Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think the low behind the one over us (SW of Greenland), will just blow the wedge away unfortunately

That low on ESB will run over top of that high and flating an already flat profile.

Edited December 10, 2020 by booferking

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And there we have it - its all gone up in smoke.

Also it seems FL starts on the 14th, so looking beyond there is fruitless.

[Captain Shortwave]

Really feels like a case of anything can happen from here, the cold weather win of course is for the Atlantic low to reattach to the deep low heights north of Scandinavia and as such heights can build behind it from the Atlantic. However the low could simply stall and fill or attach to lower heights further west.

Day 8 is surprisingly similar to the 00z run so it will probably drift eastwards with some kind of height rise in the Atlantic.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

No words required...

[dragan]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Also it seems FL starts on the 14th, so looking beyond there is fruitless.

i disagree, i think there is certainly merit in what’s showing beyond the 14th, i’m sure if there was an arctic outbreak on the 15th this place would melt.

Anything beyond 10 days is very much a stretch, but not 4 days away, but it makes for a good discussion 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

No words required...

let's just stick to symbols

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Also it seems FL starts on the 14th, so looking beyond there is fruitless.

yes but like i always say, you would be seeing a number of very cold members if a screaming NE flow was going to happen, i have watched every single set of these between Nov and April for over 10 years now.

[swfc]

Looking at the ec in its latter stages you would say the nhp isn't half bad. The PV is weak and scattered. No real cold but barring the last 7 days over the top runs and excitement it's not the worst wev seen

[LRD]

The arctic high is just sitting there doing about as much as a teenager at 7 in the morning. If it could laugh at us it would

[Mike Poole]

Seen enough of the models, off to the Covid-19 threads for some light relief

[West is Best]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes but like i always say, you would be seeing a number of very cold members if a screaming NE flow was going to happen, i have watched every single set of these between Nov and April for over 10 years now.

With you 100%.

I know it's not popular and I apologise for that. Case of battening down the hatches for a few days I think. Mind you, I am on the north coast of Cornwall so I guess I tend to notice when the Atlantic re-awakens .

[blizzard81]

Ecm much better than yesterday's 12z. Best thing is the constant squashing of the azores high right down towards Africa. I can only see it getting colder and colder from day 10.

Edited December 10, 2020 by blizzard81

[Ali1977]

Still lots going on In the strat that can be seen as positives for coldies, with nothing really jumping out in the models giving a reliable direction of travel.  It’s might be one of those times when we have to sit through several days of crap charts, and hope for a quick flip to a freeze - Xmas week

[Matt H]

ECM 12z about as exciting as the government coronavirus press conferences.

[IDO]

The Arctic high looks great on the UKMO and ECM but it will only matter if it aids a blocking pattern and it has shown no propensity to do anything but loiter at the North Pole sector (viz gefs). That in turn just flattens the pattern of the NH profile!

Anyway, as we have seen from the gefs, the ecm Arctic high looks lost in a sea of inequity:

d10 ecm.. 

If the pros are right and we can expect MJO wave forcing soon, then this can all change at short notice. The models may just be waiting for an uptick in some data variables and we could be looking at whole set of new solutions, even before d10! At the moment it is just the slings and arrows...

[Eagle Eye]

If this carries on much longer then we are heading into the greatest snow drounght crisis since 1881/82 which of course we all remember. 

 

[Djdazzle]

I’m all for looking for positives, but it’s frustrating when posters come out with positives that clearly aren’t there!

A few days ago, some people were saying that a zonal setup was highly unlikely. Zonal is NEVER unlikely as it’s our default setup.

Lookimg for positives on tonight’s runs is akin to polishing a dog turd!

 

 

 

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, XanderP007 said:

If this carries on much longer then we are heading into the greatest snow drounght crisis since 1881/82 which of course we all remember. 

 

I thought for a moment you were referring to my Lilywhite Hotspurs trophy drought seeing as they were formed at that time.

I still feel like a lot of the model runs this evening are reacting to the suppression of the MJO signal for instance GFS is not as high a amplitude as yesterdays update only just out of the COD on 24/12. Let's hope for better MJO forecasts 

Edited December 10, 2020 by Kentspur

[dragan]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

I’m all for looking for positives, but it’s frustrating when posters come out with positives that clearly aren’t there!

A few days ago, some people were saying that a zonal setup was highly unlikely. Zonal is NEVER unlikely as it’s our default setup.

Lookimg for positives on tonight’s runs is akin to polishing a dog turd!

 

 

 

i certainly said for the foreseeable we are looking at a south westerly flow.

As for being a turd polisher, there does looks to be weird things happening in the atlantic with high pressure, of course, that’s the models reading it like that, it could just go back to what we are used to.....for ever 

[swfc]

21 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm much better than yesterday's 12z. Best thing is the constant squashing of the azores high right down towards Africa. I can only see it getting colder and colder from day 10.

I agree there's really not a lot wrong with those charts esp the nhp. PV demolished and Heighths to the south eroded

[Anthony Burden]

A period of at least 7 to 9days with Atlantic lows arriving from our west and stalling 

along with filling and drifting north.North Russian high moving south changing low

pressures areas directions from U.K. to unfavourable for cold weather to take over again.

All waiting for pressure rise to shut this repeat tracking of lows,fingers crossed soon to show

up in the charts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m all for looking for positives, but it’s frustrating when posters come out with positives that clearly aren’t there!

A few days ago, some people were saying that a zonal setup was highly unlikely. Zonal is NEVER unlikely as it’s our default setup.

Lookimg for positives on tonight’s runs is akin to polishing a dog turd!

 

 

 

Especially cherry picking fruitless GFS ensembles! sometimes I think a way of gaining 'likes', never really had a decent op from GFS or EC, only average to mild, but now trending slightly zonal

Edited December 10, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’m all for looking for positives, but it’s frustrating when posters come out with positives that clearly aren’t there!

A few days ago, some people were saying that a zonal setup was highly unlikely. Zonal is NEVER unlikely as it’s our default setup.

Lookimg for positives on tonight’s runs is akin to polishing a dog turd!

 

 

 

It’s the posts making comparisons to 2010 that had me rolling my eyes to the back of my head. There is no comparison at all.

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I thought for a moment you were referring to my Lilywhite Hotspurs trophy drought seeing as they were formed at that time.

I still feel like a lot of the model runs this evening are reacting to the suppression of the MJO signal for instance GFS is not as high a amplitude as yesterdays update only just out of the COD on 24/12. Let's hope for better MJO forecasts 

It's a reference to a Rowan Atkinson stand up. 

[SMU]

Generally content this eve. I will take the UKMO > JMA blend thanks.