Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Windblade]

Yes, I have seen on some documentaries massive bolts that are many times brighter and wider than normal bolts right next to them - so big in fact they absolutely dwarf the normal CG bolts.. I believe this is a true occurrence but not much is known about it at this point in time and it is difficult to document as its very unpredictable. Kind of like how scientists never thought sprites existed until a short while ago. I think as time goes on more will be understood about these superbolts and hopefully more gets documented on them.

Here we go. At 2:11 that is imo a superbolt.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Windblade

[Chris.R]

 18.6°C. This W'ly wind is  Messing things up. 

[Tempest]

Here in lochmaben it is: 18 degrees / stratus clouds / humidity 76 / dew point 14 / pressure 1025.7

can anyone please tell me what the chance is of a thunderstorm here. It actually feels warmer than 18 degrees and pretty muggy.

i forever live in hope of some flashes and bangs. 

 

 

 

[Speedway Slider]

15 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Yes, I have seen on some documentary massive bolts that are many times brighter and wider than normal bolts right next to them - so big in fact they absolutely dwarf the normal CG bolts.. I believe this is a true occurrence but not much is known about it at this point in time and it is difficult to document as its very unpredictable. Kind of like how scientists never thought sprites existed until a short while ago. I think as time goes on more will be understood about these superbolts and hopefully more gets documented on them.

Here we go. At 2:11 that is imo a superbolt.

Hi, thank you for your informative reply, I guess it's one of those things that is very difficult to study/quantify with it being oh so unpredictable, and fast....

I watched a programme once about deliberately triggering lightning with a solid fuel rocket and copper wired tail, it was very interesting... However, man-made lightning does not have natures unpredictability... Fascinating subject, but I am terrified, and paranoid about thunder/lightning, it's almost if not a full blown phobia of mine, but like Gordon Webb, except I am fascinated, drawn to it, yet terrified at the same time...

I do some strange things when a storm approaches me, depending where I am.. I also get stomach issues, and other symptoms when a storm is miles and miles away, if it's heading my way....

[Darren Bown]

Feels much more humid and the air is incredibly still today, none of that nagging cool wind that we had yesterday yet. Even so, still managed to get a few bright lightning flashes from the shower to our east around 10:30pm.

 

After a grey and cloudy start, the sun is out. I'm expecting some big single cell storms around here today. Cumulus clouds already bubbling up around.

 

temp 22c, and climbing.

[Windblade]

13 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Hi, thank you for your informative reply, I guess it's one of those things that is very difficult to study/quantify with it being oh so unpredictable, and fast....

I watched a programme once about deliberately triggering lightning with a solid fuel rocket and copper wired tail, it was very interesting... However, man-made lightning does not have natures unpredictability... Fascinating subject, but I am terrified, and paranoid about thunder/lightning, it's almost if not a full blown phobia of mine, but like Gordon Webb, except I am fascinated, drawn to it, yet terrified at the same time...

I do some strange things when a storm approaches me, depending where I am.. I also get stomach issues, and other symptoms when a storm is miles and miles away, if it's heading my way....

You're welcome friend. Yes, its certainly fascinating. Perhaps with time superbolts will be more understood. Even at this stage they still don't know exactly why certain storms spawn tornados and others don't or why certain tornados get really powerful compared to others for example. By their nature storms are very unpredictable and there is so much we don't know but we are learning more and more about them every day, so hopefully one day these things will be better documented and more knowledge gained of these events.

I understand about your storm fears. When I was younger I used to be absolutely petrified of storms and thunder and lightning. However, as I grew older and entered my teens that fear turned to fascination and I have been a storm addict ever since.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Windblade

[Darren Bown]

9 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Hi, thank you for your informative reply, I guess it's one of those things that is very difficult to study/quantify with it being oh so unpredictable, and fast....

I watched a programme once about deliberately triggering lightning with a solid fuel rocket and copper wired tail, it was very interesting... However, man-made lightning does not have natures unpredictability... Fascinating subject, but I am terrified, and paranoid about thunder/lightning, it's almost if not a full blown phobia of mine, but like Gordon Webb, except I am fascinated, drawn to it, yet terrified at the same time...

