North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[iand61]

17 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

I've got my virtual sledge at the ready iand61

I needed a couple of new tyres on my car so took the plunge and went for all seasons ones.

with all this potential about you can’t be to careful but with these on and my virtual shovel in the boot i’m sorted.

just hope it’s not the wrong type of potential that falls.

[Day 10]

Hope you got yourself a very expensive virtual car, with good virtual snow tyres to go with your virtual shovel, sledge, hat, coat, scarf & gloves! Virtual snow can be very deep!

Edited January 10, 2018 by Day 10

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Hope you got yourself a very expensive virtual car, with good virtual snow tyres to go with your virtual shovel, sledge, hat, coat, scarf & gloves! Virtual snow can be very deep!

More likely to have a virtual flood.

[iand61]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Hope you got yourself a very expensive virtual car, with good virtual snow tyres to go with your virtual shovel, sledge, hat, coat, scarf & gloves! Virtual snow can be very deep!

Tell me about it, the amount of potential i’ve cleared off the drive this winter is unbelievable.

some mornings I couldn’t move for the damn stuff.

[itsnowjoke]

20 minutes ago, iand61 said:

I needed a couple of new tyres on my car so took the plunge and went for all seasons ones.

with all this potential about you can’t be to careful but with these on and my virtual shovel in the boot i’m sorted.

just hope it’s not the wrong type of potential that falls.

Have you got your virtual scarf hat and gloves plus your sledge virtual salt etc

[itsnowjoke]

15 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Tell me about it, the amount of potential i’ve cleared off the drive this winter is unbelievable.

some mornings I couldn’t move for the damn stuff.

I'm fed up with sweeping rain lol

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Have you got your virtual scarf hat and gloves plus your sledge virtual salt etc

I've already asked him that lol. Great minds!

Edited January 10, 2018 by Day 10

[cheshire snow]

29 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Hope you got yourself a very expensive virtual car, with good virtual snow tyres to go with your virtual shovel, sledge, hat, coat, scarf & gloves! Virtual snow can be very deep!

You Naughty person Day 10

That is weather Porn.

C.S

[Spah1]

Most of us don’t live 300m asl though!!!!!

More rain it is then. 

Can’t ever remember getting snow off cold zonal weather. Always too marginal. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Prayer mats out for GFS then!!

Think EC would be cold hard rain away from hefty elevation- again, Will, Ian , Frosty etc might JUST be high enough to see snow- with an unstable flow off the irish sea it could be spectacular on high ground..

[Carl46Wrexham]

My driveway has only just (finally) dried up. Ground is still wet and waterlogged in places.

Dont fancy a NW'ly cold rainfest.

 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Most of us don’t live 300m asl though!!!!!

More rain it is then. 

Can’t ever remember getting snow off cold zonal weather. Always too marginal. 

If 300m doesn't cut it we have holmfirth Road through Greenfield (up the road from Doverstones res which reaches 489m above sea level- a mere 1400feet -

There will be drifts very very high up there next week!!

 

 

Edited January 10, 2018 by northwestsnow

[WillinGlossop]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

17 inches by Friday next week on ec....yes please! Hehe ? 

Yes dovestones, Buxton are probably best if it’s not snowing in your neck of the woods....

sawn up three trees today so I’m ok for firewood for log burner the next six months or more.... 

hopefully at least the hills will be white, probably a 90% guarantee.... 

Edited January 10, 2018 by WillinGlossop

[damianslaw]

Surprised how people dismiss an unstable cold NW airstream in this region in terms of snow prospects, it is the best direction to get heavy convection and evaporative cooling which can turn a marginal event into a major one in no time. As I said yesterday, snow is notoriously difficult to predict, too many factors at play that only become apparent in the event so to speak. We manage snow showers off NW airstreams in March and April, so why not mid Jan - optimum time. Much does depends on dewpoints, but I'm tiring a little of the pessimism creeping into many posters comments dismissing possibilities at every turn well for anything it seems.

 

[frosty ground]

What is being forcast next wrek is not your typical westerly it is cold from top to bottom and will kick of some serioulsy big and probably thundary showers. 

Edited January 10, 2018 by frosty ground

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how people dismiss an unstable cold NW airstream in this region in terms of snow prospects, it is the best direction to get heavy convection and evaporative cooling which can turn a marginal event into a major one in no time. As I said yesterday, snow is notoriously difficult to predict, too many factors at play that only become apparent in the event so to speak. We manage snow showers off NW airstreams in March and April, so why not mid Jan - optimum time. Much does depends on dewpoints, but I'm tiring a little of the pessimism creeping into many posters comments dismissing possibilities at every turn well for anything it seems.

