Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Singularity]

The way GEFS is depicting an odd hangback of tropical convection in phase 1 of the MJO plots makes me suspicious of the dramatic west based negative NAO charts; phase 1 supports such a thing but the general consensus among mets is (as far as I am aware) that the convection ought to get right on with a decay in phase 2.

Of course, this musing may yet prove pointless if GFS turns out to have been leading us up the garden path with such a rapid onset major blocking in the first place. 

I've tried not to think about it all too much and just let things reach some form of resolution with respect to where we'll be by the middle of next week.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The 18z at 372 shows a hemispheric implosion of any zonal wind being that at 60N we are pretty much easterly around the entire globe

It seems ridiculous to me, almost implausible.

[cheshire snow]

Holy moly it's not winter yet am I'm confused 

C.S

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It seems ridiculous to me, almost implausible.

GFS mean at just T138

total agreement on a greenland High 

remember - if the train leaves in this type of pattern its a lock in for 7 - ..... days 

S

[Catacol]

10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

but when as February delivered a proper tanking lately though. The problem with feb is you need circa -15c uppers to get the North sea into action. Its December - 20th Jan or bust this year although up here we can get blasted in March but most people cant.

Best snow I've seen in the south has been in February. No way at all that February should be written off in theory or in practice this year. And who is to say that we will have anything other than a neutral ENSO or perhaps still a disconnect come February.?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS mean at just T138

total agreement on a greenland High 

remember - if the train leaves in this type of pattern its a lock in for 7 - ..... days 

S

My only concern is what type of cargo the train is carrying, we need it to be of the very dense variety but haven't seen many ensemble members yet show that in the way of very low uppers.

Its no good a big -AO / - NAO pattern being locked in with -4c uppers.

Edited November 16, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Best snow I've seen in the south has been in February. No way at all that February should be written off in theory or in practice this year. And who is to say that we will have anything other than a neutral ENSO or perhaps still a disconnect come February.?

I wouldn't write it off but certainly wouldn't want to enter it needing it to save our winter, December the most likely to deliver this year.

[SMU]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It seems ridiculous to me, almost implausible.

Feb

wait till the models get a grip on the troughing over scandi day 8-10- especially the allignment

All assuming the euros back the GFS tomorrow...

S

[Nick F]

12z ECMWF ensembles highlight the sudden increase in uncertainty in the mesoscale associated with the track of Sunday's low. London ENS show a sudden spread in wind and rainfall on the 20th (Sun) and also the standard deviation for MSLP across southern UK on Sunday is quite high - giving low confidence in the low's track.

Shame they have got rid of the EPS postage stamps on the ECMWF old site which they've now closed.

12z GFS, GEM, UKMO and Arpege all took the low across the UK, most far south, Arpege central UK. EC sticking with its guns along N France. Be interesting where the low tracks on tomorrow's runs.

[Catacol]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't write it off but certainly wouldn't want to enter it needing it to save our winter, December the most likely to deliver this year.

January for me. Anything this side of mid Dec will be a bonus in my opinion, but with the vortex shot to shreds by mid Dec I would see lagtime still meaning the best chance for cold is January. Even if we did get some atmospheric response to a weak Nina I dont think it would override the dominant strat impact and February could still also be cold, at least in the first half. Anyway for once we might actually get our best synoptics timed to coincide with very weak sun, short days and deep cold out east. Current flip flopping of the models was called days ago by the most knowledgeable of folk. In my experience the models never respond well to the impact of a strat meltdown and cannot see past it. 

Really good chance this year for an excellent cold winter. Far too many gloomy posts at the moment. My calendar still says that T+240 doesnt even get us to December. 10 days is an age in this game - everyone needs to relax and ponder the possible outcomes with the current teleconnections in place.

[booferking]

Time to stop using the GFS high moves from greenland to nearly over us haha.  Back Track City

Could be worse tho nice dry crisp weather if correct.

Edited November 17, 2016 by booferking

[Mucka]

GFS

A move toward ECM, are we slowly getting consensus on a mid lat high over or just to the North of the UK around day 7/8?

UKMO 144

UKMO doesn't make anything of the lows running along the base of the trough affecting Southern/Central UK but still quite few GFS ensembles want to develop something pretty fierce.

 

Edited November 17, 2016 by Mucka

[jvenge]

At T240 cold temps are very close for the UK. Not sure where it goes from there.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles

One thing that has been consistent is the lack of a cold signal within either GFS or ECM ensembles. Cool/chilly ground temps at times yes but no cold upper air.

