Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, SnowMania said:

Not sure why people are writing it off just after a few model runs? That's why we have models and different runs, so every option can be shown and valued!

To see charts like this in the depths of Winter, especially after the last few winters, is enough for me to be optimistic! 

GFS 12z +144

Absolutely agree I'm quietly happy with this evenings runs slow progression to northern blocking.

Lower pressure moving down into Europe 

Edited December 30, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Purga]

Worth keeping the faith

Note the HP in the mid Atlantic not LP!

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The east clings onto the colder air

Continuing dry and cold for many maybe milder for Ireland but surface cold remains for most of the UK

I see an Atlantic high ridging northwards and the UK high seems to be wanting to take a holiday to western Scandinavia. Trends are still good although the 12zs have been a little sobering. Met Office update was decent

[The PIT]

Looking at deep la la land at T240 ECM. One thing that strikes me is that there isn't a lot of energy going over the High so it isn't going to sink into Europe. Maybe just maybe it will build over Norway and give us an easterly.  Problem next run it'll be placed elsewhere but one to think about.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

What 'cold spells' has the ECM failed to call? There haven't been any...

[Summer Sun]

 

[DR(S)NO]

15 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

I'm just unsure how we can diss a models output for weather in a week or so time.... Until that weather has or hasn't happened.

[Ali1977]

Not a great afternoon of charts - compared to yesterday anyway , but still looking positive for coldies. What we don't need is the next few runs moving further away from cold. There maybe some complication the computers are struggling with very early on, maybe they will all revert to full on freeze tomorrow - I hope so anyway!! I fully expect an EPS showing 10-15 days as v cold however.

[Purga]

Take a look at the AO forecast to plunge into negative territory

Good indicators are there to be seen.

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Purga
typo

[JOPRO]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Here we go again. Another 'why waste money investing in models when they always get it wrong?' type comment. A lot of which we've had this winter becasue people set too much stall in individual op runs and then wind up disappointed. ECM has never really showed freezing cold but has shown building blocks to that. The ECM, for me, has actually been really good this winter

No I agree money needs to be spent and time needs to be invested in it, but it's dammed hard to call for the uk as we are at the crossroads of so many players in global weather, the Atlantic, the jet stream, the Gulf Stream and tiny variances in these give us vastly different outcomes to our weather. It will come but still with all our advances in computing power we struggle beyond say 5 days. Will we see rock solid two week forecasts in our life time? My dear old grandmother passed away at the age of 93 in May and I used to love discussing with her how technolgie changed in her life time, so I see no reason why we can't improve forecasting models over the next 50 years!

[The PIT]

I'll doubt they'll back track they very rarely do.  As for the high sinking it ends up bang on the uK at T240 so it doesn't sink at all in the end.

[Scandinavian High.]

I no this does not belong here what model do the meto base there long range forecast on .

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Whats the bets come 2nd week of January we have another High pressure system over or very near to us, seems to be the theme so far this winter and the cold stays on mainland Europe...as mentioned getting 'real' cold air over us is proving almost impossible over the last 3 1/3 winters!

Totally agree. This is what I was trying to get across last night, high on top of us has looked like the form horse over the last 24 hours. I think the meto have nailed this one. As they say on their update, only a very slim chance of an easterly.

[karyo]

At 192 hours (ECM) the juicy northwesterly hits Norway with snow showers galore and we get nothing!

 

[LRD]

I know it hasn't won yet but paint it any way you want, the ECM and GFS have both moved to UKMO, if not completely... yet. The UKMO still looks like it would go cold too but it'll take a much longer time. Probably looking at 12-15 Jan for real cold

The UKMO said 'no' to the Dec 2012 freeze when others said 'yes'. But, more positively, it also said 'yes' to the Jan 2013 cold spell when the others weren't convinced. If the movement continues towards UKMO in the morning I think we can call another victory for the mighty UKMO.

Not much talk about MOGREPS and DECIDER on here lately. What time frames do those models look at?

Edited December 30, 2016 by LRD

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I no this does not belong here what model do the meto base there long range forecast on .

Their forecasts are based on a mix of ECM and their own in house longer range models (Glosea), mid term it is usually the ECM ens and again in-house modelling (Mogreps). Of course we can only see a small snapshot of this from the ECM data that is publicly available on various websites.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I no this does not belong here what model do the meto base there long range forecast on .

They take all the models into account, and definitely don't go firm on things beyond medium term. I'm sure their own models are the main source , but ECM and GFS are taken into account.

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Take a look at the AO forecast to plunge into negative terrotory

Good indicators are there to be seen.

 

A negative AO means nothing unless we can get a decent NAO to go with it. The lack of a negative NAO is why the Northerlies have essentially failed, I hope the Scandy High doesnt go the way of the Greenie Highs.

The Met Office ought to sell their programme which models the North Atlantic to the GFS boffins.

[shotski]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A negative AO means nothing unless we can get a decent NAO to go with it. The lack of a negative NAO is why the Northerlies have essentially failed, I hope the Scandy High doesnt go the way of the Greenie Highs.

The Met Office ought to sell their programme which models the North Atlantic to the GFS boffins.

Err, we get a northerly from new years day ????

Edited December 30, 2016 by shotski

[blizzard81]

All this talk about the ukmo winning at 144z is nonsense. If you look at the archives from 2/3 days ago, the ecm ops at days 8 and 9 respectively showed the high sinking into France. The ecm ops only ditched this idea yesterday which "might" have been a mistake, time will tell. It was ecm that spotted the sinking high first.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

has any model gone slippy slippy? A few hrs ago 38 out of 51 suites went for the Shabang COLD outcome, now they have flipped?! Anyone else confused at what the route ahead is? Are the models of any use, are the suites of any use?  We seem to know the MJO isn't.

For me jam is still coming - mid month on for main surge....and potent surge for me. 

 

BFTP

Edited December 30, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

Err we get a northerly from new years day ????

Err, a pretty poor attempt. The lack of a negative NAO ensures it is a very very short affair.

[mulzy]

Keep the faith.  The NAVGEM still has a green light for the second northerly! (I'll get my coat).

[blizzard81]

Just now, mulzy said:

Keep the faith.  The NAVGEM still has a green light for the second northerly! (I'll get my coat).

The final nail in the coffin then.

[shotski]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Err, a pretty poor attempt. The lack of a negative NAO ensures it is a very very short affair.