Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Tim Bland]

Here is the full list of ensembles (t850hpa) for 25th. Current odds on cold enough Air For a white Xmas currently circa 10% based on this. Praying for better outputs soon feels like such a waste of a good setup

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, swfc said:

Control showing a white Xmas

for Scotland! S England looks to be under a mild sector

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

How about the mighty Nasa model looks promising with heights about to stretch up towards Southern Greenland and Iceland in time for Christmas week

Blast off from Nasa! 

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not sure why people are jumping to conclusions we’ve known for quite some time it will turn more unsettled and a pathway wouldn’t be immediate unless you take single op as a gospel. The Arctic high hasn’t even formed yet, we aren’t sure about the level of blocking, if there’s going to be a split to PV or not. Need I go on? Tamara said watch for AAM trends I’m not sure what that’s doing, but it’s possible if we see a + surge then the level of blocking would be underestimated in late December. Plus don’t forget the MJO there’s a lot of uncertainties here which we aren’t sure of. Saying weeks of winter is lost is very premature.

AO forecasts continue to go more negative.. suggests unstable polar field to me, very not easy to forecast.

AAM holding about average or just above according to the CFS plot (the only one I have access to):

This is positive for continued blocking to set up, buys some time I think.  Likewise, the strat trop vortex disconnect continues and that also buys time.  NAM plot based on 0z GFS (which wasn’t a particularly good run, I remind you):

But we do need one of two things before time does run out, either for us to get the blocks in the right place rather than the wrong place, or for the strat warming to come good.  Still think we’ve got two maybe three weeks, but if neither of those things happen, what follows might be not very palatable...

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

You know what would happen then though don't you, record heat.

Not sure that's any different.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for Scotland! S England looks to be under a mild sector

Can't have everything

[feb1991blizzard]

And there we have it - its all gone up in smoke.

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for Scotland! S England looks to be under a mild sector

Well aint that a surprise. I'm changing my dam name till summer lol. Freezingman might do it!

[swfc]

Liking the ec at 144 hours

[alexisj9]

31 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I felt UKMO at 144 looked fairly good at broader NH level.. but so did GFS and it went downhill beyond what we can see from UKMO I've not seem GEM and ECM in a bit takes us our to 240 which is where I view the current tipping point.. one way or other 

 

 

 

 

 

What's the GFS 144 chart, any further is too far, especially on the progressive GFS, in a blocked pattern 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, swfc said:

Liking the ec at 144 hours

Shhhhhh!!

[swfc]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Shhhhhh!!

Said liking it, not a lot but liking it

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Liking the ec at 144 hours

Yes, looks like Steve M’s wedge scenario 1:

 

[LRD]

Not very good

Looking to be a wet December if anything

[dragan]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Liking the ec at 144 hours

i hate average weather myself, BORING!!! Each to their own tho.

Cant help but think we are going to see the euro high send warm air up very soon, i hope not tho!

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Liking the ec at 144 hours

If I had a pound for every time a read that!

[booferking]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, looks like Steve M’s wedge scenario 1:

 

Dont worry lows will explode and stagnate over the uk for days.

[Weathizard]

The arctic high looks mighty on the ECM, I still don’t think we’ll get enough of a wedge up here though to deflect the lows SE

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, looks like Steve M’s wedge scenario 1:

 

 

Looks to me like i could be well on the low side with my just over 100mm rain in December, looks like a load of lows just barrelling straight through the UK on a w-e train of energy.

[Vikos]

What we need

 

 

What we actualy have

 

Right now, we can only pray to the god of snow...

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, looks like Steve M’s wedge scenario 1:

 

I think the low behind the one over us (SW of Greenland), will just blow the wedge away unfortunately

[Weathizard]

Just how unlucky do we have to be for us not to find a route to some kind of cold spell from this chart? 
 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

If I had a pound for every time a read that!

Liking the ec at 144 hrs

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

I think the low behind the one over us (SW of Greenland), will just blow the wedge away unfortunately

It does, T168.  Trouble is we are not sorted on the evolution by T144, although today’s output has been mostly rubbish, to be honest.  

[Eagle Eye]

A ridge across the midlands.