At least a couple manage to straggle -5 line in the 00z set which is I think the best so far but it's a bit limp if you are looking for something out of the ordinary. (like me)

I'm not making any comment on Dec prospects BTW, still see no reason not to stay optimistic.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Mucka

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles

One thing that has been consistent is the lack of a cold signal within either GFS or ECM ensembles. Cool/chilly ground temps at times yes but no cold upper air.

At least a couple manage to straggle -5 line in the 00z set which is I think the best so far but it's a bit limp if you are looking for something out of the ordinary. (like me)

I'm not making any comment on Dec prospects BTW, still see no reason not to stay optimistic.

Close to average, which isn't too bad, of course.

[knocker]

Today

All areas in a brisk westerly wind with heavy wintry showers in Scotland, N. Ireland and north of England with snow on high ground perhaps as far south as the Cotswolds.

A more persistent band of rain in in the south will travel west to east during the day.. Feeling decidedly chilly in the wind with a marked latitudinal temperature differential. All in all quite a grotty late Autumn day.

Now for the GFS starting Sunday. It now has the depression running into the western end of the Channel Sunday morning and then NE to be off the Norfolk coast by 1800z. So still the possibility of some flakes on the higher ground on the northern flank as it traverses the country. This is qickly followed by the next low swinging in from the SW to be centred over the Midlands 985mb by 0600z Tuesday bringing more rain and some quite strong winds

Where do we go from here? More or less in the direction that has been hinted at for a while with Amplification proceeding at pace but with fluidity with the Atlantic ridge surging north then NE as the the trough does likewise running south  ending with a cut off upper low over Iberia with the band of HP to the north.

So to sum up we are looking at a wet and windy few days before the arrival of more settled weather although this will be more likely in the north with the south remaining under the influence of the large low pressure area to the south. This scenario also introduces a quite strong easterly wind component but not to be alarmed as temps are around average

EDIT

Just to note this so-called Greenland block is still allowing energy emitted from Canada to pop around the north and nip SE so voila a trough over Scandinavia at T288. Just to be noted of course and no action taken.

The GEFS anomaly

Edited November 17, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Looking like a uk high as we move through next week, the ukmo and ecm seemingly agreeing on this.The big question now is will it sink back into Europe allowing the jet over the top? Surely this goes against all the background signals???? 

Edit finely balanced ay 168

Edited November 17, 2016 by northwestsnow

[That ECM]

I understand that people will be disappointed in the GFS trending towards the ECM but that was likely imo. I need cross model agreement before you can get  excited but if you look at the ECM and where the GFS goes past T240 there is much to be hopeful about. Blocking to NW or NE is a matter of when and not if imo. 

[MR EXTREMES]

well we could say that if the ecm is right then the settled spell will make a return.

after brief cooler spell for some.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking like a uk high as we move through next week, the ukmo and ecm seemingly agreeing on this.The big question now is will it sink back into Europe allowing the jet over the top? Surely this goes against all the background signals???? 

Edit finely balanced ay 168

it looks like its already sinking by 168

[knocker]

The ecm has the low this weekend Normandy 06z Sunday.then NE to be west of Norfolk by 1800z. The precipitation SE of a line Dorset to the Wash with the heavier in the south east. Not a likely snow scenario but one would need much more detail nearer the time to be even closely definitive.

[terrier]

So the gfs moves towards the ecm which always was to be expected. Ecm is the top preforming model anyway. So it looks like the uk will be sat under high pressure next week with some chilly days. Then not sure we're we go after that we're kind of in no mans land. To be continued this one I think. 

[MR EXTREMES]

but the 240 ecm is not without interest 3 bites of the cherry maybe,,,,,,

although the fear of west based nao is also there 

 

 

[knocker]

The difference between the evolution of the ecm upper pattern and the gfs appears on the surface (no pun intended) to be along the lines that has been the difference over the last couple of days. It proceeds with the amplification a la gfs but then the ridge is attacked by a pincer movement from energy running up from the eastern seaboard phasing with energy from Canada which ends with a deep trough over Iceland squashing the ridge to a narrow band over the UK. In theory T264 should have deep upper trough over  the UK.

It would appear to be the handling of the upstream antics that is causing the problem

Edited November 17, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Nope, no sinker on Ecm, phew! Ecm 240 offers potential, and before that a cold high, lots to be positive about from the Ecm this morning in my humbly amateur opinion...