Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Mike Poole]

GFS looking excellent at T144, here with UKMO for comparison.  The difference in amplification is considerable (ringed) but UKMO has taken a step to GFS:

[Battleground Snow]

GFS looks more amplified to me than the Ukmo still at 144.... Should be another good run.

 

[Weathizard]

UKMO looks better than this morning to me, side by side comparison shows the key area of amplification in the west Atlantic has moved more towards the GFS

[Kasim Awan]

North is the only way.. ❄ #keepthehope..

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is a devoloping situation. I really wouldnt rule out Christmas snow Steve. Look at the uppers at 120.....

If you were a betting man > outside odds on Norwich...

GFs sharper with the cold flow late Xmas eve.

Not far off from -8c uppers getting to London now...

Flurries on xmas day - Core cold over midlands -9c 850

 

GFS is the form favourite here on modelling over ECM - Atlantic ridges close to greenland its 'forte'

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If you were a betting man > outside odds on Norwich...

GFs sharper with the cold flow late Xmas eve.

Not far off from -8c uppers getting to London now...

Flurries on xmas day - Core cold over midlands -9c 850

 

GFS is the form favourite here on modelling over ECM - Atlantic ridges close to greenland its 'forte'

I think a good part of the east could would up to a crunchy floor on Xmas morning, and not of the frost variety..

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If you were a betting man > outside odds on Norwich...

GFs sharper with the cold flow late Xmas eve.

Not far off from -8c uppers getting to London now...

Flurries on xmas day - Core cold over midlands -9c 850

 

GFS is the form favourite here on modelling over ECM - Atlantic ridges close to greenland its 'forte'

Yeah ive been banging that drum. GFS is the king when it comes to north atlantic ridges and Greenland highs 

[Nick F]

-7 to -8C T850s covering England and Wales midnight Christmas Eve on 12z GFS. Wintry showers confined to eastern and western coasts, but should a trough pass south, it could bring some snow inland, too far off, any snow talk confined to purely digital fantasy for now. But, widespread frost likely to greet us Christmas Day, white from frost rather than snow for most, but it'll at least feel festive.

Looking more amplified the ridge upstream over NW Atlantic/Labrador next weekend, plus arctic high looking more prominent over Svalbard.

Edited December 19, 2020 by Nick F

[Mike Poole]

This one looks like it is going to be a belter!!  Might even link with the Arctic high!  GFS T168:

[Battleground Snow]

Further deep cold creeping into Northern Scandinavia... A good trend to keep going, if we do manage to tap into the north east at some point

[SMU]

Possbily ! Maybe the Fax will show the 'Twig' of convergence!!

GFS upgrading the Deep euro cold on this run migrating WSW

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This one looks like it is going to be a belter!!  Might even link with the Arctic high!  GFS T168:

 

There's your link Mike

You're right, this *could* be a belter!?

[Nick F]

12z GFS slower getting the centre of the upper vortex  / surface low SE, don't like the way it loiters NW of Scotland. Not worried about this given so far out, but wish that vortex would god damn move southeast!

Edited December 19, 2020 by Nick F

[sheikhy]

Beautyy of a chart at 192 hours!!!!!low thicknesses as well!!!

[Howie]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

12z GFS slower getting the centre of the upper vortex  / surface low SE, don't like the way it loiters NW of Scotland. Not worried about this given so far out, but wish that vortex would god damn move southeast!

I agree, I hope it shifts more south east as we get closer 

[Nick F]

It's like there's some invisible force stopping that upper vortex dropping into mainland Europe, frustrating if it is play out like that, as the cold air gets mixed out too quickly in the low circulation over the UK. Be just our luck!

[Weathizard]

Extremely consistent modelling from the GFS, credit where it’s due as we always annihilate it for it’s flopping about.

[Kasim Awan]

Now all we need is a 350 mile southward adjustment and we're on the money..

 

The 12z suite so far has shown a good improvement on the initial tilting around Greenland at 120-144h for a clean south easterly low progression & more effective later amplification. See if the ecm/ukmo continues the trend.

[Scott Ingham]

17 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yep, uppers are a degree or two lower than the 6z

We're always concerned about downgrades, however we could just as easily in this situation be seeing upgrades at short notice!

The models are coming to terms with AAM i believe. Yet again we are seeing this under played. I believe upgrades will continue. Especially given lag between the 30th and 4th of january off the back of the christmas week EAMT

[Howie]

Bit frustrating to see the low just stall over us and fill..... I hope that changes closer to the time 

[Ice Day]

We really are only a few hundred miles away from hitting the jackpot here, there's plenty of time for this to improve as the clock ticks down!

  

The general pattern is still being shown, which is the important thing IMO

[Griff]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This one looks like it is going to be a belter!!  Might even link with the Arctic high!  GFS T168:

That's my default position  

[bluearmy]

No panic on that gfs op as it’s consistent with its previous output ..... we don’t want to see a correction of the modelling west, that’s for sure 

[Scott Ingham]

11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It's like there's some invisible force stopping that upper vortex dropping into mainland Europe, frustrating if it is play out like that, as the cold air gets mixed out too quickly in the low circulation over the UK. Be just our luck!

If we end up on the right sound of marginal however with built in troughs and fronts someone could get plastered!

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, Howie said:

Bit frustrating to see the low just stall over us and fill..... I hope that changes closer to the time 

As per 2 1/2 weeks ago...be nice for once to actually get into a cold air mass rather than just have displaced low pressure over us.