Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Seems like quite a large difference strong lack of mild weather on GFS 00z much less than recent runs. You really see its bias for going crazy with lows!!!

 

even wilder difference....

Aye Daniel, GFS is mixing some colder air in the charts from 120t-240t with some tasty little lows in the flow. The one below forecast to give snow to parts of Ireland. So hopefully on the cusp of some colder runs today.  There appears to be a sqeeze into Europe again from this latest GFS run.

C

[Griff]

I've had an epiphany, anything beyond 144 is fiction... 

In the more reliable it seems that the GFS looks on it's own regarding undercooking events to the north. 

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Griff

[Griff]

Pick of the bunch, ecm and ukmo. 

And no, I don't have any clue what happens next, only a desire for waa to blow the whole thing into pieces and watch the chaos resolve... 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Griff

[KTtom]

ECM 168 even has a spot of yellow in the Arctic high! That seems to be where the good news ends...the pattern looking flat to the west of the UK with low after low queing up to batter the uk, west especially!

This was not the outlook we were expecting in the run up for xmas, we've had an Arctic high, a Russian high and in the uk its stayed wet! ,  and its only a matter of time now before the vortex reforms over the pole. 

Yes, there are differences past 144 in various runs, but the overall theme is the same..wet and windy!

ECM 168

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by KTtom

[mountain shadow]

One word summary for the 0zs..

Flooding.

[sheikhy]

Pretty bad ukmo and ecm this morning!!i dont really care how much blocking there is in the pole if it doesnt bring any cold/snow to the uk what is the point!!waste of synoptics!!gimme gfs 00z this morning!!i take that over the ukmo and ecm!!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Both the 00Z GFS and 00Z GEM seem to have quite a few things in common at 240 hours:

GFS

 

GEM

Despite the Russian ridge being a little further West on the GEM, they both discard the high heights close by to our South-East over mainland Europe. With a reasonably Southerly track to to Jet, it helps get Atlantic Lows to head further East into Europe with a West to North-West flow dominating the UK on both charts. Particularly more so on the GFS. You’ll notice as well there’s still no massive big purple beast rampaging Greenland, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the 00Z ECMWF remains the same (or similar) at 240 hours. 

Edit: Just checked and there’s no big purple beast over Greenland on the ECMWF at 240 hours either:

 

Just a pity for the UK area the pattern looks bit like a chocolate cookie that has gone off. High heights close by to our South-East and a pretty mild South-Westerly flow, especially across Southern UK (but great for those who like that setup). Gonna keep the toys in the pushchair for now - could quite easily change to something a little more encouraging on the next run. Operational runs, while not always, particularly if they’ve locked onto a certain pattern, do tend to have an erratic nature.

Edited December 11, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding extra

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty bad ukmo and ecm this morning!!i dont really care how much blocking there is in the pole if it doesnt bring any cold/snow to the uk what is the point!!waste of synoptics!!gimme gfs 00z this morning!!i take that over the ukmo and ecm!!

Keep the faith, nothing is set in stone despite the law of averages being against us. 

Strong - nao and blocking signal returning for later in December... 

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

ECM 168 even has a spot of yellow in the Arctic high! That seems to be where the good news ends...the pattern looking flat to the west of the UK with low after low queing up to batter the uk, west especially!

This was not the outlook we were expecting in the run up for xmas, weve had an Arctic high, a Russian high and in the uk its stayed wet! ,  and its only a matter of time now before the vortex reforms over the pole. 

Yes, there are differences past 144 in various runs, but the overall theme is the same..wet and windy!

ECM 168

 

Blustery showers and bright intervals would be a better summary I would suggest.  Let’s look at Manchester for example. Upto t168, one day of heavy rain and one of light. Five of little rain. Yet people talk about flooding. Some places in the east will possibly see little rain over the next week. Beyond that who knows. 

[Guest]

The NH looks prime for cold for some, but not the UK unfortunately until at least Jan going by the models.

Can't see the pattern changing thereafter, feels like one of those missed opportunities to me.

 

[West is Best]

19 minutes ago, KTtom said:

This was not the outlook we were expecting in the run up for xmas

I can't see why tbh.

I've never seen the potential that one or two have stated to be so amazing this year. So there's been an Arctic High. Well as many have pointed out, that's only one piece of a much bigger jigsaw. It's not sufficient in and of itself, especially if other upstream signals aren't helping. There's nothing coming out of the US that fills me with inspiration for cold, with the jet powering up off the eastern seaboard and a reduction in amplification. We're now moving into a North Atlantic ridging/positive geopotential height anomaly which will lead to European temperatures normal to above to above normal.

And the point about the NW flow just doesn't bear out. Most of the time over the next week to ten days the UK will be back in a south-westerly and even southerly flow. And that means mild.

 

At the moment I'm afraid it's all bog-standard UK winter weather of recent years.

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Pretty bad ukmo and ecm this morning!!i dont really care how much blocking there is in the pole if it doesnt bring any cold/snow to the uk what is the point!!waste of synoptics!!gimme gfs 00z this morning!!i take that over the ukmo and ecm!!

Its been obvious for well over a week where December is heading shaky...

A washout.

EC det gets worse by the day,Atlantic profile is awful...

Patience going to be required...

