters to complete control again within 4 days

Edited January 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[Kieran]

Great GFS 12z update in my neck of the woods...

 

Covering of snow on Sunday Morning 

 

Then something more significant on Monday...

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not being funny or owt, but imho theres no snow out of this chart , those uppers are far too high away from the highest ground. predicted temps for sunday (bbc) dont suggest an inversion either...


 

Apart from the fact that snow is projected. You don't need cold uppers in a breakdown event that's the point of a breakdown event.

[swilliam]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

not being funny or owt, but imho theres no snow out of this chart , those uppers are far too high away from the highest ground. predicted temps for sunday (bbc) dont suggest an inversion either...


 

Temps from GFS,

More importantly Dewpoint below zero

 

Lost of other factors as well  so should be some snow about but a bit marginal in places - without going into  discussion and off topic about predicted temps on BBC TV charts

[seabreeze86]

The 12z GEM is turning into a great run. Easterly incoming?

[Man With Beard]

The consistent aspect of the UKMO is recent days is its refusal to build heights further north than Iberia

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

UKMO at D6: 

Dont even know what to make of that chart!! Looks cold, not sure if it though!!!

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

The 12z GEM is turning into a great run. Easterly incoming?

mega freeze up incoming if gem will verify lol

Edited January 15, 2016 by SLEETY

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not being funny or owt, but imho theres no snow out of this chart , those uppers are far too high away from the highest ground. predicted temps for sunday (bbc) dont suggest an inversion either...


 

Front comes through on Monday though? Agree that it doesn't look like a grand battleground event, but the Midlands should see some snow according to the Arpege high res:

 

 

Edit: Cold block gets blasted away on the GFS as per earlier runs, but there's enough to suggest there could be a few more interesting perturbs among the GEFS later.

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Yarmy

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hardly without interest is it??

When you see a jet profile like that the door is always open to possibilities...

 

[Hammer]

What is point of posters just posting a chart, with no comments. 

[cowdog]

20 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Loving the Arpege run this afternoon. Total trough disruption and building Icelandic high.

 

Saying that, looking at the differences between this set of runs and the previous for all models, anything could happen, the Meto 120 compared to the previous 144 is completely different.

The Arpege isn't that different than its 6z run if anything its very similar to its 0z run, key is it just shifts everything 200 miles further west compared to the 6z, which has the knock on effect of most of the country keeping the cold. Would mean also no snow for the North, with it being a very southern event on Monday if it did play out as such.

 

It really isn't having the mild coming in at full force that is for sure.

Edited January 15, 2016 by cowdog

[igloo]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

well the GEM  is not to bad bad at 120h could well be a scandi HP trying to form with a undercut just shows you how much uncertainty there is on every model at moment at only 120h

[Southender]

9 minutes ago, cowdog said:

The Arpege isn't that different than its 6z run if anything its very similar to its 0z run, key is it just shifts everything 200 miles further west compared to the 6z, which has the knock on effect of most of the country keeping the cold. Would mean also no snow for the North, with it being a very southern event on Monday if it did play out as such.

I personally think any precip (rain or snow) wont be getting any further than a line from around S.Ireland/S.Wales down to Isle of Wight at best. Any of us further N & E of that can forget it, we will be left with the dregs as it breaks up and loses oomph. Seems to be common in these types of setup. I maybe mistaken, but I cannot remember of too many corrections East as we approach T+0 in similar setups?

Edited January 15, 2016 by Southender

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Hammer said:

What is point of posters just posting a chart, with no comments. 

I think that is the question? The jet is well south of the UK, plenty of possibilities, but difficult to be sure of quite what the surface conditions would be. Better than GFS for sure, but an unexpected chart and not sure that would be replicated, so basically draw your own conclusions!

The GFS at the same time!    UKMO 

[Day 10]

Lol so many different options on the table, this model madness is just crazy, gripping stuff. ECM up next with no doubt another take on things. As long as the end game is cold and lots of snow from stalling fronts left right and centre most will be happy

[A.J]

4 minutes ago, Hammer said:

What is point of posters just posting a chart, with no comments. 

totally agree..........and so, just to add, given the fact that there are no doubt hundreds of people currently viewing the thread with a broad spectrum of levels of knowledge, I would politely ask all posters, when posting charts, please add an explanatory note or two....thanks

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Temps from GFS,

More importantly Dewpoint below zero

 

Lost of other factors as well  so should be some snow about but a bit marginal in places - without going into  discussion and off topic about predicted temps on BBC TV charts

yep i take your point about dew points

and im possibly being guilty here of 'imby - ism' as locally we dont get much snow , if any, off a westerly incursion.  (assuming these charts verify - which is not a cert) id expect some light, wet, slushy stuff that half covers some surfaces before melting - at the very worst.  anyway - we will see what subsequent models suggest.

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, Southender said:

I personally think any precip (rain or snow) wont be getting any further than a line from around S.Ireland/S.Wales down to Isle of Wight at best. Any of us further N & E of that can forget it, we will be left with the dregs. Seems to be common in these types of setup. I maybe mistaken, but I cannot remember of too many corrections East as we approach T+0 in similar setups?

Yep, id agree with that. If it reaches Kent / Essex / EA it will be a mostly rain event! With these they either drop snow west of the line you indicate or if they make it to the east coast its pretty much rain all the way!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Could somone please explain would it be cold UKMO chart at 144?

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Could somone please explain would it be cold UKMO chart at 144?

It won't be mild, but I doubt it would be cold enough for most for snow or wintery precip. It would be on the cold side of normal.

 

EDIT: It wouldn't take much of an adjustment for it to be a cold chart. A correction south by a couple hundred miles and it would be game on!

Edited January 15, 2016 by Rocheydub

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Could somone please explain would it be cold UKMO chart at 144?

In Scotland -,yes

elsewhere chilly rain