Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[blizzard81]

15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not saying this will happen, but shades of Dec 2000 christmas week.. 

That would be nice. I fondly remember the boxing day snowfall that year...... Which stayed for a while. 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

FWIW, tonight's extended JMA (which was similar to UKMO in earlier stages) went on to become quite promising. 

Thanks, I think yesterdays would have too, had it not got stuck at T192 and never finished.  Well worth noting as JMA and UKMO are models from the same stable (both developed by UKMO).  

[Daniel*]

Post of the day @Uncertainy 
 

The way I see it people are visibly frustrated let’s say last winter was cold and snowy I feel the mood of thread would be much more relaxed, it has been almost 8 years !!! in London & SE where we had a protracted cold spell some people think we just can’t get cold spells anymore, all this disappointment has built up over years. It isn’t sustainable what we find ourself in. No one was comparing to December 2010 it has just been a while since December has given so much potential. You can’t say there’s nothing to look out for right now, this thread would be dead otherwise. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

10 minutes ago, Stevie B said:

Quick question and sorry as it’s definitely off topic, but where is Knocker? 

Hi Stevie,

From what we gathered, he’s been taking a long break from the place. Has re-appeared one or two times fairly recently, but other than that we don’t know much else. His model posts were appreciated by a lot of people, so was a shame to have him leave. I imagine he had his reasons though

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bit surprised that we’ve had a long run of gfs ops which haven’t reflected one of the more amplified gefs members that have a decent representation each suite in fi .....

I think the chances of something notably wintry for Xmas is receding fast and we will soon be looking beyond that period towards new year 

I certainly wouldn't worry about gfs ops not showing wintry heaven for Xmas at 15 days out. I would be more worried if they did. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I certainly wouldn't worry about gfs ops not showing wintry heaven for Xmas at 15 days out. I would be more worried if they did. 

Plus, there’s a good chance these wintry scenarios would get watered down, or snatched away from us, (apart from the odd rarer occasion). 

[Anthony Burden]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bit surprised that we’ve had a long run of gfs ops which haven’t reflected one of the more amplified gefs members that have a decent representation each suite in fi .....

I think the chances of something notably wintry for Xmas is receding fast and we will soon be looking beyond that period towards new year 

That of course is possible,but the charts can turn very quickly especially at 240 hrs all to play for still.

[ghoneym]

Arctic High modelling is a problem from what I can see. I'm willing to wait 36-48 hrs until it is actually in position to see what happens.  Add poorly plotted MJO forecasts into the mix and we have a clustertruck. Massive changes will happen within 15 days, of that I have no doubt.  

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I certainly wouldn't worry about gfs ops not showing wintry heaven for Xmas at 15 days out. I would be more worried if they did. 

 

Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Plus, there’s a good chance these wintry scenarios would get watered down, or snatched away from us, (apart from the odd rarer occasion). 

missing the point ....... gfs isn’t all bad as a model and if a more wintry period is in the distance then some of the gefs will pick it and the ops will reflect that from time to time ......I just think it’s significant that we haven’t seen that for at least four runs when at least 25% of the gefs are showing amplified solutions 

my experience with gfs ops is that once they persist with a fairly mobile pattern then it rarely flips back .......

we aren’t past the point of no return yet .....

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Post of the day @Uncertainy 
 

The way I see it people are visibly frustrated let’s say last winter was cold and snowy I feel the mood of thread would be much more relaxed, it has been almost 8 years !!! in London & SE where we had a protracted cold spell some people think we just can’t get cold spells anymore, all this disappointment has built up over years. It isn’t sustainable what we find ourself in. No one was comparing to December 2010 it has just been a while since December has given so much potential. You can’t say there’s nothing to look out for right now, this thread would be dead otherwise. 

That's not true for Dover, although it was in march last year, it was quite long lasting for us.

[BlueHedgehog074]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

missing the point ....... gfs isn’t all bad as a model and if a more wintry period is in the distance then some of the gefs will pick it and the ops will reflect that from time to time ......I just think it’s significant that we haven’t seen that for at least four runs when at least 25% of the gefs are showing amplified solutions 

my experience with gfs ops is that once they persist with a fairly mobile pattern then it rarely flips back .......

we aren’t past the point of no return yet .....

True, I think there’s a chance anything could happen really. Could stay stuck with a fairly mobile pattern, but other options couldn’t be ruled out. Interestingly, GFS has been one of those models that could pick up a particular pattern in FI (something like a cold Easterly), drop it and then bring it back again in a closer time-frame. 

It does seem a little odd the operational runs haven’t followed some of the other ideas that the GEFS suit shows. Perhaps tomorrow might change that, otherwise as you say, the GFS operational runs could just stick with its fairly mobile pattern

Edited December 10, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Typos

[ghoneym]

I hate to admit that the CFS is correct but I think it is right now, make your own mind up....

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by ghoneym
.

[Geordiesnow]

46 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Post of the day @Uncertainy 
 

The way I see it people are visibly frustrated let’s say last winter was cold and snowy I feel the mood of thread would be much more relaxed, it has been almost 8 years !!! in London & SE where we had a protracted cold spell some people think we just can’t get cold spells anymore, all this disappointment has built up over years. It isn’t sustainable what we find ourself in. No one was comparing to December 2010 it has just been a while since December has given so much potential. You can’t say there’s nothing to look out for right now, this thread would be dead otherwise. 

8 years!? Where were you when the beast from the east happened? 

