Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[SMU]

Afternoon

Lets see where the next instalment takes us with the models.

In terms of getting the deep cold to the UK heres where the wedges need to be > Either or will suffice.

Option 1 is more likely.

Key dates 18-20th

Edited December 10, 2020 by Steve Murr

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 8 on the ICON, the PV is smashed to pieces but unfortunately we aren’t profiting from this - yet. I think we are in a good place, small steps to something colder around Xmas Eve. 

An increasing feeling of ground hog day.  Great NH profiles, upstream locked and loaded and those pesky heights over Europe. 

Just getting a little twitchy that we continue to ride our luck.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon

Lets see where the next instalment takes us with the models.

In terms of getting the deep cold to the UK heres where the wedges need to be > Either or will suffice.

Option 1 is more likely.

Steve I'm not seeing issues upstream, wedges NH profile are all good and tended to have modeled kindly for a few days +  it's those Europe heights.. how the heck do we unpick that puzzle..

[joggs]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon

Lets see where the next instalment takes us with the models.

In terms of getting the deep cold to the UK heres where the wedges need to be > Either or will suffice.

Option 1 is more likely.

Key dates 18-20th

Or the lows could carry on stalling or barreling round in the same spot whilst EU heights stay there.  We would not have any my luck if it wasnt for bad luck.

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

An increasing feeling of ground hog day.  Great NH profiles, upstream locked and loaded and those pesky heights over Europe. 

Just getting a little twitchy that we continue to ride our luck.

As SM has said above it's always been around about the 18th for things to 'hopefully' start to get far more interesting, still only the 10th so a lot of runs between now and then. Nothing has changed in my view.

Edited December 10, 2020 by Day 10

[Howie]

That euro high is a killer 

[danm]

8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Or the lows could carry on stalling or barreling round in the same spot whilst EU heights stay there.  We would not have any my luck if it wasnt for bad luck.

How do they dodge Switzerland then....

[Skullzrulerz]

22 minutes ago, Howie said:

That euro high is a killer 

I think it killed the mood here as well 

[swfc]

Slightly better Heighths "on metiociel" around greenland/svalbard and the esb USA. 126 hrs 

[Skullzrulerz]

If only we had some cold air around and this would produce so much snow 

Instead it will cause flooding 

GFS 

[swfc]

12z gfs now dropping cold 850s into Scandinavia also. Better run imo 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

That’s the 6z though. Six hours is like six weeks in model land. Anything can change!

Thank you. I was looking at 12z but saved 6z somehow.

[Tim Bland]

10 minutes ago, swfc said:

12z gfs now dropping cold 850s into Scandinavia also. Better run imo 

-3 to -6c must be about average for second half of December ?

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Hopefully by the 20th or slightly before when things are deemed to be more "interesting" some better charts occur.

I've been telling myself that since March 2018 

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Hopefully by the 20th or slightly before when things are deemed to be more "interesting" some better charts occur.

 

2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

I've been telling myself that since March 2018 

Knowbody specified the year though

[Skullzrulerz]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

-3 to -6c must be about average for second half of December ?

We must be getting a bit desperate if we just want to see the 0c mark!

Getting a bit odd that we continue to have that things will get more "interesting" in about two weeks and this is said over and over again to never happen 

Unfortunately the GFS hasn't really improved from a cold point of view and I don't think the UKMO is either 

Have to see what the ECM comes up with tonight 

 

[LRD]

Well, er, erm, well we've lost the Central/Eastern European heights 

Trouble is we have southern European ones! 

[jules216]

GFS Op,Control and Ens Up to 204h ugly.More posts in banter thread  speak for everything.Looks like what can go wrong will.It May still change Also to worse=full on zonalita.Spinning lows from ESB and Euro High All too familiar.My expectations are at lowest point this winter so far

Edited December 10, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Empty space snipped

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Well, er, erm, well we've lost the Central/Eastern European heights 

Trouble is we have southern European ones! 

Control is heading the same way but fear not, ec will be epic

[TSNWK]

12z Loses the euro heights to the east at the same as we lose the great NH Profile, with that horrid purple monster to our North west starting to take shape - Maybe thats it? without the shove from the Vortex we are at risk of heights over Europe

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

12z Loses the euro heights to the east at the same as we lose the great NH Profile, with that horrid purple monster to our North west starting to take shape - Maybe thats it? without the shove from the Vortex we are at risk of heights over Europe

My concern is that we've had our front loaded Winter.

[Daniel*]

There’s not a insignificant amount in GEFS which bring deep cold to Scandi I see 10/30 which bring purples to Scandi at day 8 that seems quite a signal for deep cold to our NE.

There’s cold air to be had, can it come our way is the question the answer is we do not know but it’s not likely in next 7-10 days.

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon

Lets see where the next instalment takes us with the models.

In terms of getting the deep cold to the UK heres where the wedges need to be > Either or will suffice.

Option 1 is more likely.

Key dates 18-20th

Key dates 18th-20th which was the time frame that 06z ens dragged the averages considerably below the long term mean for London even had a Cobra run in there dropping to minus 15!

[Eagle Eye]

Sorry for the long post but it seems as if we'll be getting a lot of Lows soon, not expecting much dfference in tmperature hopefully though thes2e models do come to pass.

[booferking]

No hinding it the charts have took a turn for the worse similar story repeating itself year after year getting ever harder for a cold spell on these shores what could go wrong goes wrong looks like we have to wait for the lottery ticket chance for a SSW to happen.