Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Rinse and repeat for the rest of winter....

 

9 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Couldn't of said this any better 

You two are a great match . What do you base these predictions on may I ask ? 

Edited December 19, 2020 by ICE COLD

[Matt H]

If the GFS does manage to pull this off then it will increase my respect for the model despite all the bashing that it’s subject to. Since the 18z on Thursday it has been very consistent so it’ll be interesting to see how everything unfolds. Anyway, time for the pub run.

[Matt H]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

 

You two are a great match . What do you base these predictions on my I ask ? 

I think they’re looking at model runs from December 2015...

Edited December 19, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Daniel*]

@Uncertainy the GFS 12z was actually the first run to give a major SSW on January 3rd there’s more to it than less warming it still looks impressive, it’s where the goods flows (I’m so scientific) what would be the point in a massive Siberian warming which didn't infiltrate the pole?

[Allseasons-Si]

Sorry if these have already been posted...

but they don't look half bad to me

5 blocking features-red

6 Atlantic ridges-violet

and only 2 +NAO-blue

the understanding of these clusters if you haven't already read this:-

 

The new clustering product show geopotential height at 500hPa and 1000 hPa (black contours) from specific ENS members (scenarios) that better represent the cluster centroids. In the case of the scenarios at 500hPa geopotential height anomalies are overlayed in colour shading.

When the ensemble distribution is sufficiently homogeneous the cluster algorithm cannot partition the ensemble in a meaningful way, for these cases the ensemble member that better represents the ensemble mean is shown.

Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

[Tim Bland]

26 minutes ago, LRD said:

 

However, I have a feeling Xmas Eve and Xmas Day cold might be upgraded short term, but followed by mid-term disappointment before an uptick in cold lovers fortunes around the turn of the year

GEFS ensembles agree with this. A little ‘less cold’ after Xmas then colder again around new year. I’ve noticed the last few sets have an increase in the snow chances around 28-31st

[MATTWOLVES 3]

39 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

People are writing off the post Christmas period off of the back of a couple of bad (and not really bad in the grand scheme of things) ecm runs.

Chill out look at it scientifically we still have a very good ticket to the lottery. According to the clusters the ECM has a very minor majority going for something similar to the GFS. The ukmo doesnt go out far enough and the most consistent model in all of this the GFS is signposting a very interesting cold period. 

Itll never be any different on here will it hahaha 

Seriously Scott,I'm glad someone like you as started posting...it only increases the level headed knowledge now have on here... we can't say for certain how the coming weeks will pan out,we are not clairvoyant...I would say to some who seriously doubt any cold weather is either No 1 those who consider past failures and assume its got to repeat the same pattern year after year..And no 2 those who like to wind up the cold lovers on here..seriously guys,go check out Weather Trending Jon Hammond thoughts for Winter...there is plenty to play for and bare in mind he is a met office trained forecaster,not to say he is correct,because we can't guarantee any outcome..so as silly as it may seem to say narnia is on its way,its just as futile to say complete Zonality is guaranteed!

Oh and wait for Summer when I bring my EC46 summer updates...it will still be....that model doesn't have a clue,and i will believe it when I see it...even when 1050mb is planted over us.. But like you and others say,the current set up is very positive...now its just playing the waiting game.

I enjoyed that post so much...I posted it a 1000 times...

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

35 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

36 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Uncertainty]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

@Uncertainy the GFS 12z was actually the first run to give a major SSW on January 3rd there’s more to it than less warming it still looks impressive, it’s where the goods flows (I’m so scientific) what would be the point in a massive Siberian warming which didn't infiltrate the pole?

Yes and I’m also liking the Atlantic warming meeting up with it, looks like a good location for the split if there is to be one. Let’s hope it continues over the next few days.

My point was more of an observation of a trend to reduce the peak warming temps, we wouldn’t want this to continue as there wouldn’t be enough heat to trigger a major SSW. But I agree it’s great to see the FV3 core going for a reversal at a relatively short time frame. This was always touted as one of the advantages of the new GFS and hopefully we’ll see it shine here.

It Just feels a little too early to be sure on this yet. Would need to see a majority of GEFS / EPS members going for it to to call it and that’s just not the case at present.

Would be delighted to be wrong!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

38 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[blizzard81]

Crewe made an important point earlier with regards to how amplified the pattern is. 90hrs on the 18z which is in the reliable. Amplification in abundance....... West coast of the US, east coast of the US and eastern atlantic. Zonal is out of the equation for as long as we could ever wish for. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

43 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[BlueHedgehog074]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

People are writing off the post Christmas period off of the back of a couple of bad (and not really bad in the grand scheme of things) ecm runs.

Chill out look at it scientifically we still have a very good ticket to the lottery. According to the clusters the ECM has a very minor majority going for something similar to the GFS. The ukmo doesnt go out far enough and the most consistent model in all of this the GFS is signposting a very interesting cold period. 

Itll never be any different on here will it hahaha 

With the sort of outcome it has been showing, the GFS does look the most pleasing. Maybe a little West based on the 12Z run, but great amplification with decent heights over Greenland. Over the UK itself, the weather certainly wouldn’t be mild (except right at the end of that 12Z run)

8 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

If the GFS does manage to pull this off then it will increase my respect for the model despite all the bashing that it’s subject to. Since the 18z on Thursday it has been very consistent so it’ll be interesting to see how everything unfolds. Anyway, time for the pub run.

