Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[seabreeze86]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM actually has the least impressive polar profile there

ECM looked promising at 120 hrs but couldn’t join the Arctic high to wedge of heights like the UKMO did. Disappointing. Mainly because I wanted to see what the UKMO would go onto look like at 192hrs would be some real eye candy 

Edited December 7, 2020 by seabreeze86

[That ECM]

Would someone be kind enough to put the t168 Ukmo chart up please? Also a link please as I’ve lost it again

[IDO]

I am still unsure why the T144 chart is exciting, one low undercuts but this is halted as a plumb climbs the eastern edge of the trough:

ecm t144> gem> 

On all models this warms out the undercutting replacing it with heights! I am not sure how we can get further undercutting from this. To me, the models have made their mind up? This will mean only one direction the cut-off low can move to?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

ECM looked promising at 120 hrs but couldn’t join the Arctic high to wedge of heights like the UKMO did. Disappointing 

We're looking out towards the days 10-20 timeframe for the point of interest. Anything before is unlikely

[swfc]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

I am still unsure why the T144 chart is exciting, one low undercuts but this is halted as a plumb climbs the eastern edge of the trough:

ecm t144> gem> 

On all models this warms out the undercutting replacing it with heights! I am not sure how we can get further undercutting from this. To me, the models have made their mind up? This will mean only one direction the cut-off low can move to?

Yes it's evident at 192 hrs and before. One run but nothing out of the ordinary on ec today imo.block remains strong to the east. Guess it will be a ukmo at 144 hrs call 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We're looking out towards the days 10-20 timeframe for the point of interest. Anything before is unlikely

Hi crewe. If that's the case why is the ec following the ukmo at 144 hrs being touted with interest ??? Tia

Edited December 7, 2020 by swfc

[SMU]

Close but no cigar on this run > we need more heights over the top like UKMO 144!

[Day 10]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM actually has the least impressive polar profile there

Yeah, UKMO the pick of the 3 so it must be correct

[frosty ground]

22 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Im speachless if this is good .... hope im wrong, but really ?. ..and please dont reply as to what might happen if this or that was to happen, im commenting on what it shows.

 

Ecm 144

 

Why ask a question if your gonna limit the answer?

 

@swfc

im not sure why you’re  are confused 

if someone posts a chart based on potential then that’s what’s it’s based on. Asking for an opinion to be justified with being allowed to use the reason for that opinion is a little silly.

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by frosty ground

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Hi crewe. If that's the case why is the ec following the ukmo at 144 hrs being touted??? Tia

UKMO is the outlier tonight and offers a faster route to cold. This would be a bonus though as it certainly was not anticipated. The likes of Catacol and Chiono have consistently plumped for a time closer to Christmas week for the potential.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it's evident at 192 hrs and before. One run but nothing out of the ordinary on ec today imo.block remains strong to the east. Guess it will be a ukmo at 144 hrs call 

I have an issue with d6 UKMO charts when heights are seemingly being overplayed -v- the rest!

That Nov 20 low-correlation is highlighted in the d6 chart -v- reality for that date! I thought this was broached the last few years with UKMO having issues in this regard?

[blizzard81]

Ecm becomes the grinch in one foul swoop. 

[Weathizard]

Iberian low but that eastern block is just a monster, it’s frustrating that we have some of the ingredients for a cold spell but just can’t quite put them together.

[mountain shadow]

Jeezo. That ECM was a right kick in the proverbial.

Hopefully a huge outlier. 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO is the outlier tonight and offers a faster route to cold. This would be a bonus though as it certainly was not anticipated. The likes of Catacol and Chiono have consistently plumped for a time closer to Christmas week for the potential.

How can it not be anticipated? Its like all output subject to change. Isn't it more likely than thoughts on 14 days away. I'd be thinking the meto would be commenting on it. I may have missed if so I apologise. Ec looks to be a bit more active anyway but the block remains going forward

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm becomes the grinch in one foul swoop. 

is that after his heart grew two sizes? 

[blizzard81]

What happens next?

[LRD]

ECM 240 - looks very poor 

But the Hemisphere view is more promising. What would/will happen to that arctic high?

Won't look like this at Day 10 of course

Edited December 7, 2020 by LRD

[chionomaniac]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am content with the slow building blocks put in place so far - in fact far happier that no Armageddon type scenarios are shown at day 10 which unduly raise up hopes. The critical issue here is how strong any trop wave 2 activity is. The stronger and more it penetrates towards the middle strat, the better. Just not seeing the strength quite yet, hence the stalling and dissipating Atlantic troughs without the undercut. 

[Skullzrulerz]

First the GFS was the bad model now the ECM is the Grinch

It seems we are flip flopping at the moment and all of a sudden the UKMO is king though it doesn't quite make it this time around 

At least we have then pub run to go

[PolarWarsaw]

I think one of the main reasons there's been a bit of confusion in here that has lead to the bickering in here recently is that some members, those who understand less/have little experience with charts are using some of the comments here as gospel. 

Let's not forget we have now been discussing a cold spell in this thread in a positive light since roughly the middle of last month. It is now the 7th of December and for all bar 0.000001% of the population, nobody has seen falling or settling snow. It has become clear to me, that we will not see widespread falling snow for at least the next 14 days. To me that's a 5 week wait for absolutely zero reward and takes 5 potentially snowy weeks off the table.

We need to be very careful here, that we aren't doing what we ended up doing a couple of winters back. Where there was a similar spell around this time and then the entire of this topic was full steam ahead on a SSW, which eventually happened and delivered zero cold and snow for our shores. It's easy to get caught up in what might happen in a couple of weeks time. The be all and end all here is that IMO, at the surface all of these pretty patterns and great starting positions are as useless as a Bartlett or the Atlantic (other than for keeping this thread more interesting) and unless they deliver sooner rather than later you can end up spending an entire winter flattering to deceive. 

With all of that being said, we are certainly in a much more positive starting point than we are in most December's which is the basis for the active/positive nature of this thread. 

To summarise for those who aren't that great with Chart reading;

- Chilly but mostly damp and miserable for the next few days.

- Milder spell that could be brief or less so. This could also increase the amount of rain we receive. 

- Not cold enough for snow in AT LEAST the next 10-14 days. 

- Good starting position heading towards the end of the month to bring in something more snowy, with no guarantees and a lot of luck needed.

Edited December 7, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I don’t know about anyone else, but I am content with the slow building blocks put in place so far - in fact far happier that no Armageddon type scenarios are shown at day 10 which unduly raise up hopes. The critical issue here is how strong any trop wave 2 activity is. The stronger and more it penetrates towards the middle strat, the better. Just not seeing the strength quite yet, hence the stalling and dissipating Atlantic troughs without the undercut. 

Yep!

Perfectly happy with the ECM day 10. Signs of the TPV starting to split bang on cue tbh. Anything showing before day 10 is pie in the sky stuff.

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What happens next?

The Euro high extends North to join the Arctic high? 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

First the GFS was the bad model now the ECM is the Grinch

It seems we are flip flopping at the moment and all of a sudden the UKMO is king though it doesn't quite make it this time around 

At least we have then pub run to go

Good. A bit of model uncertainty and inconsistency means we are in with a shout of cold and are in the game. We might lose the game, of course, but better a possible defeat than a guaranteed one where flat, zonal charts are dominating with no end in sight for weeks

[SLEETY]

The ukmo day 6 charts never seem to verify, and always change next run, for the worse especially if a cold outlook is being shown. 

Remember how it backtracked a few days ago with showing the Atlantic pushing through on the day 6 chart only to change to Atlantic not making it on the next run.