Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[blizzard81]

Just now, TSNWK said:

 

I think what would be good to hear is some updates from a couple of the big hitters who were around start of this week when things at the time were looking more positive for coldies

( invisible wall for anyone?) – be great hearing if they still think we are in the game and if not what has changed as the week progressed to introduce what the models are currently suggesting.

The invisible wall became very visible lol. The ecm op towards the end goes against last night's anomalies from the Ec46 from 21st Dec. Unless there is a dramatic turn around after day 10. Pressure is shown to build over south west Europe on this morning's ECM. This is not what is advertised on the EC46. Lets hope this isn't another EC46 flop after promising so much. 

[dragan]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

 

I think what would be good to hear is some updates from a couple of the big hitters who were around start of this week when things at the time were looking more positive for coldies

( invisible wall for anyone?) – be great hearing if they still think we are in the game and if not what has changed as the week progressed to introduce what the models are currently suggesting.

that will be me then, although i was one of the big hitters who suggested we will not see cold this side of xmas.

Still nothing has made me change my mind, in fact, i think there is a higher chance of heights into sceuro potentially bringing us a southerly feed.

 

[mulzy]

Subtle changes in the extended EPS mean.  The low heights anomaly close to the UK is stronger but it does push the higher heights over Europe further east/south east.  There is now a tendency for heights to the south showing up (as seen in the outer reaches of the last few det runs) but this is a relatively weak signal. The heights around Greenland are not as intense as runs earlier this week. All in all, still decent but trending the wrong way.  Let’s see what this evening brings.

Edited December 11, 2020 by mulzy

[NewEra21]

It's got to the point right now where I honestly don't care if it's cold or mild, but for the love of god just no more rain.

Everywhere is already like a soggy bog, just got another drenching taking the dog for a walk.

I'd just take a dry Christmas at this point, even if it's not cold.

With everything looking so promising, arctic high, AO tanking etc. We just seem to be in the same old rut. Nothing is falling in place for us in the UK, it's all becoming a bit downbeat chasing any cold. Especially when we have so many things currently in our favour.

It's only a matter of time before the PV organises itself and we see the AO trend positive. It all just feels like we're currently wasting our big chance at something cold with the current synoptics. 

Here's hoping for a Christmas miracle, have a good day everyone!

Edited December 11, 2020 by NewEra21

[Tim Bland]

This would deliver in the north and on high ground...shift it 300 miles south and make it a bit shallower / elongated & we would be in business ..

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Indications that the Atlantic train off the e seaboard of the states will blow itself out post day 10 as heights rise generally in eastern USA .........that would allow for something to develop our side of the Atlantic depending on what we can do with the euro heights and the arctic high ........

We need that God damn Atlantic to relent ...

Hope we don't lose the -AO in the meantime!!

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Subtle changes in the extended EPS mean.  The low heights anomaly close to the UK is stronger but it does push the higher heights over Europe further east/south east.  There is now a tendency for heights to the south showing up (as seen in the outer reaches of the last few det runs) but this is a relatively weak signal. The heights around Greenland are not as intense as runs earlier this week. All in all, still decent but trending the wrong way.  Let’s see what this evening brings.

I don't think in fairness that would suprise many members.

Its a well trodden path....

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We need that God damn Atlantic to relent ...

Hope we don't lose the -AO in the meantime!!

Still some +ve heights to our north in the latter stages of the ECM run, but very vague details. Neither of those look especially cold either, and that pesky trough is still in our neck of the woods.

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Aye Daniel, GFS is mixing some colder air in the charts from 120t-240t with some tasty little lows in the flow. The one below forecast to give snow to parts of Ireland. So hopefully on the cusp of some colder runs today.  There appears to be a sqeeze into Europe again from this latest GFS run.

C

Morning  all, quite a difference in this mornings ops with GFS taking a more zonal flow into Europe ( as shown in the above post ) but ECM/UKMO holding the milder option with ridging in evidence over the continent.

C

[Jeremy Shockey]

lets hope we can get the MJO into phase 6 and then maybe get the Northern blocking in the right place for cold to the UK.

We need something to stop the procession of Atlantic lows that seem to have been modelled over the next 10 days.

All is not lost yet for 23-31 Dec but time is running out it seems  

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[Eagle Eye]

Happy Xmas.

