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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted
32 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Brilliant to see hardly any of the GEFS 12z ensemble members heading above 0C after Christmas, definitely a seasonal feel on the way soon.:cold-emoji:

33F418A9-A040-47CB-BD3D-07EB2D3C91B4.png

 

The consistency in this is unbelievable really. Very rare on here to see such a prolonged projection of considerably below average uppers, tightly packed across the ensembles, most cold enough for the white stuff even without sub 528 dam. Don't mention it to anyone though!  

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Just before the ec as a side note the 12z gfs control way in fi gives an easterly from Europe to the USA

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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Posted

Some posts are starting to go magically missing, Let's keep discussion on topic please and for the very few that are, Please stop bickering... Onwards and upwards ☺️

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danthetan Enthusiast

danthetan

Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
Posted
26 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It brings freezing temperatures lower to the suface. So it takes away the need for as much elevation

There is a table that was kicking about on the forum years back which illustrated this perfectly. Something to do with the density of air as it cools. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

ECM at T120 compared with UKMO and GFS:

BD7E6A25-1F88-44C4-B46E-FB4C2E0E795B.thumb.png.44a10dec3850a8cfadd8039caf8aed08.pngB8F05C92-2E9B-46B0-9F54-691FA5C92B66.thumb.png.2e482123740888b178c259883beaa02a.pngA943FE82-0D28-4944-9447-7F15A84988C9.thumb.gif.abf4df8689f07d93f98cafbaefc19e4b.gif

ECM siding with GFS now, think we can call a full house.

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T120 compared with UKMO and GFS:

BD7E6A25-1F88-44C4-B46E-FB4C2E0E795B.thumb.png.44a10dec3850a8cfadd8039caf8aed08.pngB8F05C92-2E9B-46B0-9F54-691FA5C92B66.thumb.png.2e482123740888b178c259883beaa02a.pngA943FE82-0D28-4944-9447-7F15A84988C9.thumb.gif.abf4df8689f07d93f98cafbaefc19e4b.gif

ECM siding with GFS now, think we can call a full house.

I’m not celebrating until the Navgem is on board , Also if your a fan or warm uppers Navgem is your model

7A376916-7C4E-4C09-8EF9-FECA1209BAF8.png

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mother nature rocks Aficionado

mother nature rocks

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T120 compared with UKMO and GFS:

BD7E6A25-1F88-44C4-B46E-FB4C2E0E795B.thumb.png.44a10dec3850a8cfadd8039caf8aed08.pngB8F05C92-2E9B-46B0-9F54-691FA5C92B66.thumb.png.2e482123740888b178c259883beaa02a.pngA943FE82-0D28-4944-9447-7F15A84988C9.thumb.gif.abf4df8689f07d93f98cafbaefc19e4b.gif

ECM siding with GFS now, think we can call a full house.

Yup- out the 3 looks like ECM is most amplified at 120!! Happy days

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

Ridging into NW Europe extends further east than the GFS (day 5) - could this lead to the track of the low to be more easterly? Would be beneficial for us.

Edited by mulzy
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I’m not celebrating until the Navgem is on board , Also if your a fan or warm uppers Navgem is your model

7A376916-7C4E-4C09-8EF9-FECA1209BAF8.png

And, what with Uppersgate being still unresolved, I'll wait until I see snow blowing past my window!:santa-emoji:

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Ecm best at T144, such underrated model in this scenario.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

I’m not celebrating until the Navgem is on board , Also if your a fan or warm uppers Navgem is your model

7A376916-7C4E-4C09-8EF9-FECA1209BAF8.png

my main hate is warm 850's, still believe they're the key, convective from W/NW here needs to be -10, E'ly convective around -7, frontal from S/SW can be -3

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

ECM and gfs @144.

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.3985330ca11cc0c31e980a4daf3d7113.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.3f2a1afcaf86e2da2f1d05c2835ddf32.png

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

ECMWF 12z joins the GFS! :santa-emoji: Just need the pattern to correct further east now...

8F02A9FB-E0A6-4AC8-892E-2AAE8BAAF824.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted
2 minutes ago, NeilN said:

The BBC Countryfile forecast - where are they getting their temperatures from? 

Probably from the correct place.

I'm sceptical  - but when did a fabled Polar LP last deliver?

Nice chart for 6 days.

h500slp.thumb.png.536bb6159791609c686a5bd410313577.png

 

 

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

A Christmas cracker - Kevin McCallister agrees!

image.thumb.png.962909049790babe0b86524dc12bdb04.pngimage.thumb.png.0da0323c917438a60ea96a96daa3f4e6.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Well welll what was that being said of the gfs!!!the damn model has smashed both ukmo and ecm out the park!!!!welcome to the gfs world ecm and ukmo!!infact its joined the gfs to such an extent thats its over amplified❄

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
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Posted

GFS doubters are looking very silly now   this could be a massive triumph for this model maybe its finest hour....

2492953E-CBB0-4556-B341-93071EDC21FE.thumb.png.eba43ddcf4defbfaa7d578805e9edbb4.png

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

GFS doubters are looking very silly now   this could be a massive triumph for this model maybe its finest hour....

2492953E-CBB0-4556-B341-93071EDC21FE.thumb.png.eba43ddcf4defbfaa7d578805e9edbb4.png

It is only one run though. It may well go back to its original solution tomorrow

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

For newbies. Check out this jet stream.  

64BA47A2-88A9-45DA-B6D7-9B9054DDB477.png

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