Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[TSNWK]

Really big changes between Canada and Greenland on those heights pretty flat at 06z this 12z is really pointy

Heights lowers over scandi and Europe... 

Plenty of work to do.. but at least in this run at least the trend has swung a little in coldies favor

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by TSNWK

[Cold Winter]

5 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Not sure whether the GFS has an idea or not, but it looks a bit better, because it actually moves the low through.

It’s playing with slightly different solutions so we’re bound to see some different output with each run, as we always do.  But yes, to me, this particular run looks a bit better. Ultimately are we going to get a string of lows and northerly topplers, something which sets up a more sustained cold pattern, or something different entirely!? Only time and patience will tell.

Edited December 11, 2020 by Cold Winter

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Really big changes between Canada and Greenland on those heights pretty flat at 06z this 12z is really pointy

Heights lowers over scandi and Europe... 

Plenty of work to do.. but at least in this run at least the trend has swung a little in coldies favor

 

Yes it should prevent the PV spawning lows towards the UK. Get the jet a bit further south and not a bad outlook. And on cue Heighths build from the south

Edited December 11, 2020 by swfc

[Cold Winter]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it should prevent the PV spawning lows towards the UK. Get the jet a bit further south and not a bad outlook. And on cue Heighths build from the south

GFS determined for us to have a mild southwesterly Christmas 

[Matt H]

[SLEETY]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

They are posting it, because it is a forecasting tool using model output. It also one of the best in the world.

The 'cold' spell we have just had, does indeed look like our front loaded Winter has come and gone and barring the occasional toppler, it does indeed look like that is it.

Certainly, virtually zero chance of proper cold spell greater the 5 days.

Well glosea got it hopelessly wrong, think it was last Winter  it went for HLB throughout Winter and the complete opposite happened and we had a very mild winter with temperatures hitting 70f.

So anyone would be foolish writing of the whole 3 months of winter  maybe the complete opposite will happen again this winter. 

[TSNWK]

The scrag end looks pants.. I’m not bothering which the rest.. however I’m sure there was a post this morning about potential for heights upstream as we have just develope a little on this run..

fair shout as this run regardless if right or wrong would suggest there was something there..

[swfc]

Just now, Cold Winter said:

GFS determined for us to have a mild southwesterly Christmas 

You couldn't write it!!! Good profile out towards esb, heights lowering to the east then a pulse of Heighths from the south

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Really big changes between Canada and Greenland on those heights pretty flat at 06z this 12z is really pointy

Heights lowers over scandi and Europe... 

Plenty of work to do.. but at least in this run at least the trend has swung a little in coldies favor

I should add that for us on the ground I’m not seeing much change at this time frame.. but we still might squeeze out a chilly run up to Christmas 

Key feature to note on this run is the scandi trough, which enables lower heights to penetrate into central and eastern Europe, pressure then exerted on the azores high, a more NW-SE jet, generally a more amplified flow which could enable stronger ridge development to the rear of the Atlantic long wave trough and who knows possible joining with heights out of the Pole. Pressure lowering in central and eastern Europe sets a trigger point to possible such evolution combined with retraction of PV away from eastern seaboard. I am not looking beyond next weekend timeframe.

[heath]

Pleasant day, but what on earth happens next? 

[swfc]

Gone from a wall to the east to a wall from the south

[SLEETY]

Gfs Anything beyond 120 hours is liable to big  changes then when it hits low-res well might as well draw the weather maps yourself, probably be more accurate. 

[Updated_Weather]

 Cooler air trying to save the day with at least average weather for the BIG day

[Cold Winter]

Control run also picking up signal for increased heights over eastern Canada by T174 compared with 0z.

[Updated_Weather]

Just me who finds this funny?

[Gowon]

23 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Who knows? At least it's not as bad as the "horror" charts that sacred some folk off yesterday

All for interesting model viewing regardless of perspective 

 

We have sacred folks on netweather?

[Day 10]

No matter what happens in the chaotic world of weather you can always guarantee one thing, lovely mild southwesterly winds like flies round #### for the UK!

Edited December 11, 2020 by Day 10

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, heath said:

Pleasant day, but what on earth happens next? 

Just the same old rubbish low pressure to our west...rinse and repeat

[Weathizard]

Can someone give the attempted ridging in the west Atlantic a blue pill please? It’s frustrating seeing the one area we need a ridge to build so flat throughout this run. 
 

GIVE US SOME AMPLIFICATION, with the NH pattern if we could just get a ridge up there we’d be well in the game.
 

We finally see high pressure to our east do one, only to be replaced by an even bigger annoyance, the Iberian high.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Weathizard

[Methuselah]

Get those beer gardens open, boys and girls... winter's here!

     

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Gfs Anything beyond 120 hours is liable to big  changes then when it hits low-res well might as well draw the weather maps yourself, probably be more accurate. 

Agree there are three thresholds, whatever the time of year

The reliable 96-120 hrs tops

Semi-reliable, 120-168 hrs tops

Long term, (take with high caution) 168 hrs beyond

Today is 11 Dec,

Reliable, 16 Dec

Semi reliable 18 Dec

Unreliable 18 Dec onwards

Christmas Day is 7 more days on from 18 Dec, so well into unreliable timescales..

[Daniel*]

Some real intense cold being modelled in parts of N Hemisphere, I don’t recall seeing -40C uppers modelled in December before impossible for us to see, half of that is stretch but imagine that over North Sea!

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, heath said:

Pleasant day, but what on earth happens next? 

Looks like that low goes under, but far to far to be looking.

[Tim Bland]

Just need that low to shove east. Just sits there

[Methuselah]

Anyone up for a Boxing Day barbie?