Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Weathizard]

I think the reason for the angst is that sypnotically speaking we are seeing patterns conducive to the cold everyone craves to but we are missing the boat at this chance because there is no cold to tap into and that irritating Russian high just won't do the proverbial! Or at least align the right way.

Massive blocks like that don't budge easily and it's the sort of pattern which we've seen become very stagnant before, we will see but I do see this period as a wasted chance at something, that's not to say there aren't still chances further down the line with the signals in place.

 

Anyone depressed or frustrated only needs to look at where we were last year.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Weathizard

[lorenzo]

Would you rather have the atmosphere - not really aided by such things as hugely anomalous Russian Highs - doing this...

Or would you gamble and have an NH pattern reflective of something that was doing this instead.. (On November the 16th, two weeks away from the 'official' start of winter)...

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by lorenzo

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

On a positive note, the ecm run is certainly not mild, quite chilly to be honest. It will feel seasonal which is much better than most Novembers I can remember.

Agreed, and as for mixed signals which has been mentioned a few times today, well, at least we are looking at a level playing field between mild, average and cold..too often it's only mild mush on the menu but the models are not showing that..and hopefully that will remain the case! I would love a strong start to winter to make up for the dross that was served up last december.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Frosty.

[Gael_Force]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The forecasts on the cpc national climate centre website are based on the gfs ensembles? I didn't realise that. Thanks for letting me know.

I'm sure I saw Blue Army sneak in an EPS AO graph from weatherbell .... it also looked very negative or, at least, the control run was.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Gael_Force

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Would you rather have the atmosphere - not really aided by such things as hugely anomalous Russian Highs - doing this...

Or would you gamble and have an NH pattern reflective of something that was doing this instead.. (On November the 16th, two weeks away from the 'official' start of winter)...

 

I couldn't see that well because the background was black rather than the usual white, i take it that shows the zonal average height anomaly positive from about 18000ft (500mb) right the way up to roughly 150000+ft (top of strat)

Edited November 16, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the problem is........I'm a celeb wasn't on last night and England blew it at 90 + 6!  

 

We we are in a good place synoptically folks.....that I am convinced of. A BFTP winter is coming 

 

BFTP

Edited November 16, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

 

We are in a good place synoptically folks.....that I am convinced of. A BFTP winter is coming 

 

BFTP

I agree Fred, the models have a much more seasonal flavour going forward.

[lorenzo]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I couldn't see that well because the background was black rather than the usual white, i take it that shows the zonal average heights positive from about 18000ft (500mb) right the way up to roughly 150000+ft (top of strat)

The chart headers are there - just difficult to make out try these ones.. geopotential anoms across strat. Very active Autumn leading us to where we are now at this juncture, with the vortex having a 70s/80s rewind - if it had feelings I would say it is looking back on last year's 'holiday romance' with ENSO with less than fond memories.

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm sure I saw Blue Army sneak in an EPS AO graph from weatherbell .... it also looked very negative or, at least, the control run was.

That's quite wicked. The mean goes negative tomorrow and remains negative to the 30th averaging around -1

Edited November 16, 2016 by knocker

[blizzard81]

46 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As long as you keep lower pressure in the northern Med then that stops the high from sinking and we have to hope that the upstream pattern can amplify further. Although I derided the ECM it could be worse but of course so much better. I give it a C+.

Would you be kind enough to let us know what the US forecasters think Nick? Are they leaning towards the gfs or ecm solution? Or a bit of both lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

The chart headers are there - just difficult to make out try these ones.. geopotential anoms across strat. Very active Autumn leading us to where we are now at this juncture, with the vortex having a 70s/80s rewind - if it had feelings I would say it is looking back on last year's 'holiday romance' with ENSO with less than fond memories.

Thanks, yes, it was what i was thinking it was more or less, just couldn't see the latitude, see now its in the top right.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's quite wicked. The mean goes negative tomorrow and remains negative to the 30th averaging around -1

Gfs isn't 

[bobbydog]

Yep, boring old high stuck over the country. No atlantic ridging. Could we ever get a decent winter from here?

 

 

Oh, have I put the wrong chart in? 

[Frosty.]

There is wintry potential from the GEFS 12z with some near misses and direct hits..here is my cherry pick

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Yep, boring old high stuck over the country. No atlantic ridging. Could we ever get a decent winter from here?

