North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Spah1]

NWS

I'm getting model fatigue and a headache. 

Just want 2 inch of snow and to build a crappy snowman with my 3 yr old. 

None of it looks zonal and in general quite interesting but I've had 3 snow showers all Winter. 

We are always chasing potential charts 7 days away. 

The PM NWly will as per usual be too marginal and give Glosop and the peaks snow and everyone else chasing sleet and hail. 

Getting a bit board with it all. 

Losing enthusiasm  - over and out. 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Spah1

[Day 10]

3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Grey and drizzle in London waiting for flight 

Have a good one, send us a pic when you've finished that wall.

[pip22]

The real reason our Winters rubbish is due to the quietness of the volcanic activity. Theres being no large scale eruptions recently.

I am from now on gonna rely on volcanoes to make our weather colder. Hopefully this year will bring huge change to volcanic activity - more eruptions preferably large scale!!

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by pip22

[Spah1]

23 minutes ago, pip22 said:

The real reason our Winters rubbish is due to the quietness of the volcanic activity. Theres being no large scale eruptions recently.

I am from now on gonna rely on volcanoes to make our weather colder. Hopefully this year will bring huge change to volcanic activity - more eruptions preferably large scale!!

 

 

You’re not serious Pip. 

 

[iand61]

44 minutes ago, pip22 said:

The real reason our Winters rubbish is due to the quietness of the volcanic activity. Theres being no large scale eruptions recently.

I am from now on gonna rely on volcanoes to make our weather colder. Hopefully this year will bring huge change to volcanic activity - more eruptions preferably large scale!!

 

 

Bloody hell pip22 and I thought it was just because we lived at the northern end of the Gulf Stream and it’s endless feed of overheated seawater.

if we have to wait for volcano’s then knowing our luck we’ll just end up with no difference in winter and even more crap summers from it.

[Spurry]

If you didn't laugh you'd cry ..Algeria , North Africa yesterday 

[pip22]

14 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Bloody hell pip22 and I thought it was just because we lived at the northern end of the Gulf Stream and it’s endless feed of overheated seawater.

if we have to wait for volcano’s then knowing our luck we’ll just end up with no difference in winter and even more crap summers from it.

Atleast we get beautiful sunsets.

40 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You’re not serious Pip. 

 

Maybe. A volcanic winter is better than mild mush we get. I know many people will die from ash it will be terrible but realistically we probably won't maybe because of alot of small eruptions. Think on the bright side volcanic winters will bring alot of snow and beautiful sunsets.

Take a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa

 

 

 

 

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, pip22 said:

The real reason our Winters rubbish is due to the quietness of the volcanic activity. Theres being no large scale eruptions recently.

I am from now on gonna rely on volcanoes to make our weather colder. Hopefully this year will bring huge change to volcanic activity - more eruptions preferably large scale!!

 

 

Knowing our luck there will be one hidden under the Pennines and blow us all away

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

NWS

I'm getting model fatigue and a headache. 

Just want 2 inch of snow and to build a crappy snowman with my 3 yr old. 

None of it looks zonal and in general quite interesting but I've had 3 snow showers all Winter. 

We are always chasing potential charts 7 days away. 

The PM NWly will as per usual be too marginal and give Glosop and the peaks snow and everyone else chasing sleet and hail. 

Getting a bit board with it all. 

Losing enthusiasm  - over and out. 

Understandable ..its not been that snowy here but it has been frosty at times.

Next week could be interesting but again altitude will be needed.how much altitude im not sure.

[northwestsnow]

Things starting to look interesting next week!!

Yes its a long time away but both EC/GFS promoting a cold north wester - we need to hope whats currently modelled at 144 onwards is reliable - dare i say it might not even by an altitude only situation- EC snow depth charts (unreliable at 144 onwards i know) have a signal for lying snow across much of the region.

A i say, still far out to be confident but if we can todays GFS/EC charts down to 96hrs i suspect this thread may well be very busy next week..

No downgrades now models!!

[WillinGlossop]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Things starting to look interesting next week!!

Yes its a long time away but both EC/GFS promoting a cold north wester - we need to hope whats currently modelled at 144 onwards is reliable - dare i say it might not even by an altitude only situation- EC snow depth charts (unreliable at 144 onwards i know) have a signal for lying snow across much of the region.

A i say, still far out to be confident but if we can todays GFS/EC charts down to 96hrs i suspect this thread may well be very busy next week..

