Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[fromey]

December 2010 vs december 2020

high pressure a bit further north in 2010 but you get the picture.

[Allseasons-Si]

Great run this,and i love it in here at the moment,...it's buzzing...

12z gfs>>>...18z gfs>>>

reload incoming at 288.

[tight isobar]

Not to clog-off topic the thread.. but as regard mets take on current raw operations/ensembles.. they will hold fire until the bitter end..(as reps of uk climatology meteorology ).. id shank a bet their mid range analysis.. changes @Massively.. in the nxt 48hrs!      O&o on this 1 now!

[Vikos]

GFS:         Me:

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not to clog-off topic the thread.. but as regard mets take on current raw operations/ensembles.. they will hold fire until the bitter end..(as reps of uk climatology meteorology ).. id shank a bet their mid range analysis.. changes @Massively.. in the nxt 48hrs!      O&o on this 1 now!

They’ll wait a bit longer I would suggest.

 

This run keeps on giving.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not to clog-off topic the thread.. but as regard mets take on current raw operations/ensembles.. they will hold fire until the bitter end..(as reps of uk climatology meteorology ).. id shank a bet their mid range analysis.. changes @Massively.. in the nxt 48hrs!      O&o on this 1 now!

I agree. I do happen to know for sure they get told to downplay things like snow until they are completely confident its happening. A met office forecaster is not going to blurt a cold spell on twitter its unprofessional 

[tight isobar]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

I agree. I do happen to know for sure they get told to downplay things like snow until they are completely confident its happening. A met office forecaster is not going to blurt a cold spell on twitter its unprofessional 

Scott.. I’ve seen this exaction b4 ..

[Allseasons-Si]

Good continuity from the gfs i will say that...

this is a really great chart though

has the gfs been on the Viagra of late or will it wake up on a stiff note in the morning?

[Tim Bland]

Most areas see some snow at some point in this run ️

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, fromey said:

December 2010 vs december 2020

high pressure a bit further north in 2010 but you get the picture.

2010 sig colder with thicknesses sub 520 ..... the trough on the 18z is 522/526 dam though I accept lower pressure will bring the freezing level down .....sub 522 dam removes any of the issues re white stuff .....

the new year trough drops down with thicknesses closer to 520 dam btw 

Edited December 19, 2020 by bluearmy

[Vikos]

Ok, last one, but this does remind me of something

 

[NewEra21]

16 minutes ago, fromey said:

December 2010 vs december 2020

high pressure a bit further north in 2010 but you get the picture.

If we could get this low/trough over us a little more stretched out, not such a ball shape. We'd be in a much better position to drag in the colder air and cut out any marginality.

Great charts, but that's my only minor gripe.

Edited December 19, 2020 by NewEra21

[That ECM]

Just now, Vikos said:

Ok, last one, but this does remind me of something

 

Do you mind, we are British

[Ice Day]

Mean at 186 

One word, solid!  Not much to dislike here.

[Uncertainty]

21 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It happened in 2010 the last time we had a Greenland High. It took ages for the ECM to come on board. The GFS is king with these north atlantic highs. Only this synoptic. All others ECM

That 1st sentence says it all.

“The last time we had a Greenland high”

A decade! 

Only exceptions in Winter I can think of are March 13 and 18 (except neither were in Winter lol). 
No wonder the models are bickering over it, it hardly ever happens! 

JMA looks a bit further west at 192 but has the big Atlantic ridge into Greenland.

The Vortex segment then heads Merrily SE

Producing this at day 11

 

Onto the 18z GEFS the mean heights are stronger to our WNW but slightly less amplified overall. Suggests to me that more members going with the amplification in general but less to the extreme extent of the 12z. 
 

18z first:
 
This does mean the mean trough is back a bit further East which brings more areas into play for the initial plunge.

I really would love to see this evolution come off in deep mid winter. Even though the uppers aren’t sensational the low thicknesses and heights should deliver plenty of snowy forecasting headaches.

[blizzard81]

The gfs is like a dog with a bone. Nobody has banged on about the gfs superiority over ecm with regards to north western atlantic blocking than me over the years. The ecm has been all over the shop these last 48hrs. The gfs has been as cool as a cucumber. No more to be said. 

[tight isobar]

The supports are robust this evening... ta-say the least @post-with the 500,s in a while!!!

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

That 1st sentence says it all.

“The last time we had a Greenland high”

A decade! 

Only exceptions in Winter I can think of are March 13 and 18 (except neither were in Winter lol). 
No wonder the models are bickering over it, it hardly ever happens! 

JMA looks a bit further west at 192 but has the big Atlantic ridge into Greenland.

The Vortex segment then heads Merrily SE

Producing this at day 11

 

Onto the 18z GEFS the mean heights are stronger to our WNW but slightly less amplified overall. Suggests to me that more members going with the amplification in general but less to the extreme extent of the 12z. 
 

18z first:
 
This does mean the mean trough is back a bit further East which brings more areas into play for the initial plunge.

I really would love to see this evolution come off in deep mid winter. Even though the uppers aren’t sensational the low thicknesses and heights should deliver plenty of snowy forecasting headaches.

Yeah it does say it all my friend haha!

Dont forget one chart for the 18z is for boxing day before amplification kicks in fully 

[Ice Day]

Well the 0-192 GEFS are looking excellent.  The first sub -10c 850's for my location now showing for Christmas Eve!

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z drops the trough clear of the UK SE and it's cold all the way through the run,...in fl of course

WHAT A RUN.

you don't see many charts like these i can tell ya

Edited December 19, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[terrier]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z drops the trough clear of the UK SE and it's cold all the way through the run,...in fl of course

WHAT A RUN.

you don't see many charts like these i can tell ya

Yeah just a shame it’s the gfs.

[tight isobar]

To add some minor weight to the equation.. here’s the plots upto jan4... we are rolling . Supports I’ll chuck up when filled.....

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z drops the trough clear of the UK SE and it's cold all the way through the run,...in fl of course

WHAT A RUN.

you don't see many charts like these i can tell ya

That last frame with icelandic heights is where i exoect us to be after a Greenland high if we get no flushing down of zonal winds before the SSW 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For those mot liking the ECM...18z shows very much how it may well develop as posted by Allseason

 

BFTP

Edited December 19, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bullseye]

37 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

And a big strat warming going on at just 246 now.  This is a stronger warming and slightly earlier compared to the 12z!

The NH profile doesn't need more than a nudge to completely bring it to pieces

As stated on here earlier, ignore the microscale at this point, it's all about the bigger picture.  

 

With regard to potential strat warming that GFS has been consistently running over last few days. Now that it's approaching some degree of warming around day 10 - is this backed up to some extent by ECM or JMA now it's coming into their range?

Feel free to move into strat if not suitable for here.