Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Daniel*]

Everyone’s favourite model last to go with retrogression /amplified funny that

[Guest]

In the nearer term there's still interest on Wednesday as colder air digs in behind a straddling weather front. Some favoured spots could see rain turn to snow before the front clears/peters out  One to watch 

[Nick F]

Stronger wave-breaking over eastern seaboard / NW Atlantic on 12z GFS (and UKMO) compared to previous runs, thanks to a series of winter storms deepening over eastern N America, so we get a stronger mid-Atlantic  to Greenland block. 

Just need the vortex heading SE to Europe to clear a bit further east of the UK to tap into deeper cold though. This positioning of the trop vortex as heads to Europe still yet to be resolved that far off though. Be ideal if the centre of the vortex didn't stick so close to NE Scotland like 12z GFS though.

[Weathizard]

Simply sensational.

[Tim Bland]

I think it’s fair to see we are in proper Greenland high territory and not just a ridge now. IF we get to this point ; Those uppers will get lower and lower over the proceeding  days and will be conducive to snow everywhere eventually 

[Trom]

3 hours ago, bumpydogz said:

50% of them maybe? 

That would be the median not the mean 

[Matt H]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

I think it’s fair to see we are in proper Greenland high territory and not just a ridge now. IF we get to this point ; Those uppers will get lower and lower over the proceeding  days and will be conducive to snow everywhere eventually 

That chart is stunning, can’t believe we’re seeing synoptic charts like this still!

[Zak M]

"Winter is already over. See you all in 2021/22"

[ITSY]

The wave 2 action will be interesting - either we'll end up with a Westerly-based negative NAO (in FI I stress, long after a more conducive setup for most of us) or a reload push from the North like the 06z.  Either way, we're getting those building blocks in place with xmodel  support which  is good to see! 

Edited December 20, 2020 by ITSY

[tight isobar]

Looking through the Euro window.. synopticaly perfect.. txt book AT block/format 

[sheikhy]

I mean this is getting ridiculously good from the gfs!ukmo has moved towards it!!!will ecm do same!!!a big win for gfs if this happenz!!wheres the doubts now gfs or euros?

[radiohead]

So frustrating to see fantastic output like this...

With uppers in the range of just -2 to -4 at the same timeframe

The positioning of the area of low pressure is so frustrating. The deep cold air is held away to our northwest. If only the low pressure was further southeast...That's what I am hoping to see in future runs.

[Northwest NI]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think it’s fair to see we are in proper Greenland high territory and not just a ridge now. IF we get to this point ; Those uppers will get lower and lower over the proceeding  days and will be conducive to snow everywhere eventually 

Yes a perfect Greeny high on that chart. Anyone going to venture into saying this  is now nailed on?

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

Just need the vortex heading SE to Europe to clear a bit further east of the UK to tap into deeper cold though. This positioning of the trop vortex as heads to Europe still yet to be resolved that far off though. Be ideal if the centre of the vortex didn't stick so close to NE Scotland like 12z GFS though.

We know the form here is for things to be pushed further south and east nearer the time. Remember the snow a couple of weeks back that started in Wales and the north west?...it moved south and east with every run and ended up in Lincolnshire and Essex! Trend is our friend here! It will be Sod’s law for this not to happen this tome though! 

[Weathizard]

Reverse Zonal incoming?   

[topo]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 174,it is impressive now,almost 2010-esk!!!

 

Really??

Can't see anything impressive, all Europe 2m temperature is plus except for Lapland. The massive difference is that high in the western Russia part. During 2010 it was a low sending siberian cold into Europe.

Now instead we have a low rotating itself and sending relatively warm winds to the entire Europe. Only Iceland gets benefited 

You can see that in 850temp deviation in day 10.

Colder than usual only in the ocean

Edited December 20, 2020 by topo

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

We know the form here is for things to be pushed further south and east nearer the time. Remember the snow a couple of weeks back that started in Wales and the north west?...it moved south and east with every run and ended up in Lincolnshire and Essex! Trend is our friend here! It will be Sod’s law for this not to happen this tome though! 