 

 

Oh, have I put the wrong chart in? 

Great spot Bobbydog

[Frank Trough]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Great spot Bobbydog

But if you look far enough ahead any given chart could lead to cold. Nobody ever posts charts on here that preceded a horror show 3 weeks later but I bet you can find thousands. 

In the meantime the other side of Autumn over the next few days and through the weekend. First real blow and could be pretty wet for many. Nothing out of the ordinary.

[gottolovethisweather]

55 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Gordon Bennett, there's really no pleasing some folks, is there?We have the best mid-November synoptics we've seen for maybe six-years and people are already predicting winter's premature demise?

Come on peeps...Get a grip!

 

 

I don't get it either, Pete, telling it like it is, doesn't seem to work anymore. See below. 

It appears people only believe the unbelievable to the point that the believable gets ignored in the outputs. Day one of the cool to cold spell incoming tomorrow, enjoy! 

Edited November 16, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

Er

its GFS + UKMO v ECM tonight 

 

UKMO day 7 (168 ) is more like the GFS...

S

[Weather Observer]

I keep thinking that I might venture a post in this thead. It informs me on prospects for my favourite weather, ice and snow. Comments on here have made the sea so choppy that every time I try to board it, the boat is somewhere else. Suffice to say, I gave up the chase about mid Feb last year. Only three months to go! And as others have said we are quids up synoptically compared with this time last year.

Btw I remember 62/63 and we had to put up with a lot of boring old high pressure then before we hit the jackpot.

 

[nick sussex]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Would you be kind enough to let us know what the US forecasters think Nick? Are they leaning towards the gfs or ecm solution? Or a bit of both lol.

Well this was the latest update from New York state forecast:

At this time, the operational GFS seems to be the outlier with
little development to a cyclone, and positioning further north
than the GEM or EURO...and even the GEFS ensemble mean. Those
models dig a strong upper level cyclone over NY/PA late Saturday
night into Sunday.

We will monitor this situation closely, and you should too.
Future model run sampling is expected to improve now that the main
energy has reached the U.S. West Coast.
 

The above isn't great news but its not just those differences to take into account, the issue with the non GFS outputs is the ejection of shortwave energy east which cuts off the WAA into Greenland. All the outputs have an amplified upstream pattern and theres still some uncertainty reading some of the other state forecasts. I'd be surprised if this disagreement lasted much longer given the timeframes.

They do another update a bit later so we'll see if that adds anything.

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Er

its GFS + UKMO v ECM tonight 

 

UKMO day 7 (168 ) is more like the GFS...

S

To be honest Steve, it's take your pick which model leads us into a very different winter than the last few. I reckon 'all roads lead to Rome' this year...

(The snowy Rome, not the one in Italy )

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Er

its GFS + UKMO v ECM tonight 

 

UKMO day 7 (168 ) is more like the GFS...

S

UKMO day 7 Steve ??

[weatherguy]

25 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Yep, boring old high stuck over the country. No atlantic ridging. Could we ever get a decent winter from here?

 

 

Oh, have I put the wrong chart in? 

To be fair, that looks packed full of potential with that ridging into greenland....now, where have I heard that mentioned round here....  

 

Seen many a drama where different models go for drastically different scenarios at relatively short term, of course due to some sort of situation being on a knife edge (in this case, it's the angle of energy coming out of Canada, and how much is deflected north)...For the UK, a small island at the edge of a vast ocean, even the most promising of NH profiles will be somewhat "knife-edged".  In our current situation, I wouldn't get worried though, we're not even in December.  The NH synoptics are looking very good on the broader scale, we have the strat under attack before the poor bugger's even woken up properly, and no train of winter storms rolling in to leave us all soggy and miserable for the whole of November.  Longer term, we look to be well placed for real cold.  Here's to hoping the GFS comes off (for a change) against the ECM solution, if only for impatient folk like me as I'd have snapped your arm off for the ECM's solution this time last year.

 

And can I just add... 

That is one fine-looking "Murr Sausage".

Edited November 16, 2016 by weatherguy

[Jeremy Shockey]

some decent potential for Wintry precipitation on Fri morning in the North. Second snow event for many and it is only mid Nov ( not sure what some folk are complaining about to be honest )

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes quite benign as time goes on with pressure rising across the uk with an increasing risk of fog and frost.