Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Snowman.]

ECM D10 is grim, as it has been said russian high needs to go while the pattern is still amplified. 

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, igloo said:

well the ECM and the UKMO look nothing like the GFS so we will likely see the climedown over the next 2-3 runs from the GFS if anything. the ECM has a toppler with could well become a bartlett in the later stages something like  the GEM

Understand your point but with UKMO only going to 144 so much can change after that point , if it went to 240 as per ECM and was neck and neck with it Id share your concern BUT at the moment my powder is still dry......................just

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM D10 is grim

 

Looks nice!  Crisp sunny days and frosts at night.  

What's not to like?

This time last year was grim!

Edited November 16, 2016 by Kentish Snowman

[nick sussex]

Well that was fun! the ECM finishes with a mid lat high so it could turn colder at the surface. Whether it goes onto retrogress things we'll have to see. If the ECM has irritated you my advice stick  the John Lewis Xmas Ad on repeat. Its impossible to be grumpy watching that, what a joy!

 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM D10 is grim

 

Not as bad as it might first look. Trough digs down from the North, Atlantic reamplifies, cue groundhog day.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM D10 is grim

 

Grim ?????  Really ???? Id say November weather , foggy , chilly and  frosty

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Looks nice!  Crisp sunny days and frosts at night.  

What's not to like?

This time last year was grim!

Beat me to it..............totally agree

Edited November 16, 2016 by Banbury

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Not as bad as it might first look. Trough digs down from the North, Atlantic reamplifies, cue groundhog day.

If it digs if not then what are you left with, a boring high. 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, for all the positive backgrpund signals the day 9 chart is pretty poor, in fact its a pretty positive NAO ! 

Indeed. Amazing how the ecm ops over the last couple of days steadfastly refuse to mirror the clear negative AO & NAO forecasts.

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM D10 is grim, as it has been said russian high needs to go while the pattern is still amplified. 

 

Anything but grim. Cold frosty high with the PV shifting to Siberia and proper Greenland heights as the UK high moves NW I reckon. 

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Aye, for all the positive backgrpund signals the day 9 chart is pretty poor, in fact its a pretty positive NAO !

As long as you keep lower pressure in the northern Med then that stops the high from sinking and we have to hope that the upstream pattern can amplify further. Although I derided the ECM it could be worse but of course so much better. I give it a C+.

[Guest]

Well somethings gonna have to give at some point.... it wasnt long ago at the end of October we were all waiting for the GFS to back track toward the ECM only for the ECM to be wrong and the GFS correct..  is it possible the GFS has a better handle on this extremely different NH profile than the others.. i guess the next few days will tell..

[terrier]

So its the ecm ukmo versus the gfs. Think the gfs will start to climb down in future updates. That Russian high certainly needs removing it will do some serious damage to the Scandinavia snowcover. And as we all know that high could take some serious moving. It wouldn't be first time its scuppered many an early cold pattern. 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Anything but grim. Cold frosty high with the PV shifting to Siberia and proper Greenland heights as the UK high moves NW I reckon. 

Compared the what the GFS is offering its pretty, meh. If it was last year I would take it in a heartbeat but with different options available the ECM falls flat. 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Well somethings gonna have to give at some point.... it wasnt long ago at the end of October we were all waiting for the GFS to back track toward the ECM only for the ECM to be wrong and the GFS correct..  is it possible the GFS has a better handle on this extremely different NH profile than the others.. i guess the next few days will tell..

GFS was wrong. They both arrived at a mid point during the same day. 

Edited November 16, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Jonan92]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. Amazing how the ecm ops over the last couple of days steadfastly refuse to mirror the clear negative AO & NAO forecasts.

Well, those forecasts are based on the GEFS, it if changes so will those forecasts

[Guest]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

GFS was wrong. They both arrived at a mid point during the same day. 

Yes sorry i stand corrected... so maybe they are both wrong this time and we end up with a middle ground again...  such a strange set up in the NH at the moment i guess anything is possible.... we can but dream that GFS is correct tho cant we?

[Methuselah]

Gordon Bennett, there's really no pleasing some folks, is there?We have the best mid-November synoptics we've seen for maybe six-years and people are already predicting winter's premature demise?

Come on peeps...Get a grip!

[Zakos]

Still no closer to a firm resolution really.

All models agree at 96 hours there will be an attempt at ridging into Greenland.

Ive seen dramatic changes in the ouput occur at 72+ hours before, would have thought at 120+ hours there is fair chance the GFS could be correct.

Surely by tommorow morning we will know if the ridging into Greenland will be successful. 

 

 

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Well, those forecasts are based on the GEFS, it if changes so will those forecasts

The forecasts on the cpc national climate centre website are based on the gfs ensembles? I didn't realise that. Thanks for letting me know.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS mean has been rock solid in supporting a colder blocked late Nov / early Dec so that's a reason for coldies to be cheerful looking ahead!

[MR EXTREMES]

i think the problem is i think models and us people we underestimate the vortex.

we seen splits before and its never really favoured us.

the ecm been following the gem the last few days but ecm more progressive the back tracked.

if longterm cold is what your looking for then gfs would be the best of the bunch.

but its possible that this is the first really long garden path ,

 it could be winter of high pressure over us.

or typical close but no cigar winter.

 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Well, mixed feelings today. while I feel the gfs is on the right lines, you can't discount the Ecm and GEM.  

I've still got strong feelings that December will deliver plenty of snow opportunities, so I'm remaining happy

[Zakos]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Gordon Bennett, there's really no pleasing some folks, is there?We have the best mid-November synoptics we've seen for maybe six-years and people are already predicting winter's premature demise?

Come on peeps...Get a grip!

Todays ECM at 240+ compared to what we had on that date last year. Arctic high, no raging vortex, weak jet stream, low heights to our south.

We may find out tommorow that the GFS was wrong. In the grand scheme of things thats irrelevant,in my opinion. Should never get your hopes up over cold that shows on the models unless it is hitting the UK consistently within the 144+ timeframe.

The bigger picture as we head into December is fantastic. Not saying we shouldn't be cautious, but the pessimism on here is too prevalent IMO, not surprising really after the dire winter we had last year!

we just are not seeing the same synoptics as that winter, every reason to be optimistic as we head into December IMO.

 

 

Edited November 16, 2016 by Zakos

[blizzard81]

On a positive note, the ecm run is certainly not mild, quite chilly to be honest. It will feel seasonal which is much better than most Novembers I can remember.