Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Seasonality]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Er

its GFS + UKMO v ECM tonight 

 

UKMO day 7 (168 ) is more like the GFS...

S

UKMO 168? How did you get access to that?

[SMU]

Its a bit sketchy on clarity as theres no polar profiles however there is high pressure ridged towards Greenland- hard to make out the heights though-

[summer blizzard]

As despondent as some are we are facing a potential snow event in 4 days and by day 11 the GFS has a solid easterly. I'm pretty happy.

[knocker]

Looking at the 6-10 anomalies this evening illustrates, well to me anyway, why we are getting these variations with the det. runs. One of the essential differences with tonight's ecm vis the GEFs was it's treatment of the amplification of the Atlantic HP. It was nowhere near as intense and still allowed energy transfer from Canada into the eastern Atlantic trough via Greenland which then led to a different surface analysis for the UK.

Looking at NOAA, GEFs and the EPS you can see why. The Atlantic ridge with the latter is orientated differently and certainly is not so intense. Until this is sorted the det. differences will remain.

 

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

some decent potential for Wintry precipitation on Fri morning in the North. Second snow event for many and it is only mid Nov ( not sure what some folk are complaining about to be honest )

Interesting, another borderline setup, most likely need to have decent elevation for snow though..

[fergieweather]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes quite benign as time goes on with pressure rising across the uk with an increasing risk of fog and frost.

 

Yup, don't understand the gloomier posts this evening. ECMWF 12z ENS continue to favour slightly -ve temps versus avg by day, albeit spread in overnight minima is (at least in part) reflective of cloud cover uncertainty. Either way, 850hPa trend has become more aligned to the chillier members rather than the milder ones; I don't see anything to change the broad prognosis of temperatures overall finishing the month a tad below normal, despite some slightly milder phases. It's hardly 2015 revisited....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

58 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Yep, boring old high stuck over the country. No atlantic ridging. Could we ever get a decent winter from here?

 

 

Oh, have I put the wrong chart in? 

Cheeky Bobby......cheeky. You are naughty.....but nice !!

[sorepaw1]

Thought I'd post this chart for next Tuesday night.. possible chance of something wintery on this for NE England the  Midlands and parts of the south. Strong and blustery winds at least feeling quite raw in the wind i reckon.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Yup, don't understand the gloomier posts this evening. ECMWF 12z ENS continue to favour slightly -ve temps versus avg by day, albeit spread in overnight minima is (at least in part) reflective of cloud cover uncertainty. Either way, 850hPa trend has become more aligned to the chillier members rather than the milder ones; I don't see anything to change the broad prognosis of temperatures overall finishing the month a tad below normal, despite some slightly milder phases. It's hardly 2015 revisited....

tbh i think a lot of folk were or are expecting something wintry ie snow ete given the background signals!!!

[lorenzo]

As if there wasn't enough fun happening throwing these into the mix - MJO evolutions from ECM / UKMO / GEFS.

Varying degrees of imprint there given analogs. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Also from the bias suite we seem to have some notable willingness to levitate matters somewhat in the Greenland locale...

Regardless I don't think a clear route will unwind until this monster block in the NH damn subsides and following this the models latch onto a sensible course ahead, hence the variability, that's the close up take watching run to run variance. The other perspective is well versed in previous post given GPH anoms inflecting in the mid term, below from CPC a couple of the latest blocking forecasts.

 

[Gibby]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

tbh i think a lot of folk were or are expecting something wintry ie snow ete given the background signals!!!

 

10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yup, don't understand the gloomier posts this evening. ECMWF 12z ENS continue to favour slightly -ve temps versus avg by day, albeit spread in overnight minima is (at least in part) reflective of cloud cover uncertainty. Either way, 850hPa trend has become more aligned to the chillier members rather than the milder ones; I don't see anything to change the broad prognosis of temperatures overall finishing the month a tad below normal, despite some slightly milder phases. It's hardly 2015 revisited....

I think the problem as always on these forums Ian is that anything less than the holy grail (i.e. Widespread snowfall) falls short of the mark for most.

[dbaloo]

I think that some members in there need to remember scenes like this across the county last winter and the autumn/winter before...I'm sure many are just glad that it's pleasant at the moment...plenty of time for the cold to set in if it does indeed arrive

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, swfc said:

tbh i think a lot of folk were or are expecting something wintry ie snow ete given the background signals!!!

