Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We are so so close to something special.

North Pole view is good too. The Russia/Kazakh high (Russakh? Kazsia) needs to move out of the way or join that pressure build to Greenland's East and bingo

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 24 hr change from 150 >>> 126 on the 12z

Just looked at the 12z and its a significant adjustment from the 6z, never mind 24 hours ago, first person that sprung to mind was you, Mr Murr, i think from now on the best way to explain the GFS though, rather than us just lambasting it, is to just except in the 96-168 range in these blocked situations, it is just 24-48 hours behind, depending on the complexity of setup and energy placement.

[mountain shadow]

If we factor in the GFS zonal bias and inability to split jet energy, even this shows potential at t+168...

[SLEETY]

Stunning ukmo.The Arctic High could well make an imapct sooner than thought.

As for gfs last 48 hours

 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by SLEETY

[feb1991blizzard]

Also, remember this bowling ball low will more than likely encounter some trough disruption, and be elongated NW to SE by the time it gets to 96.

So this chart could be a whole lot better at T0.

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not sure why I can't post images again.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020120712/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

You can only embed secure images (ones which start with https rather than http). EG:

Alternatively, you can save them to your device and upload them, which to be honest is the best way to do it as it then ensures the image doesn't update or get removed at some point. 

[IDO]

On this run a better wedge injected towards Greenland from the Russian high before that is eased east:

Also, the Arctic wedge is better defined. The ebb and flow of pieces will probably mean the earlier modelled nascent Atlantic ridge will be less angular so I am unsure whether that is good or bad going forward?

A variation on the theme but I still see the tectonics of that Arctic high drowning out any beast from the east, but a nice wedge is always a bonus!

[frosty ground]

Looks like a lot of cold air is about to be thrown at Scandi

[chionomaniac]

13 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Don’t forget everyone that invisible brick wall I highlighted last night - the one that Atlantic systems cannot cross due to the split. They go under or north or dissipate 

Perfect example here of an Atlantic system dissipating as it hits the invisible brick wall

 

Edited December 7, 2020 by chionomaniac

[mountain shadow]

The GFS cannot compute why the lows are not moving East, so has decided to give up and stall them near us infinitum. 

[Mucka]

Nice link up of the arctic high and Scandi ridge. Give me an Atlantic ridge to go with that and we would clicking our heels.

Relying on an Arctic high and Scandi ridge to develop a cold patter alone will offer plenty of model thread drama but not necessarily cold.

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The GFS cannot compute why the lows are not moving East, so has decided to give up and stall them near us infinitum. 

check @chionomaniac 's post right above yours for an explanation

Edited December 7, 2020 by ArHu3

[LRD]

Arctic High looks significant at this stage (210 hrs)

If it could just move towards Europe and place itself over East Greenland and Iceland for 8 weeks that'd be just lovely. Trouble is they are very difficult to model

[ITSY]

A pile up of north atlantic lows, just ramming into the back of each other as they come against the european block and gradual height rises north and east. Not a cold setup but a holding pattern, albeit a wet one for some in the western reaches of our isles...

 

[SLEETY]

Minus 28 hpa moving into Scandenavia,lets hope it moves SW towards the UK.Extremly cold uppers for December now appearing.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

check @chionomaniac 's post right above yours for an explanation

I know, but the gfs stubbornly refusing to send any energy South East.

[ITSY]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Minus 28 hpa moving into Scandenavia,lets hope it moves SW towards the UK.Extremly cold uppers for December now appearing.

It needs to - once you dig south beneath scandinavia and western russia, nowhere in our side of the hemisphere is (by +230) under less than -2 uppers. Quite the feat given the general background - hopefully a necessary stepping stone though to advect heights northbound

Edited December 7, 2020 by ITSY

[Penicuikblizzard]

37 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, Throwoff, it can get rather tiresome at times... But, we're not confined to 1947 reduxes -- 1963 looms large too!

To my 'expert' eyes, another '1947' is even less likely than Spurs winning the domestic double.. And, how likely is that!

Just a 2 week cold spell with plenty snow will do not bothered whether it’s a 47 or 63

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I know, but the gfs stubbornly refusing to send any energy South East.

At the moment. The GFS and I suspect other models will not have worked out if, where and how strong any split will be. Currently the Atlantic end of any GFS potential split looks a bit like the Nile’s delta

[That ECM]

Don’t think anyone wants to follow chino excellent posts in fear of comparison. So I’ll get it going.

 

look at the pretty colours.

[SLEETY]

Just delete this gfs run,its just an utter mess in the latter stages,,not worth even looking at anymore.

 

[ITSY]

I find this such a weird and unusual chart. No genuine northern latitude blocking yet also No Atlantic. Strangely spooky, everything just...goes quiet...


 

Edited December 7, 2020 by ITSY

[bluearmy]

gem looks like it has sussed that it needs to head se by day 10 

it wont pan out like that but you can see the background patterns beginning to play out as heights rise to our north

Edited December 7, 2020 by bluearmy

[Mark Parsons]

3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

I find this such a weird and unusual chart. No blocking yet No Atlantic. Strangely spooky, everything just...goes quiet...


 

Agreed, that chart is just nonsense, it's missing a raging jet!

[bluearmy]

even the 12z gfs op having lost its way in week 2 would head v cold in week 3