 

100% agree Damian.

I am going to take a break from posting for a few days now,and keep an eye on the Models.

Think I am getting to old to  do with all the will it wont it That will be going on in the next few days.

C.S

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

17 inches by Friday next week on ec....yes please! Hehe ? 

That will make the Etherow fountain hit 20 feet vertically.  You never know, we might have our own frozen Niagra.

[WillinGlossop]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how people dismiss an unstable cold NW airstream in this region in terms of snow prospects, it is the best direction to get heavy convection and evaporative cooling which can turn a marginal event into a major one in no time. As I said yesterday, snow is notoriously difficult to predict, too many factors at play that only become apparent in the event so to speak. We manage snow showers off NW airstreams in March and April, so why not mid Jan - optimum time. Much does depends on dewpoints, but I'm tiring a little of the pessimism creeping into many posters comments dismissing possibilities at every turn well for anything it seems.

 

A couple of years ago had really heavy constant snow showers that gave thundersnow and had one day we had six inches fall in a few hours during the day, then one night we had 27cm with really heavy thunder snow.... that was from a nwly showery regime in February.... 

[Had Worse]

Just now, WillinGlossop said:

A couple of years ago had really heavy constant snow showers that gave thundersnow and had one day we had six inches fall in a few hours during the day, then one night we had 27cm with really heavy thunder snow.... that was from a nwly showery regime in February.... 

I remeber that, thundersnow at its best.

[WillinGlossop]

Just now, Had Worse said:

I remeber that, thundersnow at its best.

I trudged through Hadfield/padfield in the snow as I was renovating a house at the time and walking up a slippy post street in six inches was a struggle with wallpaper in hand.... but it was the huge flakes that were mesmerising huge clumps of fluffy snow that never seemed like it was going to end....

[Spah1]

20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how people dismiss an unstable cold NW airstream in this region in terms of snow prospects, it is the best direction to get heavy convection and evaporative cooling which can turn a marginal event into a major one in no time. As I said yesterday, snow is notoriously difficult to predict, too many factors at play that only become apparent in the event so to speak. We manage snow showers off NW airstreams in March and April, so why not mid Jan - optimum time. Much does depends on dewpoints, but I'm tiring a little of the pessimism creeping into many posters comments dismissing possibilities at every turn well for anything it seems.

 

Well if you’re that confident then i’ll wait and see ?

[iand61]

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised how people dismiss an unstable cold NW airstream in this region in terms of snow prospects, it is the best direction to get heavy convection and evaporative cooling which can turn a marginal event into a major one in no time. As I said yesterday, snow is notoriously difficult to predict, too many factors at play that only become apparent in the event so to speak. We manage snow showers off NW airstreams in March and April, so why not mid Jan - optimum time. Much does depends on dewpoints, but I'm tiring a little of the pessimism creeping into many posters comments dismissing possibilities at every turn well for anything it seems.

 

Sorry but you can’t blame folks for being pessimistic when the form horse is for everything remotely interesting to downgrade into mediocrity.

i haven’t looked at the models close enough to give a honest opinion but if what others are saying comes close to true then we could/should be looking at a decent wintry spell with plenty of snow for the lucky few.

as for myself, i’m refusing to get overly excited at least until it enters the reliable timescales or better still until I see heavy driving snow falling.

to many last minute let downs turn you into this and it is, after all only the weather.

[Day 10]

27 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

A couple of years ago had really heavy constant snow showers that gave thundersnow and had one day we had six inches fall in a few hours during the day, then one night we had 27cm with really heavy thunder snow.... that was from a nwly showery regime in February.... 

I need to move to Buxton, you really do live in a different snow world to the rest of us.

[Chris.R]

10 hours ago, Day 10 said:

When we had the cold north to northwesterlies about a month ago they didn't really deliver here, mainly sleet & hail. However back then the Irish sea temperature was running at 8.9C (a little below average) but not great for us near the coast. Next week it's looking more and more like a pretty cold spell of northwesterly winds with showers, now I wouldn't normally get too bothered by it but again the Irish sea is running a little below average only this time it is now reading 7.2C a big difference! A better chance then for us on the coast if this setup verifies. Watching with interest.

 I was going to mention this. Noticed it was down to 7.2°C, average I think was 7.5°C. Still not convinced, don’t think the 850s are cold enough, but anything can happen I suppose with prolonged precipitation so let’s wait and see.  

[damianslaw]

I've learnt to expect the unexpected - always the best option, probability of throwing the dice might favour the rolling of a sum of six rather than twelve, but to dismiss the chances is foolish - and that's my last word. In anything you do and in any situation you might think you are in control, but none of us are, and that goes with the weather!