I do some strange things when a storm approaches me, depending where I am.. I also get stomach issues, and other symptoms when a storm is miles and miles away, if it's heading my way....

 

33 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Yes, I have seen on some documentaries massive bolts that are many times brighter and wider than normal bolts right next to them - so big in fact they absolutely dwarf the normal CG bolts.. I believe this is a true occurrence but not much is known about it at this point in time and it is difficult to document as its very unpredictable. Kind of like how scientists never thought sprites existed until a short while ago. I think as time goes on more will be understood about these superbolts and hopefully more gets documented on them.

Here we go. At 2:11 that is imo a superbolt.

I would have thought the 'superbolt' is just the main discharge bolt that actually connects, the rest are feeders that are looking for a way to the ground or cloud. Once the main bolt connects, all the discharge goes through that bolt, including the feeders, so it appears brighter.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm in Croydon today and looks like most models generally agree that this area is a sweet spot (amongst others) with storms moving in a south-westerly direction.

21 degrees here when I last looked and sure feels like it too. Diurnal heating driving storm development this afternoon and the sun's out so things are looking good here.

Doubt it'll be a patch on the MK cell yesterday. We also got a few close rumbles last night after midnight but I had storm fatigue from the afternoon's activities so wasn't watching for the lightning but it was close cod I could see the flashes even with the blinds drawn.

[Windblade]

8 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

 

I would have thought the 'superbolt' is just the main discharge bolt that actually connects, the rest are feeders that are looking for a way to the ground or cloud. Once the main bolt connects, all the discharge goes through that bolt, including the feeders, so it appears brighter.

Normally I'd agree, and your explanation does make sense, but I've seen several videos, pictures and read various reports of cases where other bolts do reach the ground, but for some unknown reason sometimes a much more powerful, brighter and more intense bolt occurs alongside the regular bolts. These are "superbolts" imo. Its certainly fascinating discussing it and finding out more about this rare occurance!

Edited June 8, 2016 by Windblade

[NUT]

Looks like it's started to fire off again. SW Scotland/Northern England

[Gordon Webb]

what direction are the the possible showers/storms going to move as I've seen comflicting opinions

Edited June 8, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[StormChaseUK]

Some rapid convection going up to the North of here, must be some of the showers forming over N Wales.

Much better day visibility wise, lot more sunshine too.

[StormChaseUK]

8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

what direction are the the possible showers/storms going to move as I've seen comflicting opinions

Moving SE looking at the radar, although they are not moving much just forming. very little wind.

[Windblade]

Some cumulus starting to appear in london now.

[Nick F]

41 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Yes, I have seen on some documentaries massive bolts that are many times brighter and wider than normal bolts right next to them - so big in fact they absolutely dwarf the normal CG bolts.. I believe this is a true occurrence but not much is known about it at this point in time and it is difficult to document as its very unpredictable. Kind of like how scientists never thought sprites existed until a short while ago. I think as time goes on more will be understood about these superbolts and hopefully more gets documented on them.

Here we go. At 2:11 that is imo a superbolt.

Not sure if this has been touched on with regards to this subject, but supposedly more vivid and loud cig lightning bolts maybe +ve lightning strikes. It only makes up 5% of all strikes, but they are more dangerous than -ve CGs as they originate from the cirrus anvil rather than the base of the storm, and have to build up a much greater charge to bridge the greater distance to the ground. More on this here from the US NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/lightning/positive.html

interestingly the article mentions that +ve CGs are the dominant type of CG in winter storms and when storms are dissipating.

Another point to note, though not from the article, is that CG lightning can be more prevalent or frequent in elevated or high based storms, as electrical charge tends to dissipate to the ground more easily through the cloud and rain without a lightning strike with surface based storms, whereas drier air beneath an elevated storm tends to allow the charge to build up more easily to result in a CG strike to from cloud to ground. 