Give it chance, it's only November 16th 

At least the models look seasonal with a mix of mild, average and cold with the cold on balance having the upper hand, at least across northern uk.

[cheese]

18 minutes ago, Gibby said:

 

I think the problem as always on these forums Ian is that anything less than the holy grail (i.e. Widespread snowfall) falls short of the mark for most.

That's called unrealistic expectations though. How frequently do people expect widespread snow and long-lasting cold to occur in the UK? 

Edited November 16, 2016 by cheese

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Give it chance, it's only November 16th 

At least the models look seasonal with a mix of mild, average and cold with the cold on balance having the upper hand, at least across northern uk.

Indeed, Karl - even in the glory days of the 1960s, widespread major snow-events, in November, were the exception rather than the rule...A lot can happen (both model- and weather-wise) in two weeks?

[Glacier Point]

26 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

As if there wasn't enough fun happening throwing these into the mix - MJO evolutions from ECM / UKMO / GEFS.

Varying degrees of imprint there given analogs. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Also from the bias suite we seem to have some notable willingness to levitate matters somewhat in the Greenland locale...

Regardless I don't think a clear route will unwind until this monster block in the NH damn subsides and following this the models latch onto a sensible course ahead, hence the variability, that's the close up take watching run to run variance. The other perspective is well versed in previous post given GPH anoms inflecting in the mid term, below from CPC a couple of the latest blocking forecasts.

 

Now that would be interesting - the mjo showing an affinity with the Western Hemisphere. Would fit the idea of some choreography between a strat warming event and how that transposed itself in the mid and high latitudes. Think the mjo will trend more neutral though, and intraseasonal forcing over the maritime continent more to the fore.

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Now that would be interesting - the mjo showing an affinity with the Western Hemisphere. Would fit the idea of some choreography between a strat warming event and how that transposed itself in the mid and high latitudes. Think the mjo will trend more neutral though, and intraseasonal forcing over the maritime continent more to the fore.

^^^ the perfect example of a qualified & informative model discussion thread post..........unlike some of the posts preceding it..........think about it!

[Met4Cast]

18z slightly more amplified as early as T84

[shaky]

Stronger ridge in the atlantic at just 84  hours compared to the 12z!dont seem to be backing down!sundays low slightly further south aswell!

[lorenzo]

The continued jet extension and IOD, maritime forcing is of interest... Taking a step back from the run to run play, we are fortunate to have both the disrupted strat and the all things ENSO to look at in the Pacific, works the mind wonderfully  

Would be neat if ECM bought this methodology and got their model on it...

 

[Ravelin]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

18z slightly more amplified as early as T84

 

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Stronger ridge in the atlantic at just 84  hours compared to the 12z!dont seem to be backing down!sundays low slightly further south aswell!

Still not backing down, so much so that it's spun up the second low to the south.

[Ali1977]

Can the GFS have got this so wrong by day 4? Well one of the models has!! I feel tomorrow could be a good day on here.

Anyway, pub run seems to be following the 12z with WAA up into Greenland, if anything this looks better than the last run....So the last three runs it hasn't backed down, it's actually done the opposite and increased the signal - it has a slightly wider track at 144 too,  which could help force the jet a little further south.

Already 1-0 to GFS vs ECM this silly season, I'm hedging my bets on 2-0. 

[Mucka]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Er

its GFS + UKMO v ECM tonight 

 

UKMO day 7 (168 ) is more like the GFS...

S

What?

That doesn't look at all likely from the 144 chart. 

I'll take your word for it though

 

Certainly GFS not backing down tonight anyway.

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[SMU]

Timing is slower on UKMO - however similar to the GFS theres actually 2 attempts at ridging to Greenland - with the first ridge cut off by the shortwave sliding through at 96 - however the second wave does create another surge shortly after (120 ) - which is the similarity from 144-168 on UKMO - just slower in execution-

Anyway GFS through 138 already home & dry on another Greenland high-

S

pS look at your UKMO 144 - see the spoiler shortwave sliding east over iceand at 144- thats then into scotland at 168 allowing the reridge...

Edited November 16, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Snowman.]

18z Removes the cold air faster but heights are better north. Low further south. 

Edited November 16, 2016 by SN0WM4N