Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still looking at that D10-D15 period ... regardless of uppers, fairly cold at the surface on both ECM (De Bilt) and GEFS (central England) - that ECM control run looks frigid.

  

 

Got a gut feeling though that, slightly along the lines of the ECM, we may see another trough slip through the Atlantic block between T192 and T264, and a fresh build of pressure towards Greenland behind? In other words, a repeat of the D1-D5 scenario?

knmi plumes you can fing here too but with slightly higher resolution graphs http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

[Nouska]

22 minutes ago, andymusic said:

looking good for Wales & Midlands early sunday morning now as long as things don't change anymore

ARPEGE using some of Meteociel's new gizmos

   

[sorepaw1]

Is this the second spell of potent weather for the uk for next Tuesday  showing on the 06z.

It wasn't showing on the 00z.

But  was on last night's 18z. Has the potential for heavy rain sleet Hail and winteryness and strong gusty winds.

Feeling quite raw I'd imagine .

Edited November 17, 2016 by sorepaw1

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

ARPEGE using some of Meteociel's new gizmos

   

Wow very nice what a lovely feature  wales midlands and the north may see some pink pixels  certainly not a boring start to the season 

[Banbury]

A chilly Easterly .............promising chart Id say

[feb1991blizzard]

The 240 chart looks like its going to be a quality retrogression with stonking end results, wouldn't mind betting that this will get the -8c isotherm into England via a Nort / NE flow.

 

Edited November 17, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

A chilly Easterly .............promising chart Id say

 

The problem is most of these charts are around 10 day's out and never seem to make it any closer until anything like that gets to t144 and lower I would advise a lot of caution

[karlos1983]

One thing for sure going off 06z output, is it certainly won't be feeling mild at the surface, even with modest 850's, especially in the breeze over the southern half of the UK.

 

Lots of opportunities from here.

A few frames later and serious cold knocking on our door.... we can dream

Edited November 17, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

The problem is most of these charts are around 10 day's out and never seem to make it any closer until anything like that gets to t144 and lower I would advise a lot of caution

As I say and always have ANYTHING after 120 hours is ..................................Just for fun

[Met4Cast]

Even when it "goes wrong" it goes right.  High Pressure retrogressing to Greenland, low pressure dropping into Scandi.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yup. here she comes.

[marksiwnc]

29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still looking at that D10-D15 period ... regardless of uppers, fairly cold at the surface on both ECM (De Bilt) and GEFS (central England) - that ECM control run looks frigid.

  

 

Got a gut feeling though that, slightly along the lines of the ECM, we may see another trough slip through the Atlantic block between T192 and T264, and a fresh build of pressure towards Greenland behind? In other words, a repeat of the D1-D5 scenario?

Temps seem to be dropping at the end too which is nice to see. Remember around the 10th Dec is when I expect the fun and games to start 

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh no - spoiler shortwave cuts off the flow.

[karlos1983]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Even when it "goes wrong" it goes right.  High Pressure retrogressing to Greenland, low pressure dropping into Scandi.

Yup, I can't really see how we won't get a decent cold spell at some point in the next few weeks. NH has not been this well primed for donkeys yonks! It would take some seriously bad luck, almost everything is in our favor. 

[beng]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh no - spoiler shortwave cuts off the flow.

I guess the core of the upper heights are too far West (Canada rather than Greenland) for perfection in this run which is opening the door to that - especially when coupled with the still warm sea temps

Edited November 17, 2016 by beng

[bluearmy]

The eps have never promised anything of note until the back end of the month 

it's currently looking very retrogressive past day 10 and given events high up recently and going forward I guess that shouldn't come as much of a surprise. 

The eps signal past day 10 is difficult to judge in the mean/anomoly but I would guess a broad sceuro trough by the end of the month with Atlantic systems trundling in with little oomph around a mid Atlantic high which ebbs and flows with systems exiting the eastern seaboard and splitting their energy both north and east into a southerly jet. Where these systems engage the troughing will dictate whether we see wet or white when they arrive. 

[Met4Cast]

I'm not sure I've ever seen High Pressure go from the UK and then travel Westwards as far as the Western United States. 

[jvenge]

Might disappoint a some hoping for benefit of an Easterly. Still, at that range, relatively small changes could result in something a little better.

 

[sorepaw1]

Taken from the 06z at T+216hrs.

High pressure to the north of the uk feeding an Easterly low pressure to the south. It wouldn't be a suprise if parts of the south have some wintery ppn from this set up a cool Easterly bumping into a much colder Easterly. 

I may have the wrong handle on this .

[karlos1983]

I give you ladies and gentlemen the only Mid latitude country in the entire Northern hemisphere to be in positive 850 temp values, the United Kingdom 

Thankfully that is the last frame of the gfs 06z

 

[Zakos]

On the ECM

at 240+ looks to me like that altantic ridge is going to attempt to link up with the Arctic High, looks very promising to me.

The problem with the 06z GFS is that there isnt enough bocking in the atlantic, leaving the atlantic door open.

 

Both GFS and ECM ensemble means agree the atlantic will be effectively dead as we head into the Start of winter.

ECM still a little reluctant to build heights over Greenland.

Edited November 17, 2016 by Zakos

[snowflakey]

Will feel quite cold tomorrow in a strong N/NE and the 528 dam flirting with the south coast.

[mb018538]

The black hole anomalies over Greenland were there at 240 a few days back - so really they should be there at 168/192 by now. Fact is they aren't, they are in the same place as before. Frustrating! Good job it's still only mid November, we are quickly approaching peak time for winter though. I'd say anything from mid-December to mid-February is the absolute prime time for some serious cold, just as late June-early August is for the summer peak heat.

Edited November 17, 2016 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

Very interesting Gfs 6z charts these, ok it didn't follow through on its promise this time but at least it shows we (coldies) are very much in the game in the run up to winter!

Edited November 17, 2016 by Frosty.

[Glacier Point]

Another run, another ensemble mean suggesting quite an aggressive +ve height anomaly developing over Hudson Bay in the week 2 period with a switch in the flow to the southern arm of the jet over the US. Western Europe left under a weakish upper trough signal (temps marginally below average).

Two things to ponder here. 

What's to stop the westward movement of the upper ridge over the Canadian Arctic ? There may be some stratospheric-tropospheric coupling going on, but over time we would normally expect such features to shift their position westwards. That allows for the controlling influence of the Canadian ridge to be negated downstream. With the pattern of tropical convective rainfall beginning to creep back towards the Maritime Continent (non-MJO component), this suggest mid Atlantic / possibly Barents Sea / Scandinavia area modest ridge development. These won't be too obvious on week 2 means or even spreads, but small scale mid to high latitude ridges developing within a flow which is well displaced of its norm would be interesting.

Within this context, stratospheric warming impacts will be around the week 3 / week 4 periods. The tell tale signature for vortex splits is very cold 850 values pouring into NW Russia and Northern Scandinavia. Helsinki, Moscow and Murmansk the locations to keep an eye on for extended range ensembles. Some twitching of ensembles for these locations staring to occur but nothing stark just yet.

Intriguing times.