Either way, I think the issue is sometimes we hype up potential too much in this thread when the charts do show differently. I personally see little point in posting GFS charts which are like 300 hours away and will change on the next run regardless what it show. People were in denial the Atlantic was returning and the charts are now showing it very much is returning and has already really. I did worry right at the start of the month of instead of getting a potential northerly from the Atlantic ridge that it would be a missed opportunity and whilst some people did get snowfall, it was transient and not long lasting. 

The main trends are the Euro heights are increasing, there will be an Arctic high dominating and the jet stream on a SW-NE'ly track so in general quite mild at times. Very very little polar maritime air in the forecast in truthness. 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[Day_9]

Where can we see verification stats?  Have had more frosty mornings here on the s wales riviera this year than have seen for a good few years

[Daniel*]

23 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

8 years!? Where were you when the beast from the east happened? 

Either way, I think the issue is sometimes we hype up potential too much in this thread when the charts do show differently. I personally see little point in posting GFS charts which are like 300 hours away and will change on the next run regardless what it show. People were in denial the Atlantic was returning and the charts are now showing it very much is returning and has already really. I did worry right at the start of the month of instead of getting a potential northerly from the Atlantic ridge that it would be a missed opportunity and whilst some people did get snowfall, it was transient and not long lasting. 

The main trends are the Euro heights are increasing, there will be an Arctic high dominating and the jet stream on a SW-NE'ly track so in general quite mild at times. Very very little polar maritime air in the forecast in truthness. 

I said protracted that was merely a week. I had snowfall every single day that week. I live close to central London and well I’ve never known such intense cold so late in season.
 

 

Your final sentence is incorrect the trend is to lower heights in Europe with jet stream sinking more south still unsettled but cooler air in mix.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys

i will make it quick as it's getting late...

no nwp model will forecast what the big day will be at 15 days out,fact

stick to the max at 144 hrs out only as this will save you despair,fact

listen to the more knowledgeable posters,they know what they are talking about(i am not one of them) he! he! but i know a bit and i take in all of the posters views

trust me it's the same every year in here that peeps get downbeat if the models are not showing winter Narnia charts,that's the rollercoaster about this thread,as the charts show winter Narnia one minute then puff they are gone the next run or the run after

what i will say is that we are in a better position than last winter,we just have to be patient...as always

there have been some good posts again today regardless of the negativity in here, @Uncertainy great post mate

as i said 15 days is a long long way out to determine what the big day will be like in it's self,so sit tight for a few more days yet,the models will struggle with block features yet to come 

JMA 10 hpa not too shabby at day 11

 

well i thought that this post would be quick lol

night guys and don't stress...yet.

 

 

[Timmytour]

I still think there is some fallout from the direct Solar CME hit on earth to come and weather patterns will be disturbed for a little while before they settle down with a lot of model volatility until they do.

That said, although things don't look great on the surface for the short term just at the moment, I think there can still be a lot of optimism about the building blocks that are falling into place, that could end up giving us, in the end, quite a spectacularly cold January and February.

Just a shame it's January and February 2024.  Those darn building blocks are not the quickest! :)  

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Timmytour

[SLEETY]

Reason it doesn't look good at the moment  is that people put too much faith in what GFS is showing on the 2nd page of metiociel after 192 hours, which most of the time never verifies and is a complete waste of time.Doesnt matter if it is showing Day After Tomorrow type scenarios or weather hot enough to melt the ice caps. 

It's only useful upto about 5 days ahead. Ecm isn't a lot better after that timeframe either TBH. 

[Mucka]

4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

More ENS taking a different approach to the phasing of energy upstream.

 

With ECM ensembles trending cooler and a decent cluster going for cold in the run up to Xmas I'm surprised many posters have already given up the ghost.

http://www.meteo24.fr/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

As I said previously it may be no bad thing we haven't been seeing Winter wonderland charts followed by the dross GFS has been churning out as the place would go ballistic.

I thing GFS can be unfairly criticised sometimes and is a decent model if you take its FI bias for zonal into account but it has been abysmal the last 24h IMO, something I alluded to in the morning with its nuclear bomb low it quickly dropped,

It may still be right to a point, cold pre Christmas is pretty scarce but as you point out things could look quite different again in another 24hrs. especially if the ops pick up on the colder signal.

 

 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Reason it doesn't look good at the moment  is that people put too much faith in what GFS is showing on the 2nd page of metiociel after 192 hours, which most of the time never verifies and is a complete waste of time.Doesnt matter if it is showing Day After Tomorrow type scenarios or weather hot enough to melt the ice caps. 

It's only useful upto about 5 days ahead. Ecm isn't a lot better after that timeframe either TBH. 

Keepig  our expectations in check makes the breakthrough even more sensation and I do agree, it's better to keep it real lto avoid tee pain when it changes on the next run!! 

[Daniel*]

Not huge changes in wide scheme of things but positive changes, better weak blocking to north with less west to east movement of lows. 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

Better to see in this view perhaps you notice the trough digging in more into Europe.

[Daniel*]

Seems like quite a large difference strong lack of mild weather on GFS 00z much less than recent runs. You really see its bias for going crazy with lows!!!

 

even wilder difference....

Edited December 11, 2020 by Daniel*

[swfc]

36 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seems like quite a large difference strong lack of mild weather on GFS 00z much less than recent runs. You really see its bias for going crazy with lows!!!

 

even wilder difference....

Yes Daniel. I know Steve Murr has mentioned this quite a lot. I've never really looked into until recently but yes it does look to be spot on. Bit of a mix and match over the last couple of days but I suspect the the hours up to 144 hold they key? 

[West is Best]

Well we're in for a windy and sometimes stormy spell for a bit. All the models agree on this for the next week. Batten down.

Edited December 11, 2020 by West is Best