Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I also want to clear up confusion about the word zonality and the whole concept of it.

 

I can be even clearer, as I have said before, the word zonality simply doesn’t exist!  Look it up in the dictionary...

[NewEra21]

The METO updates don't even make sense, one says Atlantic low pressure systems could make things stormy around new year with strong northerly winds . Then the other says it looks like high pressure will remain dominant over the UK, meaning dry and cold over most parts. 

 

Confused.com

Edited December 20, 2020 by NewEra21

[Borei]

Whilst we're between model runs, it seems appropriate for me to point out an irritating trend on this thread for a minority of individuals to ascribe climate change to every chart which doesn't show -5 850s over the UK, or to make un-supportable claims that the exact same synoptics 50 years ago would have yielded heavy snow or a deep freeze.

IMO Model output is never the place to drop in these comments, particularly as it's invariably based on cherry picking. It's a bit like someone claiming that the extreme and persistent anomalous cold over central and eastern Siberia indicates a coming ice age. 

 

 

[Sceptical]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice Post again.

This is the kind of setup that sees local hills do  well...

I posted earlier, hills across much of Northern England, moreso towards Scotland will,or could see some snowy weather in the coming weeks...

 

Snow, possibly lying, for parts of Grampian and Highlands and Eilean Siar from Tuesday onwards and not confined to the mountains. 

[swfc]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

The METO updates don't even make sense, one says Atlantic low pressure systems could makes things stormy around new year with strong northerly winds . Then the other says it looks like high pressure will remain dominant over the UK, meaning dry and cold over most parts. 

 

Confused.com

I wouldn't take much notice tbh. They cover most options in there forecastswell I'm going for a stonker of a run on the 12z runs, can feel it In my water

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I can be even clearer, as I have said before, the word zonality simply doesn’t exist!  Look it up in the dictionary...

Sure.. Again I am using a crude description of eddies using a localized zonal index. People always go against the mainstream with adjectives. It doesn't automatically mean the concept is wrong.

[The4Seasons]

7 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

The METO updates don't even make sense, one says Atlantic low pressure systems could makes things stormy around new year with strong northerly winds . Then the other says it looks like high pressure will remain dominant over the UK, meaning dry and cold over most parts. 

 

Confused.com

I wouldn't worry about what happens in the long range as this is will chop and change. They probably haven't updated it yet. Anyway let's get back to model talk or Mapantz will go Christmas crackers

Edited December 20, 2020 by The4Seasons

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

I wouldn't take much notice tbh. They cover most options in there forecastswell I'm going for a stonker of a run on the 12z runs, can feel it In my water

Yes  - but absolutely nothing past +144 maximum and FI is right out 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Snow, possibly lying, for parts of Grampian and Highlands and Eilean Siar from Tuesday onwards and not confined to the mountains. 

Yes Scotland will be winners over the coming weeks, hope the Scottish boys and girls get lots of snow!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are they?

I've not seen anything, I'll have a look...

Let's hope for upgrades im desperate to wheel out some gifs !!

EXETER UPDATE ALERT...READ IT...ohh my I've gone all giddy

 

[northwestsnow]

Lots of details for the pros incoming...

850s,dew points,lapse rates,ssts, the ingredients for snow,esp in marginal setups make for fascinating analysis....

Edited December 20, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

EXETER UPDATE ALERT...READ IT...ohh my I've gone all giddy

 

….increasing wintry showers.

[lassie23]

I don't think snow is allowed to travel into Tier 4 zones so rain for London

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

EXETER UPDATE ALERT...READ IT...ohh my I've gone all giddy

 

Yes and  my uncles me auntie!!! Here's hoping tho

Edited December 20, 2020 by swfc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

….increasing wintry showers.

I didn't fully read it, I passed out when they mentioned strong Nthly winds

[Mair Snaw]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Scotland will be winners over the coming weeks, hope the Scottish boys and girls get lots of snow!!

We will of course keep you updated.. the models for once seem to be ticking down nicely very few wobbles so hoping this is a good sign, i think the next 48hrs is going to be very interesting model watching indeed..

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

It's crazy we finally get a GH (or ridging at least) and everything falling into place, yet we barely scrape -4 to -5 uppers.

If all these great synoptics leave us with nothing, I just don't know anymore. We've got everything we crave and now no true cold air to pull in. 

You've got to laugh otherwise you'll cry

Just remember at this range the northerly shown over Christmas wasn't all that cold. It looks colder now though, although we still don't know 100% exactly how thing will pan out.

It's a little far out to look at, the micro details like 850 temps, or even where fronts or troughs will be. Just take notice of the patterns, other details are more important in closer time frames.

Edited December 20, 2020 by alexisj9

[phil nw.]

Hi all,

Anyone interested in discussing the met.outlook please go over here

Just so we can keep this thread on topic.

Thankyou.

[NewEra21]

One thing I hope to see in the upcoming runs is that low/trough that ends up on top of us, to not be quite so ball shaped. If we could stretch it out a bit we'd be open to pulling the colder air down quicker.

Obviously need to get the ridging in the Atlantic/Greenland first though. Mustn't count my chickens!

[phil nw.]

Latest fax at t84hrs for Weds.mid-day.Alongside the t96 chart showing the 850's

as expected at this range the fax going with raw outputs.Colder air to the north coming south on Christmas eve.as the ridge topples in.

Worth keeping an eye on the front straddling the UK.Where there is precipitation a few spots could see back edge snowfall if there is a decent undercut of cold air before it dries out.Dew points will drop below zero as the polar air moves in but often the air quickly dries out so maybe a short opportunity of seeing something.

Overall though still a colder looking pattern with the ens pretty steady for over a week now regarding the Christmas colder trend.

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

Snow charts from ECMWF 00z +144, +168, +192,+240h

   

 

Temps

     

Posting/picking precipitation charts @144+ out is pretty much pointless at the best of times .. let alone in a fine wire balancing game we sit in just now.   But I suppose everyone to their own

Edited December 20, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, the ec mean 06z is a little more amplified around greeny than its 00z run when it completes day 6. 

[Vikos]

36 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Posting precipitation charts @144+ out is pretty much pointless at the best of times .. let alone in a fine wire balancing game we sit in just now.   But I suppose everyone to their own

well, discussion of any charts @144+ is pointless then, as prediction %tage drops very quick after that landmark... especially in high dynamic conditions like now (butterfly-effects affecting mid-term prognosis) and the using a global model with a hughe mesh-width. Snowfall, at least in Germany, is mostly NOWCAST, snow sticking a second chapter (dew-points, ground temperture, ground conditons, global radiation). All that given, chances for a snow cover are yet not really given in big parts of ME low-lands (below 250m).

Edited December 20, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box removed

[TSNWK]

3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

How about go outside and have a walk, breezy here but dry so far, very enjoyable!

 

Absolutely John. Just back in from my favourite walk around Westerham and chart well.. and at 700ft I'm hoping that the north downs landscape will have a different view in the run up to new year.  Eyes down its show time

[SLEETY]

Expecting upgrades in the models this evening after the Met Update,models underplaying the 850 temps it appears.