[Beanz]

8 minutes ago, DCee said:

The NH looks prime for cold for some, but not the UK unfortunately until at least Jan going by the models.

Can't see the pattern changing thereafter, feels like one of those missed opportunities to me.

 

The models don’t predict the weather in Jan - at least not with reliability 

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I can't see why tbh.

I've never seen the potential that one or two have stated to be so amazing this year. So there's been an Arctic High. Well as many have pointed out, that's only one piece of a much bigger jigsaw. It's not sufficient in and of itself, especially if other upstream signals aren't helping. There's nothing coming out of the US that fills me with inspiration for cold, with the jet powering up off the eastern seaboard and a reduction in amplification. We're now moving into a North Atlantic ridging/positive geopotential height anomaly which will lead to European temperatures normal to above to above normal.

And the point about the NW flow just doesn't bear out. Most of the time over the next week to ten days the UK will be back in a south-westerly and even southerly flow. And that means mild.

 

At the moment I'm afraid it's all bog-standard UK winter weather of recent years.

Morning. Yes I'd agree with your post. Nothing unusual with the outlook it's December after all. I think people may be wise to stick to reliable time frames"whatever model you consider best" and stave off any kind of let down they may feel is Warented. 

[mb018538]

Looking more and more likely that another green xmas is lining up for the UK. Stubborn heights to the E/SE of the UK just won't budge and allow the trough to lift out of NW Europe.

Sadly we're back in a position where flooding is going to be the main concern - western areas likely to see 100mm+ of rainfall in the next 10 days as low pressure dominates.

All of this with an AO hitting -3 or -4 in the next week. We are cursed.

[blizzard81]

Absolute shocker from the ecm this morning. And to think I was harping on about a cold Christmas week last night. That'll teach me lol. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Looking more and more likely that another green xmas is lining up for the UK. Stubborn heights to the E/SE of the UK just won't budge and allow the trough to lift out of NW Europe.

Sadly we're back in a position where flooding is going to be the main concern - western areas likely to see 100mm+ of rainfall in the next 10 days as low pressure dominates.

All of this with an AO hitting -3 or -4 in the next week. We are cursed.

It feels like we are cursed but we aren't really.

We are just in a poor spot at the edge of the Atlantic...A warming and angry Atlantic...having watched NWP since the late 90s its obvious to even a blind man blocking at high lats just gets blown away by the powerful jet stream 99% of the time ...

Looking at the 00z data I wouldn't be at all surprised if flooding is back in the news over the coming weeks...

 

[blizzard81]

Not saying the ecm will come off but sods law would dictate it will. The Iberian high is becoming very predictable now every winter. 

[KTtom]

31 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Blustery showers and bright intervals would be a better summary I would suggest.  Let’s look at Manchester for example. Upto t168, one day of heavy rain and one of light. Five of little rain. Yet people talk about flooding. Some places in the east will possibly see little rain over the next week. Beyond that who knows. 

Maybe a little of my local area in my summing up, much as some do when there is a chance of an easterly!

Trust me, for the west of the UK, this ECM 120 is far from blustery showers! 

 

[IDO]

No real change up to d10 on the gefs and the mean similar to other models; no sign of forcing in that period either.

After d10 the gefs go in different directions, entropy as to the route by d12, so the Arctic high may have a limited lifespan to help. About 50% lose the Arctic high and even those that keep it are exploring different journeys.

d10 gefs mean>> d16>>

d16 (fwiw) mean suggests a more familiar mean tPV, either entropy or split vortices and a more orthodox winter pattern? 

The next 10-days, look away, not the usual zonal Atlantic, instead the wedge near Greenland squeezing the axis of lows directly at us, so wet and windy:

 10-day rain totals>

Rainfall totals are high^^^ecm very similar.

 

[Eagle Eye]

L3et's pretend that the Chart above is Today's run. 

[TSNWK]

On 03/12/2019 at 17:06, Steve Murr said:

 

 

 

14 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

 

I think what would be good to hear is some updates from a couple of the big hitters who were around start of this week when things at the time were looking more positive for coldies

( invisible wall for anyone?) – be great hearing if they still think we are in the game and if not what has changed as the week progressed to introduce what the models are currently suggesting.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Maybe a little of my local area in my summing up, much as some do when there is a chance of an easterly!

Trust me, for the west of the UK, this ECM 120 is far from blustery showers! 

 

That’s one day. I highlighted that there would be a day of heavy rain. Wednesday/Thursday but you would think reading various comments that it was going to rain constantly and I simply don’t see that. The original time we were discussing was for the next t168 hours. Have a look at some where like Royal Portrush for the next six to seven days. More days with little rain than days with. All subject to change of course but.......l

[TSNWK]

Just now, TSNWK said:

 

I think what would be good to hear is some updates from a couple of the big hitters who were around start of this week when things at the time were looking more positive for coldies

( invisible wall for anyone?) – be great hearing if they still think we are in the game and if not what has changed as the week progressed to introduce what the models are currently suggesting.

and I have no idea why this reply picked up Steve Murr / Mountain - but of course be good to hear thoughts from anyone

[bluearmy]

Indications that the Atlantic train off the e seaboard of the states will blow itself out post day 10 as heights rise generally in eastern USA .........that would allow for something to develop our side of the Atlantic depending on what we can do with the euro heights and the arctic high ........