Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Ice Day]

Out to 132 and it's still standing its ground.  Very little difference vs the 12z (on the right).

  

Can we get the highs to link up?

[Mucka]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Timing is slower on UKMO - however similar to the GFS theres actually 2 attempts at ridging to Greenland - with the first ridge cut off by the shortwave sliding through at 96 - however the second wave does create another surge shortly after (120 ) - which is the similarity from 144-168 on UKMO - just slower in execution-

Anyway GFS through 138 already home & dry on another Greenland high-

S

Yes I see that Steve but UKMO would maybe show something more like tonight's JMA which ejects the shortwave and reamplifies?

[SMU]

Could be - impossible to tell with no NH chart !

18z 100% cut off Greenland high at 156 as the jet cuts off over the states

look for a trough or shortwave moving ese over Northern Greenland to start scooping the cold air south...

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Out to 132 and it's still standing its ground.  Very little difference vs the 12z (on the right).

  

Can we get the highs to link up?

We don't really want the heights to link up at this stage else we'll get trapped on the milder side of the block.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Could be - impossible to tell with no NH chart !

18z 100% cut off Greenland high at 156 as the jet cuts off over the states

look for a trough or shortwave moving ese over Northern Greenland to start scooping the cold air south...

There's the scoop !! Cold air now on its way.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Could be - impossible to tell with no NH chart !

 

Yeah, how is that campaign going anyway?

Weren't we all going to hold Fergie hostage and advance on the MetO with pitchforks and torches at one time?

In response they killed short range NH and 850 charts. 

[knocker]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

We don't really want the heights to link up at this stage else we'll get trapped on the milder side of the block.

Yes, even a great long rectangle high with flow from E Russian / Siberia wouldn't bring us anything, nothing in way of cold uppers to 'come around the back'.

[Ventnor Viking]

at 186h there is a trough pushing down from the arctic pushing cold air south will be very interesting to see how far this pushes down!

 

[Ice Day]

8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

We don't really want the heights to link up at this stage else we'll get trapped on the milder side of the block.

Fair point, very little in the way of cold air around our little locale at 192.......yet

 

[bluearmy]

Just a note in the para 12z ecm

much snowier run which brings plenty of the white stuff to most of Wales, high ground of the sw and probably all hills of w England up to approx Manchester 

it has a better go at amplification than the op in the Atlantic but fails again - the mid lat high looks reminiscent of the 00z op and by day 10 the pattern looks ripe for retrogression 

im not convinced that GFS and ECM are really that far apart. I doubt we will see a convincing Greenland ridge as per GFS but neither as flat as ECM. Is it possible to generate a griceland high ?  We did see she runs playing with that yesterday. 

[SMU]

Use this as a guide-

If we get the verified Greenland high at day 7 (168) it will take about 72 hours to recarve the cold back into North west Europe - so day 10 (240) look at the 850s then

IF the GH does varify the train  *IS* coming !!!!

[Ventnor Viking]

nice to see some cold upper temps appearing back in Scandinavia at 216h  

[Jonan92]

Cold beggining to come down from Scandinavia

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a note in the para 12z ecm

much snowier run which brings plenty of the white stuff to most of Wales, high ground of the sw and probably all hills of w England up to approx Manchester 

it has a better go at amplification than the op in the Atlantic but fails again - the mid lat high looks reminiscent of the 00z op and by day 10 the pattern looks ripe for retrogression 

im not convinced that GFS and ECM are really that far apart. I doubt we will see a convincing Greenland ridge as per GFS but neither as flat as ECM. Is it possible to generate a griceland high ?  We did see she runs playing with that yesterday. 

More than possible, tt has probably been the most modeled solution within ensembles.

To others.

Don't really worry about heights linking up, it only helps reinforce the high. Heights will ease West and East as a trough disg down from the North regardless, it just delays chance of any cold uppers by a couple of days

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Ice Day]

Incoming attack from the NE at 222.  Now there's cold in our locale, will it get here though?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Incoming attack from the NE at 222.  Now there's cold in our locale, will it get here though?

Plus if it does theres no danger of it being a dry run either, look at the curvature in the isobars in that shortwave.

[SMU]

2010 v 2016...   rerun? - just need a bigger scoop of cold !

 

[Nick F]

Although high latitude blocking is certainly evident on today's runs, it still seems a long route to deep cold that would bring any lowland snowfall on current runs I've seen.

The problem appears to be the stalling of highly amplified upper trough over western Europe next week, and slow-moving low pressure system near the UK, which ends up drawing mild air into its circulation before eventually the low sinks south as high pressure builds to the north over Iceland and Greenland. Blame the Russian high for the lack of progress eastwards - if those lows did dig deeper into eastern Europe on the southerly track - it could pull down much colder air from the NE. Alas, this doesn't look favourite for now.

However, patience may eventually be rewarded with the signal for high latitude blocking to persist, but we may have to wait for the final days of November or into early December for real cold and snow potential. But that's if the blocking and jet configuration positions favourably ...

Edited November 16, 2016 by Nick F

[Mucka]

LOL that low, and/or associated trough. is with us from 120 through to 300. Someone GIF this. 

 

And we end with another channel low but all we get is cold rain throughout. That would be the best synoptic to completely fail to deliver ever.

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by Mucka

[Geordiesnow]

One good thing perhaps about the ECM is the fact Sunday's low is much shallower which would allow more widespread frosty weather and decreases the chances of Sunday becoming a washout type of day. That said, the GFS is still forecasting the deeper low but as often with this model, what it first predicted is more nearer to the mark before it changes and sticks with it constantly only proven to be wrong but we'll see if this is the case this time.

As for the heights to Greenland, its definately a possibility but I think the likelyhood is decreasing, at least this early anyways, I see the same old thing time and time again, we get models forecasting a GL high then shortwaves come into play and its very rare the models revert back. Not that I really mind much, unless we get some proper cold weather coming out of the Arctic, the Greenland high could just prove to be a waste and the irony of everything in weather forecasting actually shows the ECM to be a marginally colder run despite the less promising upstream pattern.

[Nick F]

Darn west-based -NAO developing T+264 onwards on 18z GFS  ... good job it's deep FI!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Darn west-based -NAO developing T+264 onwards on 18z GFS  ... good job it's deep FI!

That's as west based as you can get!!!!    is  a cold pool heading for the subtropics late on in the run????   -   i  know it curves off towards the stated but at one point it looked ridiculous.

 

EDIT : scrap that comment, its not all that cold and it didn't make it that far past Canada.

Edited November 16, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[SMU]

The 18z at 372 shows a hemispheric implosion of any zonal wind being that at 60N we are pretty much easterly around the entire globe

[Frosty.]

With charts like this from the Gfs 18z, there is hope that we in the .uk will strike cold gold later this month and into December.