Indeed. I think the GFS can be a king at picking out certain pattern at times. Even though the GFS could be currently over-amplifying things, my guess is that the 18Z run will produce something similar. That’s what I hope anyway lol (but not a total disaster if not)

[bluearmy]

The n American trough at day 5 is more positively tilted than any of its last four runs ....not a dramatic difference  but it could have consequences for the retrogression at day 7/8 that the model has been consistent on .....

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously Scott,I'm glad someone like you as started posting...it only increases the level headed knowledge now have on here... we can't say for certain how the coming weeks will pan out,we are not clairvoyant...I would say to some who seriously doubt any cold weather is either No 1 those who consider past failures and assume its got to repeat the same pattern year after year..And no 2 those who like to wind up the cold lovers on here..seriously guys,go check out Weather Trending Jon Hammond thoughts for Winter...there is plenty to play for and bare in mind he is a met office trained forecaster,not to say he is correct,because we can't guarantee any outcome..so as silly as it may seem to say narnia is on its way,its just as futile to say complete Zonality is guaranteed!

Oh and wait for Summer when I bring my EC46 summer updates...it will still be....that model doesn't have a clue,and i will believe it when I see it...even when 1050mb is planted over us.. But like you and others say,the current set up is very positive...now its just playing the waiting game.

 

 

 

Thanks mate!

I think people just over react to every run. Its not needed. Its a case of watching the trends understanding the background signals and what youd expect to see and then factor in known bias. Id expect a middle ground but with a higher chance of being nearer Gfs which is good as this would stop the West based NAO if things are a little East of that 12z run

[tight isobar]

Well things definitely need alignment.. the diverging continues!!..   getting past 96hrs via suites atm .. is fraught!!!

[Matt H]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously Scott,I'm glad someone like you as started posting...it only increases the level headed knowledge now have on here... we can't say for certain how the coming weeks will pan out,we are not clairvoyant...I would say to some who seriously doubt any cold weather is either No 1 those who consider past failures and assume its got to repeat the same pattern year after year..And no 2 those who like to wind up the cold lovers on here..seriously guys,go check out Weather Trending Jon Hammond thoughts for Winter...there is plenty to play for and bare in mind he is a met office trained forecaster,not to say he is correct,because we can't guarantee any outcome..so as silly as it may seem to say narnia is on its way,its just as futile to say complete Zonality is guaranteed!

Oh and wait for Summer when I bring my EC46 summer updates...it will still be....that model doesn't have a clue,and i will believe it when I see it...even when 1050mb is planted over us.. But like you and others say,the current set up is very positive...now its just playing the waiting game.

 

 

 

Brilliant post, I completely agree. The quality of the posts in here from those with a high level of experience in meteorology has been brilliant this year so far and I thoroughly enjoy reading them. Sadly there’s always a minority of people that relish the ‘I told you so’ moment when a cold spell opportunity begins to unravel but that’s to be expected. As I’ve said before it takes no skill to constantly predict a zonal pattern just because it’s the default set up.

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously Scott,I'm glad someone like you as started posting...it only increases the level headed knowledge now have on here... we can't say for certain how the coming weeks will pan out,we are not clairvoyant...I would say to some who seriously doubt any cold weather is either No 1 those who consider past failures and assume its got to repeat the same pattern year after year..And no 2 those who like to wind up the cold lovers on here..seriously guys,go check out Weather Trending Jon Hammond thoughts for Winter...there is plenty to play for and bare in mind he is a met office trained forecaster,not to say he is correct,because we can't guarantee any outcome..so as silly as it may seem to say narnia is on its way,its just as futile to say complete Zonality is guaranteed!

Oh and wait for Summer when I bring my EC46 summer updates...it will still be....that model doesn't have a clue,and i will believe it when I see it...even when 1050mb is planted over us.. But like you and others say,the current set up is very positive...now its just playing the waiting game.

 

 

 

You can say that again!

Seriously, though, Scott is a realyy good addition to this forum. He's called mild when he sees it, he's called cold when he sees it and backs it up with proper analysis and knowledge and evidence

[Tom Jarvis]

Interesting new feature on the gfs 18z will this help or hinder 

[ANYWEATHER]

As far as I'm concerned we are looking at computer models adding into the equation blocking which computer models are absolutely rubbish at, and there you go we have the model output tonight.....tomorows output will be very different. ...

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

You can say that again!

Seriously, though, Scott is a realyy good addition to this forum. He's called mild when he sees it, he's called cold when he sees it and backs it up with proper analysis and knowledge and evidence

Thank you mate i appreciate it! Lets just see how it all pans out and enjoy. Its a fascinating period of model watching 

[Allseasons-Si]

@MATTWOLVES

did you get your finger stuck on the post button^^^

[northwestsnow]

GFS moving towards Euro ...

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

With the sort of outcome it has been showing, the GFS does look the most pleasing. Maybe a little West based on the 12Z run, but great amplification with decent heights over Greenland. Over the UK itself, the weather certainly wouldn’t be mild (except right at the end of that 12Z run)

Indeed. I think the GFS can be a king at picking out certain pattern at times. Even though the GFS could be currently over-amplifying things, my guess is that the 18Z run will produce something similar. That’s what I hope anyway lol (but not a total disaster if not)

This wont get as west based. The troughing is more positively aligned. It could push thinga further east. It couod also mean we get less of a robust block but another variation on the theme as it settles on the outcome.

Middle ground but more GFS than ECM.

Hopefully this means the pattern is a smidgen more east!

Edited December 19, 2020 by Scott Ingham