Yeah we'll end up with a UK high by t0  

[weirpig]

Stunning looking wise.  However the uppers t this moment are a slight concern    wit the low anchored to the east of Scotland   cold uppers go into the  Atlantic.   Still many things to be resolved   but usually there is always a corrction east with such features.  Could be an epic christmas period.

[Met4Cast]

People are far too quick to jump to comparisons with 2010. The fact of the matter is this run despite the glorious blocking doesn't get proper cold anywhere close to the UK, a familiar theme so far this winter.

Lower sea ice + a warming world means northerlies just aren't potent enough for the UK unless it's an absolute perfect northerly, there's just too much modification. 40 years ago this pattern would be bitterly cold, as it happens we barely hit -5c at 850hPa, nothing like 2010 whatsoever. 

[topo]

850temp uppers in day 10 is just a joke 

Reminds me of late march...

 

[tight isobar]

I Can we open a pessimist thread?? Twinned with magic fm playing in the background really depressing sounds!! And also link a reminder quotation that... 850hpa.. lean then drop under such Synoptics at a rapid pace.... It’s infuriating at times !!!.. some are clearly stuck in the woods with flow- and dynamics

Edited December 20, 2020 by tight isobar

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, topo said:

Really??

Can't see anything impressive, all Europe 2m temperature is plus except for Lapland. The massive difference is that high in the western Russia part. During 2010 it was a low sending siberian cold into Europe.

Now instead we have a low rotating itself and sending relatively warm winds to the entire Europe. Only Iceland gets benefited 

Can we stop with this please? Of course you're right - this isn't Dec 2010 and nobody should be under that illusion. Must of us won't be around for when it happens again...it is that rare.

BUT. Firstly, looking at snow and 2m temps at this range is silly - it never materialises. Secondly, look at the map if you wish to and you'll see Scotland and N England and N Ireland are covered with snow. Thirdly,  with northerlies/northwesterlies/PM airmasses we're not looking for -15 uppers - we're looking for small disturbances in the airflow that only show up much nearer the time. Fourthly, all of this could go pear-shaped yet. Fifthly, we might be looking at multiple bites at the cherry here with a fantastic initial setup (see FI 2ndary amplification and the likely SSW). Sixthly,  none of this even mattes.  It could go wrong but who cares? It's a hobby in the middle of a pandemic and I for one am just interested to see some optimism in our lives for a change. It might go south but so what! 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, topo said:

Really??

Can't see anything impressive, all Europe 2m temperature is plus except for Lapland. The massive difference is that high in the western Russia part. During 2010 it was a low sending siberian cold into Europe.

Now instead we have a low rotating itself and sending relatively warm winds to the entire Europe. Only Iceland gets benefited 

You can see that in 850temp deviation in day 10.

Colder than usual only in the ocean

LOL

I was commenting on the Atlantic heights that look similar to 2010,...ready it again without tinted glasses on

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, topo said:

850temp uppers in day 10 is just a joke 

Reminds me of late march...

 

Wont matter under deep low pressure and reduced day light hours - 3/4 would likely be ok. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Can we stop with this please? Of course you're right - this isn't Dec 2010 and nobody should be under that illusion. Must of us won't be around for when it happens again...it is that rare.

BUT. Firstly, looking at snow and 2m temps at this range is silly - it never materialises. Secondly, look at the map if you wish to and you'll see Scotland and N England and N Ireland are covered with snow. Thirdly,  with northerlies/northwesterlies/PM airmasses we're not looking for -15 uppers - we're looking for small disturbances in the airflow that only show up much nearer the time. Fourthly, all of this could go pear-shaped yet. Fifthly, we might be looking at multiple bites at the cherry here with a fantastic initial setup (see FI 2ndary amplification and the likely SSW). Sixthly,  none of this even mattes.  It could go wrong but who cares? It's a hobby in the middle of a pandemic and I for one am just interested to see some optimism in our lives for a change. It might go south but so what! 

Post of the day for me and that’s amongst all thr lovely Synoptics we are seeing.. and as for 850s what an absolute lovely problem to have... and I think we have recently seen how it is possible to shave a couple of points of as we get closer to get the vast majority of us something wintry