No downgrades now models!!

Would be nice to get a decent snowfall (over six inches) before I go to Spain for a long weekend break (25th January) 

[northwestsnow]

Meto update is crap.

Sounds like its high ground that sees the snow, and even there its not going to be guaranteed going off exeters update, they are either being conservative at this juncture or its just not going to be cold enough...

[James M]

With a moist airflow off the Atlantic, we will probably struggle to get lying snow at low levels and to the west of the region, especially with uppers  only -5 or -6. But you never know, it's better than mild SW'rlys at any rate!

[itsnowjoke]

Cold damp day horrible 

[Mokidugway]

27c here blue skies sat by pool with beer 

[Chris.R]

Minimum overnight 1.8°C, currently 3.6°C. 

At this time of year for falling snow here  from a maritime source I need: 

At 850s above -6 - a trough/shortwave bringing prolonged torrential precipitation for at least 1 hour dropping the 2m temperature to below 1.7°C  with at least a slight element of an off-shore wind on its back edge. 

 

At 850s between -6 and -8 - thicknesses of 519 dam or less; negative dew points; a 2m temperature below 1.7°C; a slack flow; and/or a trough/sshort-wave with prolonged precipitation ideally backing wins of—shore on its back edge.

 At 850s between -8 and -10 - thicknesses of 525 dam or less and/or a slack flow and/or negative dew points. 

 At 850s below -10 falling snow is almost a certainty. 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Chris.R

[itsnowjoke]

3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

27c here blue skies sat by pool with beer 

Sat round the fire with a beer 

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Sat round the fire with a beer 

 

3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

27c here blue skies sat by pool with beer 

Just sat with a beer 

[iand61]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

 

Just sat with a beer 

Just sat with the remnants of flu and no beer.

[iand61]

22 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Knowing our luck there will be one hidden under the Pennines and blow us all away

No chance, it’ll just give us a mild sector while the rest of the country gets buried in snow.

[Mokidugway]

Distant thunderstorms over the Anconcagua range , nice,  beer 8 

Edited January 9, 2018 by Mokidugway

[damianslaw]

For those speculating over details of possible snow next week from the projected model offer on show - I probably wouldn't bother at such a range. Thicknesses, timing of any trough frontal features, strength of wind, dewpoints, rate of precipitation all come into play when it comes to snowfall, and as the period between christmas and new year showed, low uppers are not needed to produce low level snowfall. 

I remember late Jan 2015 and early Feb 2015 we had a number of marginal snowfalls mostly in the evening under less than cold uppers on a NW feed - this time around I suspect things would be far more conducive for low level snow than then, but that's just my hunch - there is a significant pool of cold air lurking to our NW over Canada.

In the meantime a rather lacklustre few days ahead, very average, with not much weather to discuss, could be quite foggy on Thursday and Friday and it will feel raw and cold, like today, Saturday also looks cold. Tomorrow looks a decent day though. A dreary spell of weather overall for what is the most dreary week of the year in my book in overall feel. 

[Spah1]

30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

For those speculating over details of possible snow next week from the projected model offer on show - I probably wouldn't bother at such a range. Thicknesses, timing of any trough frontal features, strength of wind, dewpoints, rate of precipitation all come into play when it comes to snowfall, and as the period between christmas and new year showed, low uppers are not needed to produce low level snowfall. 

I remember late Jan 2015 and early Feb 2015 we had a number of marginal snowfalls mostly in the evening under less than cold uppers on a NW feed - this time around I suspect things would be far more conducive for low level snow than then, but that's just my hunch - there is a significant pool of cold air lurking to our NW over Canada.

In the meantime a rather lacklustre few days ahead, very average, with not much weather to discuss, could be quite foggy on Thursday and Friday and it will feel raw and cold, like today, Saturday also looks cold. Tomorrow looks a decent day though. A dreary spell of weather overall for what is the most dreary week of the year in my book in overall feel. 

Normally we are moaning the cold is early December or late March but this time there are no excuses. It’s the heart of Winter and if it’s not cold enough next week, cold zonal will never, ever deliver. 

[Spah1]

The biggest slider in the history of all weather. 

Will correct South ?

[More Runs Needed]

A Pm flow would surely give us better snow chances than an Easterly flow, yes?

Is everyone in the mod thread from the south east and East 

Even so the continent looks too warm