Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you know I was just looking back at the runs for last Friday and next weekend currently looks more wintry than this one did at that range, both on the op and ens. I wonder if next weekend could end up just as interesting as this one is looking ........

Bluearmy do you think the intense snow accumulations on the ecm are because of 3 seperate lows than the 2 that ukmo and gfs have got at 48 hours!!looks more elongated aswell!!

[nick sussex]

Good trends from the GFS and ECM with the troughing disrupting to the west at T168 and T192hrs , energy heading se'wards.

A chance we could see our Scandi friend pop up in future runs if this continues.

Edited December 8, 2017 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Bluearmy do you think the intense snow accumulations on the ecm are because of 3 seperate lows than the 2 that ukmo and gfs have got at 48 hours!!looks more elongated aswell!!

not going to waste energy looking into mate it as so variable at this range given the feature hasn't even formed !!

T192 doesn't look like it should given the general chatter on the way forward next week .............. 

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Probably accurate, the South-East misses out again. 

On a serious note, I don't know what algorithms those charts use to determine snow accumulation but they definitely seem well "out there" compared to every other model in existence.

I think a thorough test of these snow charts is coming up. If England shuts down on Monday morning, you'll know you can trust them!!

[pureasthedriven]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed TEITS: with each run that comes along, the emphasis is becoming less and less toward a cold outlook; it's as if the less-cold spells are getting longer whilst the 'Arctic blasts' get fewer and farther between...?

From what I'm seeing, once the early part of next week's out of the way, any cause for celebration fades to almost nothing. Until the time when/if a strong Scandi high develops, of course?

As per today’s MetO long ranger. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good trends from the GFS and ECM with the troughing disrupting to the west at T168 and T192hrs , energy heading se'wards.

A chance we could see our Scandi friend pop up in future runs if this continues.

Yep, the ecm is much much better than the 00 run in the mid term. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good trends from the GFS and ECM with the troughing disrupting to the west , energy heading se'wards.

A chance we could see our Scandi friend pop up in future runs if this continues.

the arctic high profile is quite different from the 00z run which allowed a chunk of vortex to head west from nw Siberia across to Canada. never a good thing for the northern arm

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think a thorough test of these snow charts is coming up. If England shuts down on Monday morning, you'll know you can trust them!!

only if the system verifies like that MWB. 

[Chris K]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Bluearmy do you think the intense snow accumulations on the ecm are because of 3 seperate lows than the 2 that ukmo and gfs have got at 48 hours!!looks more elongated aswell!!

I am wondering whether perhaps it does not take into account any thawing and is a "theoretical" accumulation if it was all to settle straight away? Would it be that simple? 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Shaky do you have a crush on Steve Mirr ??? every run you excitedly ask him a question LMAO 

it was aimed at me, not steve.   steve would have answered !!!

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

it was aimed at me, not steve.   steve would have answered !!!

Saved Steve tonight then LMAO 

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good trends from the GFS and ECM with the troughing disrupting to the west at T168 and T192hrs , energy heading se'wards.

A chance we could see our Scandi friend pop up in future runs if this continues.

Agree Nick I think people aren't realizing the angle of the map in the ECM and just seeing pure westerlies. Also we also keep -4 over us on the 850 charts. So although we lose the -8 and -10 it isn't going to mild.

[kold weather]

Very big uncertainty for Monday, though Sunday's event starting to firm up.

Anyway, the 12z ECM op still showing a good event as well, though the far SE does stay in the rain zone. Any height probably would help, as will be further west (to an extent as I think it will shift SE with time).

 

[Ice Day]

Out in deep FI, but at 240 there some pretty impressive cold building up to the north east.  Now if we could just find a way to get it this way......

[Snowyowl9]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed TEITS: with each run that comes along, the emphasis is becoming less and less toward a cold outlook; it's as if the less-cold spells are getting longer whilst the 'Arctic blasts' get fewer and farther between...?

From what I'm seeing, once the early part of next week's out of the way, any cause for celebration fades to almost nothing. Until the time when/if a strong Scandi high develops, of course?

Feels like the other way around to me the milder air gets downgraded and the cold hangs around for longer fighting the mild air off,with not very special looking charts either the mid atlantic ridge high kicking that jet to the SW,and kicking the lows further south and bringing huge amounts of snow.

