Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[northwestsnow]

EC will produce a super toppler ....

Hopefully enough trough energy into S Europe to allow for a second attack after day 10....

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Ecm edging to the GFS. Tomorrors runs if we can get the ECM finally on board it will be an enjoyable days model watching!

But you know the script - the GFS will flip!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I tell you what,many of those ens...all be it in fi,are far from typical Winter synoptics....we are in the game for sure,last year we were seriously depressed with dire output...this year we have Covid to dull the mood...but at least we have plenty of eye candy on the Horizon...let's hope it doesn't stay on the Horizon this time... 

Have a great evening good folks,I'm off to watch Skull Island..

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

But you know the script - the GFS will flip!

Hahaha it does have an habit of picking up the way forward dropping it then bringing it back but im quietly confident

[northwestsnow]

There we go....

Very cold run this...

[Mucka]

The ridge thrown up ahead of the low across the UK/Iberia causes the trough to be further E and shallower.

That could give a more direct N flow as here but it could also be more short lived if the trough moves away E/NE and we would be looking for more upstream help .

Otherwise we could get some shortwave help sliding down the E flank of the ridge which would maintain the trough and cold feed and potentially bring snow.

You pays your money and take your chances but nice to see we still have a nice FI chart this time.

I would much prefer that ridge to be much weaker though and the trough dig further S initially as that is a safer and quicker way to cold even if the initial polar blast may not be as direct

[Guest]

There we go... ECM swinging towards GFS.  

Your welcome.

[northwestsnow]

Will be interesting to see temps at the surface by day 9 on the det...

Uppers -8 /-4 North to South..

Cold at night I guess....!

[Battleground Snow]

A half way house between the GFS and ECM would actually be ideal in this scenario

 

[nick sussex]

Ironic . The GFS looks better in terms of blocking but because the low blows up and drops south sitting over the UK it’s less cold initially .

The ECM less inspiring but because the low drops further to the east it’s colder.

A blend of the two might be a good solution .

 

[Mike Poole]

Holy schmoley,  the whole damn lot could be heading towards our shores on ECM T240

You get the situation where the high to our west is further west than the entire vortex...and, well, who knows what would happen next.

[Weathizard]

Even if the first ridge doesn’t make it, looks like even outside of that there will be more chances, that’s one hell of a HP cell

[Mucka]

I think a blend of ECM and GFS might be a good solution. 

 

As I have said all along, we don't really need that spoiler ridge though a slight deflection E at the sacrifice of being further S could be the perfect fit.

[sebastiaan1973]

Well lot's of work to do -from my point of view-. We do see snow in the Netherlands and some cold nights. But nothing comes close to a period of weather cold enough for our beloved skating.

[northwestsnow]

EC NH day 10 is carnage..

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Even if the first ridge doesn’t make it, looks like even outside of that there will be more chances, that’s one hell of a HP cell

The ECM is not a great run, The high pressure never gets far enough North for sustained cold (Greenland or Scandinavian high or both) and given the initial blast is unlikely to see anything noteworthy for most its pretty mundane imo.

[Ice Day]

The GFS and ECM journey's are different, but the end destination looks the same.... cold.  I would say the the GFS seems to have been more consistent than the ECM, which is struggling to handle the heights over the north Atlantic and Greenland.  That said, it could be that the GFS is consistently wrong!

Comparing the 12z GEFS vs 6z shows a slightly colder set, but not much in it really.

  

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Even if the first ridge doesn’t make it, looks like even outside of that there will be more chances, that’s one hell of a HP cell

That's the story of the Winter so far though.

Manyana manyana.

 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, MKN said:

The ECM is not a great run, The high pressure never gets far enough North for sustained cold (Greenland or Scandinavian high or both) and given the initial blast is unlikely to see anything noteworthy for most its pretty mundane imo.

I think we need to see all these runs at the moment, this far out, in terms of the envelope of the possible. And at this moment, that envelope has shifted and shrinked to a better chance of the cold outcome, with a shift to GFS of both UKMO and ECM.  GFS chose to raise the blocking ante but that is probably a one off, for me.  All’s good after the 12s.  Except the coronavirus, obviously. 

[Anthony Burden]

ECM looking cold all the way pressure high to the west/north west and pressure low to the east/northeast

can not ask much better Synoptics.Temperatures Will remain in single figures for some time over most

of the country,and I’m sure snow will be part of the next 10 day’s in parts of the U.K.

[Daniel*]

The ECM 12z is an improvement I don’t think destined to topple fast higher pressure over eastern Canada is what you want to see, helps have more of a pull of retrogression assuming day 10 happened I would expect several days down the line for a northerly attempt. Repeating patterns....

[northwestsnow]

In the interests of fairness the det was more amplified than I expected. 

The energy dropping south into Europe is important for us, it looks a strong signal on the det.

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

The ECM 12z is an improvement I don’t think destined to topple fast higher pressure over eastern Canada is what you want to see, helps have more of a pull of retrogression assuming day 10 happened I would expect several days down the line for a northerly attempt. Repeating patterns....

Also good to see low pressure in the mediterranean 

[Frosty.]

Oh my, Blue has always been my favourite colour!...nice ECM 12z as long as you don’t like mild..sorry Darren Bett!!!..Mr Spock thinks it’s logical!..charts in illogical order..I think?

 

[MKN]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think we need to see all these runs at the moment, this far out, in terms of the envelope of the possible. And at this moment, that envelope has shifted and shrinked to a better chance of the cold outcome, with a shift to GFS of both UKMO and ECM.  GFS chose to raise the blocking ante but that is probably a one off, for me.  All’s good after the 12s.  Except the coronavirus, obviously. 

The ECM and GFS are poles apart. I don't understand this so called shift to the GFS, Of course im referring to a fair way off but at 216 Greenland is dominated by a 1040mb area of high pressure on the GFS compared to low pressure with the ECM.