Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Weathizard]

Those earlier small improvements lead to this difference at day 7, beautiful

[bluearmy]

we don’t want the pattern drifting too far to the east at this range ....it will likely correct east nearer the time unless upstream is completely wrong and we see a marked Atlantic ridge which sharpens everything dramatically 

[That ECM]

Backtrack? The lady is not for turning.

[Day 10]

Cleaner looking evolution with heights getting sucked into Greenland & now only at 162.

[Tim Bland]

00z Vs 06z better separation / heights over Greenland. Hopefully this low can get further south ...

[BarometerCat]

At just +96 GFS suggests there could be chance of a bit of snow somewhere in UK?  

would be nice that’s all 

Edited December 20, 2020 by B-C

[Day 10]

Liking this run a lot more.

[Ice Day]

Out to 180 and this a stunner so far.  Frigid uppers approaching from the north, although they will get moderated a little before reaching us.

   

This *should* get even better from here on in!  Superb.

[Skullzrulerz]

Anyone up for some cold rain?

Really unfortunate giving all the upstream wonders at the moment

[bluearmy]

Thicknesses not quite as low beneath the 06z gfs op trough as previous runs 

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, B-C said:

At just +96 GFS suggests there could be chance of a bit snow somewhere in UK?  

would be nice that’s all 

Yes, a few runs have show the rain turning to snow in places. Probably high ground but a chance of seeing a few flakes Xmas eve ..

Edited December 20, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Howie]

Hopefully the trough is less rounded and is able to sink further south closer to the time, great run so far though 

[Ice Day]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

we don’t want the pattern drifting too far to the east at this range ....it will likely correct east nearer the time unless upstream is completely wrong and we see a marked Atlantic ridge which sharpens everything dramatically 

Yes, it's drifting east with each run.  We still have a buffer at the moment, but something to keep an eye on

[feb1991blizzard]

Every run starts of late like it looks like its going to be a stonker but the cold just misses us to the NW and would give us little snow, its so hard to get a really good Northerly without a proper Greenland high these days.

Edited December 20, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[IDO]

Looking like:

1// Initial toppler confirmed at d2-d5.

2// Atlantic ridge very likely building from d6-9.

3// Afterwards most likely collapse of ridge as further HP enters stage left:

4// What happens next?

[Howie]

There is cold air, it's just that it's all been pushed away from us and into Asia/North America. I noticed that a few weeks ago. I think with time we'll draw in more cold air

[Day 10]

I've seen enough til the 12z's, to be at this juncture at 144 all coldie's should be happy.

[Matt H]

These synoptics deserve a place in the National Gallery.

[SLEETY]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unbelievable isn't?

A proper Greenie High and still we can't get proper cold air in.

Maybe this is empirical evidence of global warming.

More likely its means the sea temperatures are higher around the UK, which is why the uppers aren't so cold need the easterly with shorter sea_ track to bring colder uppers

[NewEra21]

The ironic thing is, Xmas Eve we'll have colder air over us than some of these awesome charts above show that look so much better  

[fujita5]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unbelievable isn't?

A proper Greenie High and still we can't get proper cold air in.

Maybe this is empirical evidence of global warming.

Agreed, it's really frustrating, but if we keep the right synoptics in place the cold will filter in. Might be a long game though.

Hopefully the pieces will fall right with any SSW and we can maintain the flow from the North/North East

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unbelievable isn't?

A proper Greenie High and still we can't get proper cold air in.

Maybe this is empirical evidence of global warming.

Unfortunately the Arctic air is simply being dumped into the north Atlantic whilst the U.K. ends up in a chilly cyclonic flow. It is also becoming less likely that we can get a link between the Atlantic ridge and the declining Arctic high (Looks likely to help rebuild the ridge over the Urals. So for the moment it is a case of waiting and hoping we get clean cold air advection from the north and not either get a more polar maritime source or the trough stuck over us.

Edited December 20, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[swfc]

Gfs 6z at day ten is looking excellent towards the north Atlantic. Much better Heighths and hopefully dropping lower Heighths sse. All fi and subject to change but pretty good imo

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 06 z ensemble mean Christmas Eve 850 s

I'm still pretty interested in the " reliable " timeframe of 102 hours.  That is a very good mean for Christmas Eve. 

Wintry showers and some snow likely for a few lucky locations if we get precipitation. 

[TSNWK]

Ridge topple, ridge topple and is this ridge number 3 at 234.. up to this point we are a couple points away from decent 850s -4 as an average when we need -6 I suggest.