[MidnightSnow]

22 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I know this is the MOD thread, but the charts for Sunday into Monday are so complex and changeable the focus of discussion is firmly at this timescale, which is nice to see, I don't think I have seen the term "FI" mentioned for some significant time  

 

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Out in deep FI, but at 240 there some pretty impressive cold building up to the north east.  Now if we could just find a way to get it this way......

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The confidence of no snow south of M4 imo is way too high.  This is a volatile and cold set up we are in with further near time adjustments, changes to come.  Indeed snow accumulations that have happened already surprised many imo

I think Madden needs to do the lottery tomorrow.....I saw back in October he highlighted 7-10 of Dec as a disruptive snow period...no lie.

Models for me showing a further adjustment south..all to play for.  Also the Atlantic ridge for mid month, I think it will manifest in blocking being influential and no westerly flattening

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 8, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[gottolovethisweather]

Aside from worrying about the post-mid week breakdown and who or where will the snowfall be, which parts will see rain etc. How often do you hear the media forecasts state these words for lowland parts of the UK, let alone England? DISRUPTION and SNOW in the same short sentence. The latest Beeb forecast, for instance, reminded me of situations from past classic Winters )and I was born in the 1970s), it is well worth a view again if you haven't seen them. Granted, we're not all going to get the snow, and a few of us might care for it too much but it is what it is and the next few days are FASCINATING to say the very least. Enjoy! 

 

 

Check out the above Fax Chart; it truly is one for the archives. All this within 72 hours as well. The t+60 chart is worth checking out as well. 

 

EDIT: Here's the t+60 Fax Chart, see what I mean.  Bleedin interesting setup, I say. 

 

Edited December 8, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[blizzard81]

Well what an absolutely intriguing ecm op. I really do hope this is the new trend. 

[CanadaAl]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Agree Nick I think people aren't realizing the angle of the map in the ECM and just seeing pure westerlies. Also we also keep -4 over us on the 850 charts. So although we lose the -8 and -10 it isn't going to mild.

I'm glad to see some reasonableness here. All this doom and gloom and we can't even get sunday pinned down yet! as Tamara and GP said, the models will struggle with this potential switch from polar maritime to scandi high. We've even had the 12z give us a bit of a teaser of what could develop from 22nd onwards. 

Some eye candy from the ECM 

 

[bluearmy]

what a day 10 chart hemisperically. the Canadian vortex, starved of renewed low heights early on looks a lot less angry late on and across the other side of the NH, a big ridge is about to head north. would be nice to see the eps follow this theme - split ahead ?????

Edited December 8, 2017 by bluearmy

[chionomaniac]

16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed TEITS: with each run that comes along, the emphasis is becoming less and less toward a cold outlook; it's as if the less-cold spells are getting longer whilst the 'Arctic blasts' get fewer and farther between...?

From what I'm seeing, once the early part of next week's out of the way, any cause for celebration fades to almost nothing. Until the time when/if a strong Scandi high develops, of course?

I'm not seeing that. For me it looks like any westerly mild attack get put back with the emphasis more on any mild weather being watered down as we get each run. The trend is definitely cold with short lived mild rather than what we are used to - mild with short lived cold getting watered down as we close in. If we can keep this trend up and then get a Scandi high as suggested by models and GP/Tamara then who knows........

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

what a day 10 chart hemisperically. the Canadian vortex, starved of renewed low heights early on looks a lot less angry late on and across the other side of the NH, a big ridge is about to head north. would be nice to see the eps follow this theme - split ahead ?????

Absolutely Blue. I can't wait for the ecm ens. 

[CanadaAl]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

what a day 10 chart hemisperically. the Canadian vortex, starved of renewed low heights early on looks a lot less angry late on and across the other side of the NH, a big ridge is about to head north. would be nice to see the eps follow this theme - split ahead ?????

Yeah i honestly think if the ECM went on a few more frames you'd see the signs of a scandi/iceland high start to develop. It's definitely a 'who gets there first' type situation. if the ridge can get ahead of the trough, chances are those lows won't take the high down. Ideally sliders and retrogression later but i'll bank this. 

[nick sussex]

Very happy with both the ECM and GFS in terms of developing some further interest in the run up to Christmas.

The key thing here is to get that trough disruption upstream. It does seem that the outputs over reacted to some eastwards push of the PV as the strongly positive PNA relaxed.

However I'd like to see a few more runs and get that key trough disruption within T144hrs.

The pattern does look condusive to a Scandi high developing as energy digs se. But that's still way ahead.