[Eagle Eye]

Low pressure hanging around just before Christmas.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by XanderP007

[Drifter]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

This is not what is advertised on the EC46. Lets hope this isn't another EC46 flop after promising so much. 

I don’t know why people give it so much credence (especially when forecasting cold). 

[mb018538]

Here's the updated MJO forecast....some members going into 7/8/1 with a bit of amplitude, but the mean is stuck in the COD. Might miss this boat too here!

[PiscesStar]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Aye Daniel, GFS is mixing some colder air in the charts from 120t-240t with some tasty little lows in the flow. The one below forecast to give snow to parts of Ireland. So hopefully on the cusp of some colder runs today.  There appears to be a sqeeze into Europe again from this latest GFS run.

C

Needs to be because from my viewpoint it's south westerlies carrying Atlantic low after low through our island. Huge flooding risk for some areas, feeling miserable in the wind in the . Nothing seasonal until at least 21st December...... 

[carinthian]

3 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Needs to be because from my viewpoint it's south westerlies carrying Atlantic low after low through our island. Huge flooding risk for some areas, feeling miserable in the wind in the . Nothing seasonal until at least 21st December...... 

Yes, ECM and UKMO run this morning heading that way big style.

C

[johnholmes]

Thursday 11 December, The picture from the 500  anomaly charts  no pc for 48 hours

Ec-gfs; well some changes but nothing to materially alter the weather pattern for the uk!

Noaa It also shows no marked change in the Tuesday pattern predicted at 6-10 nor 8-14 really.

So the UK remains locked in the current weather pattern with no sign of any marked cold spell developing in the next 2 weeks. It ‘might’ change but it seems doubtful based on these charts. What is happening beyond this time scale is for others to show.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

MP1.MET.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Bartlett has just took a wicket for the Brisbane Heat - hope that is not an omen!

[warrenb]

Nasty little storm at 120 on the 6z

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Thursday 11 December, The picture from the 500  anomaly charts  no pc for 48 hours

Ec-gfs; well some changes but nothing to materially alter the weather pattern for the uk!

Noaa It also shows no marked change in the Tuesday pattern predicted at 6-10 nor 8-14 really.

So the UK remains locked in the current weather pattern with no sign of any marked cold spell developing in the next 2 weeks. It ‘might’ change but it seems doubtful based on these charts. What is happening beyond this time scale is for others to show.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

MP1.MET.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Thank you John - Over the years it is these updates that have provided a stable amongst the fluid nature of the Ops run - just so god darn annoying that they tend to prove relatively accurate - the time to sit up in my view is when ( IF! ) John rocks up with an update suggesting that 500 anomaly charts are supportive of something of interest for us Coldies! - I say this to myself all the time, and kick myself every time I'm drawn in by the Ops and postive posting

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

The invisible wall became very visible lol. The ecm op towards the end goes against last night's anomalies from the Ec46 from 21st Dec. Unless there is a dramatic turn around after day 10. Pressure is shown to build over south west Europe on this morning's ECM. This is not what is advertised on the EC46. Lets hope this isn't another EC46 flop after promising so much. 

Let's clear this up.. Last night I mentioned Heights close to Xmas over the Greenland locale building, I think there was a tweet by Matt Hugo regarding this.. I had only viewed it up till the 26th of December! These Heights are not substantial, and are eroding pretty quickly.. 

As we move towards the backend of the month and early January Low Pressure is quite a dominant feature around Iceland, and we still have that problem of increasing Heights around Iberia... And thats pretty much what it's been hinting at for a few runs now. And tbh it doesn't seem to far away from what Exeter are going with. Anyone who sees this different, then i must have my blinkers on.. But it's not the best of runs. 

[Eagle Eye]

Looking like a good ol North Westerner possibly.

[georgiedre]

Is it me or is this 6z showing a bit more amplification towards Spain??

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, georgiedre said:

Is it me or is this 6z showing a bit more amplification towards Spain??

I’d rather it was towards Greenland. 

[Methuselah]

Oh dear... the GFS 06z at t+144 is much too complex for mere mortals like me to understand, so I'll leave the in-depth (it's going to snow -- oh no it isn't -- oh yes it is) interpretations to our resident, self-styled 'big hitters'!

    

Edited December 11, 2020 by General Cluster