[William Grimsley]

Here's my analysis over the coming few days for this area:

Today: I'm expecting showers to develop on a convergence zone east of here most likely over Dorset this afternoon which will gradually move westward this evening, timing and intensity of these showers is unknown and certainly not expecting much lightning activity from these showers if at all, these should then fade into the evening.

Friday: Interesting possibility of elevated thunderstorms early and later on this day, GFS brings an area of heavy and thundery rain up into East Devon and Dorset ahead of the weather front coming in from the west. I'd expect as the cold front hits this warm and humid air that thunderstorms will fire off especially east of here and inland. NMM isn't on board with this however shows hints of elevated thunderstorms moving up from the SW later on in the evening, something to watch.

Sunday: Atlantic takes over on this day but NMM shows moderate amounts of instability moving in from the west during the early part of the afternoon, confidence is low at this stage but I'd expect showers to have a good amount of shear, however showers/thunderstorms won't be slow moving so flooding is unlikely to be an issue.

Edited June 8, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Windblade]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Not sure if this has been touched on with regards to this subject, but supposedly more vivid and loud cig lightning bolts maybe +ve lightning strikes. It only makes up 5% of all strikes, but they are more dangerous than -ve CGs as they originate from the cirrus anvil rather than the base of the storm, and have to build up a much greater charge to bridge the greater distance to the ground. More on this here from the US NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/lightning/positive.html

interestingly the article mentions that +ve CGs are the dominant type of CG in winter storms and when storms are dissipating.

Another point to note, though not from the article, is that CG lightning can be more prevalent or frequent in elevated or high based storms, as electrical charge tends to dissipate to the ground more easily through the cloud and rain without a lightning strike with surface based storms, whereas drier air beneath an elevated storm tends to allow the charge to build up more easily to result in a CG strike to from cloud to ground. 

Ah, thanks Nick, that's very interesting!

[Tempest]

13 minutes ago, NUT said:

Looks like it's started to fire off again. SW Scotland/Northern England

Hi NUT. Where is it firing off? I cant see anything on radar and nothing happening around here apart from a few cumulus clouds building? Cheers

 

[weirpig]

21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'm in Croydon today and looks like most models generally agree that this area is a sweet spot (amongst others) with storms moving in a south-westerly direction.

21 degrees here when I last looked and sure feels like it too. Diurnal heating driving storm development this afternoon and the sun's out so things are looking good here.

Doubt it'll be a patch on the MK cell yesterday. We also got a few close rumbles last night after midnight but I had storm fatigue from the afternoon's activities so wasn't watching for the lightning but it was close cod I could see the flashes even with the blinds drawn.

to be honest  i havnt been paying much attention for todays storms   i thought after yesterday that would be the end of them   however from what i can gleen could be see storms breaking out from the northwest across the midlands to the sout east?

[Tempest]

Ah, just checked radar and some nice red returns showing heading over Thornhill/moffat way and coming down towards...ME!

[Chris.R]

Best I can hope for is to see/hear  something in the distance to the east today I think. 

[Tempest]

C'mon, c'mon, start to show some lightning strikes! Bet its just piddling rain!!!

[WillinGlossop]

Huge towers going up macc/stoke way..... Since the sun broke through the low cloud from overnight....20c at 9am now 24c very humid feel.... Might nab a storm.... Nothing on radar returns but they are always 15-30 mins behind developments.... Sferics should be detected near here soon..... 

[Gordon Webb]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

to be honest  i havnt been paying much attention for todays storms   i thought after yesterday that would be the end of them   however from what i can gleen could be see storms breaking out from the northwest across the midlands to the sout east?

they're expected to form on higher ground probably North West / Northen England  or Wales then move SE / S but since the movement is that slow like it was yesterday I had a heavy shower /storm about 15 miles away didn't see no rain whatsoever and nothing like yesterday is expected anywhere and most will have gone by 8pm

[Tempest]

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Huge towers going up macc/stoke way..... Since the sun broke through the low cloud from overnight....20c at 9am now 24c very humid feel.... Might nab a storm.... Nothing on radar returns but they are always 15-30 mins behind developments.... Sferics should be detected near here soon..... 

That's handy to know. I didn't realise that the returns were behind lol.